The #3 hitter and other batting order riddles

[Bellhorn04]

I thought it was time to give the popular and controversial topic of the 3 hitter its own thread.

 

To summarize the salient points of the controversy:

 

-Until the rise of baseball analytics it was generally accepted that the best overall hitter on the team should hit third.

 

-Recent statistical analysis, however, has cast a lot of doubt on the validity of this policy. The analysis has shown that the 3 spot is not the optimal place for your best hitter, largely because of the number of times that spot comes up with two outs and the bases empty. The analysis suggests that the 4 and 5 spots provide more RBI opportunities, and that the 3 spot should be occupied by the team's fifth-best hitter, after the 1, 2, 4 and 5 spots are filled.

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing I have to offer in the way of data is some quick numbers I dug up on J. D. Martinez as a member of the Red Sox.

 

In his 1 + seasons with the team, J. D. has been used almost equally in the 3 and 4 spots, which is sort of interesting in itself.

 

Total PA 882

3 spot 432

4 spot 447

9 spot 3 (don't remember this)

 

OPS

3 spot .967

4 spot 1.024

 

RBI

3 spot 90

4 spot 72

 

So in this one very isolated, small-sample case, it would appear that JD has had more RBI opportunities in the 3 spot, since he has driven in more runs with a lower OPS.

 

Not drawing any conclusions from one small-sample case, obviously. Just throwing it out there, as the saying goes.

[notin]

One thing some analyticists like John Dewan concluded is using the third spot for your best or one of your best hitters is fine, but have some speed there. Basically what he was getting at was - someone who won’t GIDP. If this is accomplished via speed or extreme flyball tendencies, I don’t think it should matter.

 

I like Dewan’s thoughts better, since dropping the one of the best hitters down 2 spots can cost about 36 plate appearances.

 

On the Sox, I like Devers for the third spot...

[S5Dewey]

I thought it was time to give the popular and controversial topic of the 3 hitter its own thread.

 

To summarize the salient points of the controversy:

 

-Until the rise of baseball analytics it was generally accepted that the best overall hitter on the team should hit third.

 

-Recent statistical analysis, however, has cast a lot of doubt on the validity of this policy. The analysis has shown that the 3 spot is not the optimal place for your best hitter, largely because of the number of times that spot comes up with two outs and the bases empty. The analysis suggests that the 4 and 5 spots provide more RBI opportunities, and that the 3 spot should be occupied by the team's fifth-best hitter, after the 1, 2, 4 and 5 spots are filled.

 

Without analysis, it would appear to me that the #3 hitter has a better chance of getting up with someone on base than does the #2 hitter. Now, if you want to swap the #2 & #3 hitter that's fine as long as the (previous) #3 has a better OBP than the previous #2. But then you're back where you started from with your best OBP people up before the #3 hitter.

 

Lengthy analysis aside, I'm willing to sacrifice a little OBP in my #3 guy in exchange for a better SLG. In short, put the guys who are on base a lot up first, then follow them with the guys with the best OPS.

 

Rocket science?

Edited June 5, 2019 by S5Dewey

[Kimmi]

So much to say, so little time.

 

The main thing to remember and that I've harped on many times is that line up changes make very little difference. A manager can literally pull his line up out of a hat every game and barely miss a beat.

 

Historically, the most misused line up spot has been the #2 hitter. This has historically been a spot for someone who can 'handle the bat', and more often than not, had a rather low OBP. It looks like the tide is finally turning on this idea, thanks to analytics.

[Kimmi]

As far as the #3 hitter goes, I can best say what I want to say by quoting from The Book.

 

"The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."

[Kimmi]

The book also says that you should line up your hitters from highest OBP to lowest OBP, or in other words, the importance of avoiding outs, in the following order:

 

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

[Slasher9]

For my 13U I am batting OBP guy lead off, gap hitter 2nd, and my HR hitter 3rd...

[Bellhorn04]

For my 13U I am batting OBP guy lead off, gap hitter 2nd, and my HR hitter 3rd...

 

Now I understand why you seem a little harsh on Cora to me.

 

You're a manager!

[S5Dewey]

As far as the #3 hitter goes, I can best say what I want to say by quoting from The Book.

 

"The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."

 

Doesn't this imply that the leadoff hitter and #2 guy have a low OBP? Who manages that way?? I sure didn't!

[notin]

Doesn't this imply that the leadoff hitter and #2 guy have a low OBP? Who manages that way?? I sure didn't!

 

 

Even players with high OBP are still kept off base around 60% of the time...

[S5Dewey]

Even players with high OBP are still kept off base around 60% of the time...

 

But... players with a lower OBP are kept off base more than 60% of the time. I like my guys on base.

[moonslav59]

As far as the #3 hitter goes, I can best say what I want to say by quoting from The Book.

 

"The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."

 

I get this, but the extra 30-35 PAs the 3 hitter gets over the 5 hitter seemingly would outweigh this, and if the 3 guys also gets on base a lot more than the 5 guys, he will set the table for the next guys to get more rbis.

 

Maybe part of the reason the #5 gets more rbi opportunities is because you put a great hitter up before him (in the 3 slot).

 

I'm not discounting the studies, but those 30 or so extra PAs help more than just for rbis.

 

 

 

[cp176]

I get this, but the extra 30-35 PAs the 3 hitter gets over the 5 hitter seemingly would outweigh this, and if the 3 guys also gets on base a lot more than the 5 guys, he will set the table for the next guys to get more rbis.

 

Maybe part of the reason the #5 gets more rbi opportunities is because you put a great hitter up before him (in the 3 slot).

 

I'm not discounting the studies, but those 30 or so extra PAs help more than just for rbis.

 

 

 

 

I apologize up front. blame Bellhorn he has led me here. Discounting the first inning, what hitter comes to the plate more frequently than the rest with runners on base? I want my best hitter - what ever this might actually mean - to have the greatest chance to come to the plate in high leverage situations with runners on base. To say that it is the #2 hitter in your lineup, gives more credit to the guys at the back of our order I guess than i do. Our #8 and #9 guys don't seem to hit so good. For the record, think I'll go along with Cora on this one but once again, i think that JD is our most productive hitter. third or fourth seems to work pretty well.

[cp176]

I apologize up front. blame Bellhorn he has led me here. Discounting the first inning, what hitter comes to the plate more frequently than the rest with runners on base? I want my best hitter - what ever this might actually mean - to have the greatest chance to come to the plate in high leverage situations with runners on base. To say that it is the #2 hitter in your lineup, gives more credit to the guys at the back of our order I guess than i do. Our #8 and #9 guys don't seem to hit so good. For the record, think I'll go along with Cora on this one but once again, i think that JD is our most productive hitter. third or fourth seems to work pretty well.

 

Oh wait, i forgot to add something for Slasher. I'm not googling it because I'm just not in to that sort of thing, but I would be pretty surprised if I found out that in the world of the ancients that there weren't studies proving that the earth was flat. theories are proven and disproven everyday. maybe if more intelligent people really gave a s***, there would be theories out there proving that the best hitter in your lineup should bat third. It just doesn't seem to carry as much weight as proving that the sun is the center of our solar system did. Oh well! lol

[notin]

But... players with a lower OBP are kept off base more than 60% of the time. I like my guys on base.

 

 

Everyone does.

 

The point is that even with the two best OBP hitters in most teams batting 1 and 2, the third hitter will still have a lot of “2 out no one on” at bats.

 

Unless your third hitter is Joe Carter, who got to bat behind Roberto Alomar and Tony Gwynn for a while there...

[S5Dewey]

Everyone does.

 

The point is that even with the two best OBP hitters in most teams batting 1 and 2, the third hitter will still have a lot of “2 out no one on” at bats.

 

 

He may at the beginning of the game but theoretically the #1 hitter might be in the running for that distinction too. He's got what may be the three weakest hitters on the team up ahead of him. Therefore the #1 hitter probably comes to bat with one or two outs more than anyone on the team, and the #2 hitter may be second in that distinction. That leave the #3 guy with the two best hitters up before him and therefore with the best chance to drive in runs.

[notin]

He may at the beginning of the game but theoretically the #1 hitter might be in the running for that distinction too. He's got what may be the three weakest hitters on the team up ahead of him. Therefore the #1 hitter probably comes to bat with one or two outs more than anyone on the team, and the #2 hitter may be second in that distinction. That leave the #3 guy with the two best hitters up before him and therefore with the best chance to drive in runs.

 

 

Yes but it comes down to the likelihood of those cases. The #3 hitter is set up that it could happen to him 172 times right away. Certainly the leadoff and 2spot hitters will have their share as well in later innings. But some stars do have to align, like #7 hitter making the third out the inning before...

[S5Dewey]

Yes but it comes down to the likelihood of those cases. The #3 hitter is set up that it could happen to him 172 times right away. Certainly the leadoff and 2spot hitters will have their share as well in later innings. But some stars do have to align, like #7 hitter making the third out the inning before...

In the first inning the leadoff hitter has the best chance of coming to bat with no outs on the board. (DUH!) Next is the #2 hitter, then the #3 hitter. After the order turns over the #3 hitter probably has the least chance of coming to bat with outs already on the board since he has the two best hitters on the team up ahead of him. That also means that he has the best chance of coming up with runners on base, and that's where I want my OPS guy.

[cp176]

In the first inning the leadoff hitter has the best chance of coming to bat with no outs on the board. (DUH!) Next is the #2 hitter, then the #3 hitter. After the order turns over the #3 hitter probably has the least chance of coming to bat with outs already on the board since he has the two best hitters on the team up ahead of him. That also means that he has the best chance of coming up with runners on base, and that's where I want my OPS guy.

 

Your approach is too logical and makes too much sense. We need to find some old stat master to support us.

[moonslav59]

In the first inning the leadoff hitter has the best chance of coming to bat with no outs on the board. (DUH!) Next is the #2 hitter, then the #3 hitter. After the order turns over the #3 hitter probably has the least chance of coming to bat with outs already on the board since he has the two best hitters on the team up ahead of him. That also means that he has the best chance of coming up with runners on base, and that's where I want my OPS guy.

 

Actually, the #4 or 5 guys would, since if the top 3 guys have an OBP above .333, and our do and then some, chances are better for the #4 and 5 hitters. One big example is when the first 2 make out and the number 3 guys (with a .375 OBP) gets on base for the number 4 guy.

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake,let's say the top 2 guys have a .333 OBP, and C represents a BB or hit. Here are the 9 combinations for the 3 hitter coming up (assuming no DP):

 

AA (2 outs none on)

AB (2 outs none on)

AC (1 out- one on)

BA (2 outs none on)

BB (2 outs none on)

BC (1 out- one one)

CA (1 out- one on)

CB (one out-one on)

CC (no outs- 2 on)

 

4 out of 9 times, the #3 guy comes up with none on in the first inning.

 

It gets more complicated for the #4 hitter in the first inning, and there are times he doesn't even get up in the first and leads off the next inning.

 

Of course, when the OBPs are better than .333, the odds go up the #3 guy gets up with men on.

[notin]

In the first inning the leadoff hitter has the best chance of coming to bat with no outs on the board. (DUH!) Next is the #2 hitter, then the #3 hitter. After the order turns over the #3 hitter probably has the least chance of coming to bat with outs already on the board since he has the two best hitters on the team up ahead of him. That also means that he has the best chance of coming up with runners on base, and that's where I want my OPS guy.

 

There is certainly something to that.

 

My only caveat is I want my best hitter who is least likely to GIDP, either through speed or flyball tendencies...

[Kimmi]

The only thing I have to offer in the way of data is some quick numbers I dug up on J. D. Martinez as a member of the Red Sox.

 

In his 1 + seasons with the team, J. D. has been used almost equally in the 3 and 4 spots, which is sort of interesting in itself.

 

Total PA 882

3 spot 432

4 spot 447

9 spot 3 (don't remember this)

 

OPS

3 spot .967

4 spot 1.024

 

RBI

3 spot 90

4 spot 72

 

So in this one very isolated, small-sample case, it would appear that JD has had more RBI opportunities in the 3 spot, since he has driven in more runs with a lower OPS.

 

Not drawing any conclusions from one small-sample case, obviously. Just throwing it out there, as the saying goes.

 

One thing about this is that you can't look at JD's numbers in a vacuum. The argument that you don't put your best hitter in the 3 hole is an argument for the optimal line up, not just what works best a particular hitter.

 

It's not just about RBIs. It's also about runs scored and creating runs.

[Kimmi]

Doesn't this imply that the leadoff hitter and #2 guy have a low OBP? Who manages that way?? I sure didn't!

 

Not at all. OBP is king when it comes to the #1, #4, and #2 hitters, in that order.

 

Much of it is based on the first inning, but because of that inning, the #3 hitter comes up to bat with 2 outs and no one on more than any other position.

[Kimmi]

I get this, but the extra 30-35 PAs the 3 hitter gets over the 5 hitter seemingly would outweigh this, and if the 3 guys also gets on base a lot more than the 5 guys, he will set the table for the next guys to get more rbis.

 

Maybe part of the reason the #5 gets more rbi opportunities is because you put a great hitter up before him (in the 3 slot).

 

I'm not discounting the studies, but those 30 or so extra PAs help more than just for rbis.

 

 

The #4 hitter often becomes a lead off hitter in the 2nd inning, and will presumably get on base at a good clip. The #5 hitter, therefore, has more opportunities to drive in a run than the #3 guy.

 

Getting more PAs in the #3 spot is a valid point, and 'balances out' some of the effect of putting the better hitter in the #5 hole. That is why, in the end, batting order makes so little difference. For every move you make to gain an advantage, there is a countering effect that takes away much of the advantage.

[Kimmi]

In the first inning the leadoff hitter has the best chance of coming to bat with no outs on the board. (DUH!) Next is the #2 hitter, then the #3 hitter. After the order turns over the #3 hitter probably has the least chance of coming to bat with outs already on the board since he has the two best hitters on the team up ahead of him. That also means that he has the best chance of coming up with runners on base, and that's where I want my OPS guy.

 

Even if that is the case, which it may or may not be, you are wasting a lot of potential in that first time through the order.

 

Also, if the #1 and 2 guys are getting on base in the latter innings, the #4 guy still has a very good chance of getting his at bat with those guys on base.

[moonslav59]

9 spot 3 (don't remember this)

 

My guess: as a PH'er

[moonslav59]

One thing about this is that you can't look at JD's numbers in a vacuum. The argument that you don't put your best hitter in the 3 hole is an argument for the optimal line up, not just what works best a particular hitter.

 

It's not just about RBIs. It's also about runs scored and creating runs.

 

Exactly. Creating runs is not just about RBI's. It's about runs scored and increasing the odds of runs being scored by doing something.

 

There will always be exceptions to any rule, especially when we are talking about very marginal differentials between just about all batting slots near each other in the line-up.

 

It's also about how many more (or less) runs might have occurred with the alternate choice to JD in the 3rd or 4th slot and vice versa.

 

Maybe JD created 22 more runs in the 3rd slot than the 4th, but when he batted 4th, the guy up 3rd created 23 more.

 

[S5Dewey]

4 out of 9 times, the #3 guy comes up with none on in the first inning.

 

 

This says it better than I could have. Five times out of nine, more than half the time, the #3 guy comes up with someone on in the first inning. That's why I want a hitter, an OPS guy there.