Register now to remove this ad

Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst ... 234
Results 46 to 49 of 49

Thread: The #3 hitter and other batting order riddles

  1. #46
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    26,666
    One final note from Jack Moore at Fangraphs:

    "When it comes to sabermetric studies, no single item sees more energy expended with less gain than the analysis of batting orders. The Book basically opened and shut the door on the issue: the best three hitters should bat first, second, and fourth, but even the most egregious of lineup errors won’t cost a team more than a win. It’s also more important to split lefties to avoid LOOGYs than it is to get that perfectly chained lineup."

  2. #47
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    26,666
    Whether one is a fan of analytics or not, I think we all have to agree that the argument that managers have always put their best hitter in the #3 spot and, therefore, it must be the right thing to do is a really weak argument.

    For one, how would anyone know that there wasn't a better lineup? Someone explain to me how, for all those years, they knew that putting the best hitter in the #3 spot gave resulted in the most production.

    Remember, these are the same managers that were at the same time putting one of their weakest hitters in the #2 hole. I think we all agree now, thanks to analytics, that that was a pretty poor decision, even though 'that's the way it's always been done'.

    For two, run scoring environments change. Players change. What worked best in the 1950s might not necessarily be what worked best in the 1980s. Did anyone bother to check?

  3. #48
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Halifax
    Posts
    46,973
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    For two, run scoring environments change. Players change. What worked best in the 1950s might not necessarily be what worked best in the 1980s. Did anyone bother to check?
    Check what and where, Kimmi?
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  4. #49
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Posts
    26,666
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Check what and where, Kimmi?
    My point is that until the stat geeks started doing their thing, everyone assumed that the way the managers were managing was correct because that's the way that it's always been done. No one ever questioned it. No one ever actually 'checked' through any kind of statistical analysis. So how do they know what was right or wrong?

    The analytics guys questioned these things and started looking for answers. They found many that contradict conventional wisdom.

    Studies might show that over the next 10 years, the best hitter should hit in the #3 spot, due to Launch Ball or some other reason. Then again, they might come to the same conclusion as those found in The Book. But at least they will continue to search for answers.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •