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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

  1. #1831
    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    Is anyone interested in chatting offseason free agent signings yet? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

    Assuming they don't bring Porcello back, we need at least one starting pitcher (Sale-Price-ERod-Eovalid-?).
    They need potentially 5 quality relievers.
    We can move Mookie to center field (if he isn't traded), and then we need a right fielder unless we put JDM there.
    At least one infielder.
    A back up catcher.

    That's a lot of needs, so they may have to bargain shop

    Okay, hunting through the free agent list, here's what I've got:
    Starting pitcher: How about bringing Wade Miley back? He's only making 4.5 million this year, has a 3.11 ERA, and an 11-4 record. Otherwise Michael Pineda looks like a decent pickup.
    Relief pitchers: I won't even try...
    Outfielder: Nick Castellanos
    Infielder: Eric Sogard
    Catcher: Austin Romine
    Pineda (4 years) and Romine (8 years) have long time Yankee stench that never seems to wash off.

    And while that part is said sort of jokingly, I'm hard pressed to come up with any former Yankee, especially one with any measurable time in NY, who has done squat in Boston.
    The Yankees could go 0-162 and it wouldn't be enough

  2. #1832
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    Quote Originally Posted by illinoisredsox View Post
    Pineda (4 years) and Romine (8 years) have long time Yankee stench that never seems to wash off.

    And while that part is said sort of jokingly, I'm hard pressed to come up with any former Yankee, especially one with any measurable time in NY, who has done squat in Boston.
    Tony Armas never pitched a game for the Red Sox, but his contribution was immeasurable since he was a key component in trading for Pedro Martinez. Reportedly Steinbrenner was furious over Boston’s acquisition and asked his front office how they couldn’t get Pedro. He was told “because we didn’t have Armas,” whom they dealt to Boston for Mike Stanley...

  3. #1833
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    There is no arguing that we would be a better team if the 1/2 guys pitched to expectations, and I am not denying that. As I said, we are stuck with those guys for contractual reasons. That being said, DD didn't fix or upgrade those parts of the staff that was fixable through acquisition. Also, Cora took way too long to realize that he has to drop Porcello from the rotation, and it looks like he is getting another start on Friday. Ughhh.
    There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  4. #1834
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    Is anyone interested in chatting offseason free agent signings yet? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

    Assuming they don't bring Porcello back, we need at least one starting pitcher (Sale-Price-ERod-Eovalid-?).
    They need potentially 5 quality relievers.
    We can move Mookie to center field (if he isn't traded), and then we need a right fielder unless we put JDM there.
    At least one infielder.
    A back up catcher.

    That's a lot of needs, so they may have to bargain shop

    Okay, hunting through the free agent list, here's what I've got:
    Starting pitcher: How about bringing Wade Miley back? He's only making 4.5 million this year, has a 3.11 ERA, and an 11-4 record. Otherwise Michael Pineda looks like a decent pickup.
    Relief pitchers: I won't even try...
    Outfielder: Nick Castellanos
    Infielder: Eric Sogard
    Catcher: Austin Romine
    I say we should sign zero FA's, unless they are near min cost. Reset the tax and go for broke in 2021 or 2022 (hopefully, with Betts still on board).
    Sox 4 Ever

  5. #1835
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.
    Anybody is better, even Moreland.
    Sox 4 Ever

  6. #1836
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I say we should sign zero FA's, unless they are near min cost. Reset the tax and go for broke in 2021 or 2022 (hopefully, with Betts still on board).
    Isn't the idea of resetting the tax in 2020 and then going for broke in 2021 a little like fasting and then splurging?

    I say that because you're basically getting yourself right back into trouble, assuming you're signing a few free agents to contracts more than a couple of years.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  7. #1837
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    There is really no one to take Porcello's place tonight.
    Thanks DD.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  8. #1838
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Isn't the idea of resetting the tax in 2020 and then going for broke in 2021 a little like fasting and then splurging?

    I say that because you're basically getting yourself right back into trouble, assuming you're signing a few free agents to contracts more than a couple of years.
    Depends. If we sign just the highest priced FAs, we will likely get right back to where we are now, soon afterwards.

    Maybe we try and sign mid level FAs to shorter term deals.

    I'm also hoping 2 years in a row with draft picks in the top 20-24 might help rebuild the farm for after 2023 or so.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #1839
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Here's a look at Sale's losing starts:
    IP Runs Result
    3.0 7 lost 12-4 (Not pen's fault)
    6.0 1 lost 1-0 (Not pen's fault)
    4.0 5 lost 7-5 (Not pen's fault)
    5.0 4 lost 8-0 NPF
    5.0 2 Lost 7-4 Yes, Pen's fault
    7.0 4 lost 5-2 NPF
    7.0 2 lost 5-4 YES, pen's fault
    6.0 3 lost 4-3 NPF
    6.0 4 lost 4-1 NPF
    7.0 1 lost 4-3 YES Pen's fault
    6.0 5 lost 8-7 NPF
    5.2 5 lost 6-3 NPF
    4.2 5 lost 11-2 NPF
    5.1 6 lost 9-6 NPF
    3.2 8 lost 9-2 NPF

    (Note: To be fair, some NPF might have seen a blown save.)

    Only 3 of the losses in Sale's starts were the pen's fault.

    Look at some wins:
    5.1 3 won 4-3 (Pen did better)
    6.0 2 won 7-2 PDB
    5.0 4 won 7-5 PDB
    6.2 5 won 7-6 PDB

    That's four of the 10 wins where the pen did better and only 3 of the 15 losses where the pen did worse.

    Now, let's look at Price (Sox are 9-12 in his starts):

    Losses
    IP Runs Result
    6.0 4 lost 7-0 Not Pens Fault
    6.0 4 lost 5-4 NPF
    6.0 2 lost 6-4 Yes, Pen's Fault
    6.0 3 lost 6-4 Yes, more Pen's Fault
    0.2 0 lost 4-3 Hard to blame pen with 4 runs allowed in 8.1 IP
    6.0 9 lost 7-5 Totally Pen's fault
    5.0 1 lost 4-3 Yes, more Pen's Fault (or Bats)
    5.0 4 lost 7-4 NPF
    4.0 6 lost 11-2 NPF
    6.0 3 lost 3-2 NPF (Bats)
    4.1 4 lost 6-5 NPF
    2.2 7 lost 7-4 NPF

    Only 4 of his 12 losses can be blamed on the pen.

    Now, some of the wins:
    5.0 2 won 4-3 Pen Did Better
    5.0 2 won 12-2 PDB
    6.0 1 won 5-1 PDB (or as good)
    1.1 6 won 7-6 PDB (saved his ass better)
    6.0 3 won 6-3 PDB

    That's 5 of the 9 wins where the pen did better, but Price pitched well in 3 of them.

    Let's say 4 losses on the pen and 2 wins on the pen. That's a net gain to Price of 2 wins.

    We maybe should have been 11-10 in Price's starts with a decent pen.
    Sox 4 Ever

  10. #1840
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.

    In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games
    And these metrics look even better if you look at them from May 1st to the present.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  11. #1841
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    And these metrics look even better if you look at them from May 1st to the present.
    Lol

  12. #1842
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Lol
    Glad you took it in the spirit in which it was intended.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    "Relief pitchers are a crapshoot." No, the truth is "Crapshoot pitchers are relievers."

  13. #1843
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    I finally understood one of your posts.

    Your turn!

    😳

  14. #1844
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.

  15. #1845
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Forgive my bluntness recently. Some of you may know my 19 year old dog died recently and my brother in law died unexpectedly 2 days ago, and we are going through a tough time with his family, right now.
    Sorry to hear that . Best wishes to you .

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