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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

  1. #766
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    He'll be back and forth for some time but I stick by my prediction.
    If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.
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  2. #767
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.
    I leave open the possibility that he is mopping up in the pen of a sub .500 team in 2021, but he will not be at the back end of anyone's pen.
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    It's the bullpen, stupid.

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    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  3. #768
    Legend TylerD's Avatar
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    What the fuck Taylor. You’re a pitcher. How do you mess that up.

  4. #769
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.
    There are 30 teams in MLB. When a poster says that he's the 16th best based on WAR... that's middle of the road. Spin at its worst.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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  5. #770
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    There are 30 teams in MLB. When a poster says that he's the 16th best based on WAR... that's middle of the road. Spin at its worst.
    It's not spin.

    Just stop listening to someone posting half season UZR/150 numbers when even 1 full season is too small a sample size to you judge by rank.

    That's one side of the argument.

    The other is that JBJ may actually be playing the 16th best CF'er. (Was that the WAR or dWAR ranking?)
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  6. #771
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    I leave open the possibility that he is mopping up in the pen of a sub .500 team in 2021, but he will not be at the back end of anyone's pen.
    I agree; I'd lay 5:1 odds he's nobody's 3-4 starter by then.
    Last edited by moonslav59; 07-16-2019 at 10:54 PM.
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  7. #772
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    Quote Originally Posted by TylerD View Post
    What the fuck Taylor. You’re a pitcher. How do you mess that up.
    Trade him!!

  8. #773
    For the first time in recent memory FanGraphs has dropped the Red Sox postseason chances below 50 percent (at 48.9):

    https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

    ... while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox postseason chances at 33 percent:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...b-predictions/

  9. #774
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    It looks more and more like a fire sale summer, but we are not there, yet.

    We need to start planning for it, now, though. We should not make trades to try and win in 2020, but instead 2021 and beyond. Use 2020 to reset the tax with the idea that we may go heavy in the FA market in 2021.

    Anybody not under team control in 2021 or beyond, trade for the most we can get- preferably prospects that should be ready by 2021 or 2022, but really good ones farther away would be okay.

    Players under team control in 2021 and beyond, look at their ages and chances of being a key to helping us contend, consider keeping or trading.

    Sell for best return (pay 99% of salary, if needed):
    Porcello
    Moreland
    Holt
    Cashner
    (Pearce if worth anything)

    FAs after 2020 (may have higher value)
    Betts
    JBJ
    Workman (maybe extend?)
    Wright & Leon (if worth anything)

    Special cases:
    JD Martinez (back issues and age do not help his case as a key piece for 2021 and beyond)
    Price (Tough call. His age says no to 2021>>)
    Sale (Probably not worth trading while his stock is low. He may rebound and be a help in 2012>> or he could rebound, and we trade him while his stock is higher than now.)
    Eovaldi (Trading low is not a good idea.)

    After 2021 FAs
    Pedey (contract gone)
    ERod (keep)
    Barnes (keep)
    Hembree (Probably worth keeping, for now)

    It's easier to just list the keepers:
    Bogey
    Devers
    Vaz
    ERod
    Barnes
    Maybe extend Workman
    Wait it out with Sale, Eovaldi & Hembree

    Sox 4 Ever

  10. #775
    Porcello is absolutely worthless right now. Something is wrong with him. I know he figured out a way to gut through 6 after giving up 4, but his stuff has declined yet his location is terrible. His breaking ball is almost unusable. It’s a cement mixer right now as he is still rolling it instead of throwing it. It lacks the downward movement a good curve has. Instead, it’s a slow lateral breaking slurve and those get hammered unless you throw them at the fringes of the zone. Rick is throwing them like there is still a bottom to them and they’re staying belt high leading to great swings from the opponents. Nobody is paying for a rental who has gotten worse going into the summer. The idea that you’re getting anything for Porcello is pure fallacy. Someone will sign him on a pillow deal in the offseason and try to get his breaking ball to work again.

    Moreland isn’t bringing you back anything. The guy was a one trick pony before getting hurt. He comes back, lasts a game and has been out for another six weeks.

    Holt could be a useful piece for a title contender. He might be your best trade chip as a “rental” assuming you don’t consider JDM a rental.

    JD is the toughest case going. Will he opt out or in? If he’s in for next year, you roll with him. If he’s giving you an inkling that he’s gone, sell him now. He’d be worth a couple good prospects, although his skill set is hardly unique in today’s game. DH with power. They fetch something, but not what they used to

    There is a reason why Cashner went to Boston for two DSL guys and Bmore even sent some cash. He’s been lucky this year and teams can see through the stats. He’s a 6 inning 4.5 ERA guy. Fine as your 5. He will be worth something, just not a lot

  11. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    This is the problem with the stat-driven "trained observers". If a ball is hit 50' to JBJ's left, he runs to the spot and waits for the ball, and another OF'er has a ball hit 50' to his left and he catches it on the run they both get credit for being able to catch up with a ball hit 50' to their left.
    Statistically these two players are equal.

    The problem isn't in the formula. It's in the stat driven "trained observers" who are more interested in accurately reporting the fact that the ball was caught than in the fact that JBJ is obviously the better player because he was waiting for the ball.
    One commentator pointed out that this observation is deceptive. "Running to the spot and waiting" makes tracking the ball difficult; loping to the spot and tracking it at an angle is easier. Anyone who has played the outfield knows that the nightmarish hit is the one hit right at you, esp. in center field where there is generally no hook or slice. (i.e., using one's blazing speed to get to the ball and waiting for it may be counterproductive? )

  12. #777
    Weak starting pitching, lack of depth in the BP, inconsistent hitting with RISP of late. Thes make for a team going no where. Even Cora's moves are questionable. Travis for Holt with a runner in scoring position and us in great need of a run. Taking out a hot hitter (336 and pinch hitting with a 194 hitter, just because of the lefty/righty idea?

  13. #778
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer.
    It's not exactly a super-bold prediction, considering the dude is almost 32 and had barely pitched in MLB until last year.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

  14. #779
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    I just can't believe how bad our pitching is. That's about all I can say.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

  15. #780
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    Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in winning percentage when scoring 5 runs or fewer.
    25 Miami .236
    26 Red Sox .217
    27th Toronto .210
    28th Baltimore .188
    29th Royals .164
    30th Seattle .153
    This from BostonSportsInf
    This team just cant get out of its own way.
    Last edited by OH FOY!; 07-17-2019 at 08:35 AM.

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