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Thread: A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

  1. #841
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Sox OPS last 28 days (not counting today):

    1.213 Devers
    1.143 Bogaerts
    1.008 Vazquez
    .985 Hernandez
    .967 Holt
    .922 Betts
    .812 JBJ
    .807 Chavis
    .793 Martinez
    .741 Benintendi
    .368 Leon

    ERA (listed in order of most IP)
    3.30 ERod
    2.45 Price
    7.59 Sale
    10.50 Porcello
    2.19 Taylor
    6.52 Brasier
    1.93 Workman
    4.82 Brewer
    9.39 Barnes
    6.14 Velazquez
    12.15 Walden
    8.53 Wright
    9.00 Cashner
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  2. #842
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Last 50 Games:

    1.081 Bogey
    1.050 Devers
    .973 Pearce (27 PAs)
    .943 Holt
    .916 JBJ
    .880 Marco (55 PAs)
    .851 JD
    .838 Betts
    .817 Vaz
    .752 Beni
    .746 Moreland (24)
    .724 Chavis
    .486 Leon
    .320 Travis (25)

    9 guys over .817!

    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  3. #843
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post


    I've heard word that breaking balls are not breaking as much due to the new balls. That hurts guys trying to reinvent themselves as more than just a "thrower" (not that Sale was ever just a thrower).

    This has sort of been my thinking ever since I heard about the "new" baseball but to me it pertained more to pitchers who aren't trying to reinvent themselves but instead were pitchers who never were "throwers" but relied on their stuff... like Rick Porcillo. (I think I got the right "P" this time. LOL)
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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  4. #844
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    When I say "reinvent himself," I'm not saying Sale needs some radical make-over. He still throws pretty hard and has multiple pitches. He just can no longer rely on rearing back and throwing it 98-100 mph when needed.

    His control went on the blink a couple times this year, but he has also had some stretches where his K:BB rate was off the charts.

    There is still reason for concern, but I'm confident Sale will be great for us going forward.

    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  5. #845
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    So, when Eovaldi returns, will this be the 25 man roster, until Moreland and/or Johnson is ready? (Pearce, reportedly, isn't even close.)

    5 SP: Price, Sale, ERod, Porcello, Cashner
    8 RP: Eovaldi, Workman, Taylor, Barnes, Brewer, Hembree, Walden , (Weber or DHern)
    2 C: Vaz, Leon
    2 1B: Chavez, Travis
    2 2B: Holt, Hernandez
    1 3B: Devers
    1 SS: Bogaerts
    1 LF: Beni
    1 CF: JBJ
    1 RF: Betts
    1 DH: JD

    Moreland> Travis
    Johnson> DHern or Weber
    Wright> Trade or Walden or Hembree back to IL (velo down)

    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  6. #846
    All-Star devildavid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Actually what his WAR is saying this year is that since not as many balls are hit to CF against Boston, and because Betts is taking command of many plays, Bradley might be defensive overkill for this year’s Sox team.

    If the Sox had Kiermeier in CF, his defensive rating would suffer, too, due to the limited opportunities...
    But that isn't what his WAR is saying. A single number is not doing what you are doing. It is not analysing the reason for the number. So in that way, WAR fails.

  7. #847
    All-Star devildavid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Possibly, but the season isn't over yet. There's still plenty of baseball to be played. I believe the Sox are going to go on that great run that we've all been waiting for. I may be disappointed, but it wouldn't be the first time.
    I like to take a realistic approach. I go by the performance of the present team in the present season. This team, from game one, gave me no reason for optimism. They don't have the fire that I see in the Yankees, or the scrappiness of the Rays. The Rays do more with less. And their other two main WC opponents, the Indians and A's do the same. The Sox will have to clean up on the doormat teams, because the Yanks and Rays are not going down easy. I hate to say it, but the Yankee "savages" seem like the team on a mission this season.

  8. #848
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildavid View Post
    But that isn't what his WAR is saying. A single number is not doing what you are doing. It is not analysing the reason for the number. So in that way, WAR fails.
    Yes, it is not perfect, but it is the best, single comparative value number we got.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  9. #849
    All-Star devildavid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, it is not perfect, but it is the best, single comparative value number we got.
    But the problem remains, as it does, with the use of any single number to evaluate the real value or ability of a player. Also, it is not important to compare players in assessing their value to your team.

  10. #850
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Many pitcher lose Velocity and never are the same, but when looking at the best pitchers of the last 15 years, almost all of them, except Felix Hernandez, went through a rough patch or two near age 30 and were able to come back with some decent to excellent seasons afterwards.

    I've heard word that breaking balls are not breaking as much due to the new balls. That hurts guys trying to reinvent themselves as more than just a "thrower" (not that Sale was ever just a thrower).


    Sale is a fierce sompetitor, and I'm betting on him finding a way to get back to a top 10 SP'er. To me, it's more about when not if, and today was a great sign thast the time may be very near.
    Might be worth looking at the balls that Ryu has thrown in his early career before he came here. He thrives with this baseball and it makes me wonder if the balls used in Korea bear some resemblance to these baseballs. Also makes me wonder if the number of pitchers now throwing a knuckle curve instead of using the traditional curve grip is a consequence of this new ball. There is no slider version of the knuckle curve which also makes me wonder if that is at he heart of seeing so many suck ass Sliders just rolling up to the plate waiting to be lambasted.

    It might be harder to throw breaking balls with this baseball and it might even be more difficult to exhibit command with this baseball. However, I still applaud the efforts of pitchers to try. In the first place, there are not enough of them around that EVER had gas. Many of the guys that threw real gas didn't have the physical characteristics nor the technique to throw that hard for very long and wore out leaving us with the general level of sludge pitching in MLB unis today.

    If they were willing to throw hard when they really couldn't for Manfred and for their agents, they should be willing to try to exhibit command for us. Everything that happens on the diamond starts with the ball in the hands of the pitcher. Without them (unless Manfred reverses direction) we are doomed to a remaining life of watching hitters hack away at 96 above their heads and balls in the dirt, behind their ears, WHEREVER. Most of the pitchers can't throw worth crap and most of the hitters have no clue what they are swinging at when and that is not interesting baseball to me.

    Even with these baseballs and even with the explosion in HR's that "explosion" amounts to 2.8 HR's per game on average in total. Wow....I am SOOOOOOO excited. Lets watch 3 hours of guys trudging back to the dugout for 2.8 HR's, approximately 10 seconds of excitement per game. Whoopdie-ding-dong. Be still my heart!
    Last edited by jung; 07-19-2019 at 07:06 AM.

  11. #851
    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, it is not perfect, but it is the best, single comparative value number we got.
    IMHO the "problem" with WAR is in the serious fans. We were all clamoring for something that would compare the value of players so when WAR was introduced (by more than one group, who report different WAR values) we were going to be all over it regardless of its accuracy.

    Saying it's the best single comparative number we've got may not be a resounding endorsement. Remember, the Yugo was the best car imported from Yugoslavia too.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

  12. #852
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    IMHO the "problem" with WAR is in the serious fans. We were all clamoring for something that would compare the value of players so when WAR was introduced (by more than one group, who report different WAR values) we were going to be all over it regardless of its accuracy.

    Saying it's the best single comparative number we've got may not be a resounding endorsement. Remember, the Yugo was the best car imported from Yugoslavia too.
    The way I look at WAR, it's an excellent *starting point* when analyzing a player's performance.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #853
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildavid View Post
    But the problem remains, as it does, with the use of any single number to evaluate the real value or ability of a player. Also, it is not important to compare players in assessing their value to your team.
    Yes, not necessary, but I like the attempt, and they make noble efforts. It tries to shorten the water cooler conversations into one number instead of 3, 4 or 10.

  14. #854
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    Quote Originally Posted by devildavid View Post
    But that isn't what his WAR is saying. A single number is not doing what you are doing. It is not analysing the reason for the number. So in that way, WAR fails.
    It is saying it if you know how to look at the numbers. It certainly says it to me.

    If a player doesn’t get as many opportunities, his stats should suffer.

    Mark Canha, for example, is a home run hitting machine. But he is never among the league leaders. While he is awesome at hitting home runs per at bat, he doesn’t get as many at bats. Therefore his home runs suffer.

    But if you look at the single number to evaluate home runs, plenty of hitters hit more. Not because they’re better in many cases, but because they get more chances.

    WAR, like all stats, measures accomplishments. Not ability. Fans like to use the two notions interchangeably, but that doesn’t make it right...

  15. #855
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    What sometimes gets overlooked is that WAR is a 'counting stat', not a 'rate stat'. Quantity is a big part of it.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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