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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #2476
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    You have to be careful though. Sometimes you get burned by unrealistic hopes.

    I suspect that Craig Kimbrel hurt himself quite a bit by asking for the moon last year.
    I think we were talking about what return in trade we might get for Betts, not him shooting for the moon on a contract.
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  2. #2477
    Deity Slasher9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I'm expecting Mookie to be a Padre, as San Diego 1) has 40 man roster issues and 2) has already issued a statement that they will be packaging prospects in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

    Per Matt Cerrone, the Red Sox asking price for Betts is two good prospects, an outfielder to replace Betts, and a mid-rotation SP.

    If the Sox deal with the Padres, they might be able to get RHSP Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation SP), OF Franchy Cordero (the outfielder to replace Betts), 2B Xavier Edwards and LHP David Weathers (the two good prospects).

    San Diego would get an MVP-caliber outfielder and free up some 40-man roster space to protect other prospects from the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox get their potentially unrealistic trade demands. And Betts gets to live for a year in San Diego, which is something everyone should want.

    Win-win-win...
    this is slasher approved
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  3. #2478
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I'm expecting Mookie to be a Padre, as San Diego 1) has 40 man roster issues and 2) has already issued a statement that they will be packaging prospects in order to upgrade the MLB roster.

    Per Matt Cerrone, the Red Sox asking price for Betts is two good prospects, an outfielder to replace Betts, and a mid-rotation SP.

    If the Sox deal with the Padres, they might be able to get RHSP Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation SP), OF Franchy Cordero (the outfielder to replace Betts), 2B Xavier Edwards and LHP David Weathers (the two good prospects).

    San Diego would get an MVP-caliber outfielder and free up some 40-man roster space to protect other prospects from the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox get their potentially unrealistic trade demands. And Betts gets to live for a year in San Diego, which is something everyone should want.

    Win-win-win...
    You think we could get Margot and 2 prospects (no Quantrill) for Betts?
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  4. #2479
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I think we were talking about what return in trade we might get for Betts, not him shooting for the moon on a contract.
    Same principle. If the other side thinks you're being ridiculous they may turn their attention elsewhere.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  5. #2480
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    You think we could get Margot and 2 prospects (no Quantrill) for Betts?
    Only AJ Preller knows for sure.

    I'm not even sure the Sox could actually get the package I proposed. All I can tell you is it does work out using the valuation system on baseballtradevalues.com. But any team can label any player immovable or have a much higher value on any prospect for whatever reason. And it fits the package that Matt Cerrone (who is not affiliated with the Red Sox in any way) says they want.

    Now, accroding to baseballtradevalues, Margot has slightly less surplus value than Franchy Cordero, so he could be an acceptable substitution. Or if the Sox could eliminate Quantrill, they could get better prospects, like 1B Josh Naylor and one of LHP Adrian Morejon or C Luis Campusano.

    I actually prefer Cordero to Margot. But I can see the merit to either choice...
    Last edited by notin; 11-14-2019 at 10:59 AM.

  6. #2481
    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    According to one website, the Red Sox package of Mookie Betts ($50 million) and Jay Groome ($4.3 million) would have a surplus value of $54.3 million:

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

    The proposed Yankee package of Miguel Andujar ($27.2 million), Clint Frazier ($19 million), Luis Gil ($8.7 million) and Mike King ($2.4 million) would have a surplus value of $57.3 million.

    The Red Sox would spread their risk over four players with a combined 20 years of team control while the Yankees would spread their risk over two players with a combined seven years of team control.
    They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.
    The Yankees could go 0-162 and it wouldn't be enough

  7. #2482
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    Quote Originally Posted by illinoisredsox View Post
    They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.
    Drinking water spiked with Stanislozol?

  8. #2483
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by illinoisredsox View Post
    They would have that Yankee stench though. And for whatever reason (I think it's the clubhouse drinking water), very few players seem to do well once they leave the Bronx.
    Unless they're pitchers.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  9. #2484
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Unless they're pitchers.
    ... named "Sonny"?

  10. #2485
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    ... named "Sonny"?
    He's Exhibit A at the moment. I can think of some others that did better when they left NY. A. J. Burnett, Melancon etc.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  11. #2486
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    He's Exhibit A at the moment. I can think of some others that did better when they left NY. A. J. Burnett, Melancon etc.
    Well. some hitters did, too. Steve Balboni leaps to mind. No idea why. No one should ever unwillingly think of Steve Balboni...

  12. #2487
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well. some hitters did, too. Steve Balboni leaps to mind. No idea why. No one should ever unwillingly think of Steve Balboni...
    Or Jay Buhner:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUwSxqnRW-8

  13. #2488
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Should we sign Betts to over $300M/10 years?

    Here are the highest contracts of all time (some were not FA signings):

    7+ Years
    $35.5 x 12 Trout (to 2030- renogotiated)
    $32.5 x 8 Arenado (to 2026)
    $31.0 x 8 Miggy (to 2023)
    $31.0 x 7 Price (to 2022)
    $30.7 x 7 Kershaw (to 2020)
    $30.0 x 7 Scherzer ('21)

    $30.0 x 10 Machado ('28)
    $27.5 x 10 ARod '17 (renegotiated)
    $25.7 x 7 Verlander '19
    $25.4 x 13 Harper'31
    $25.2M x 10 ARod '10


    $25.0 x 13 Stanton '27
    $25.0 x 7 Strasburg '23
    $24.0 x 10 Pujols '21
    $24.0 x 10 R Cano '23
    $23.8 x 9 Fielder '20
    $23.4 x 7 Altuve '24
    $23.0 x 7 Sabathia '15
    $23.0 x 8 Mauer '18
    $23.0 x 7 Chris Davis '22

    $22.5 x 8 Teixeira '16
    $22.5 x 10 Votto '23
    $22.1 x 7 Tanaka '20
    $22.0 x 7 A Gon '18
    $21.9 x 7 Ellsbury '20
    $20.3 x 7 C Crawford '17

    $20.0 x 8 M Ramirez '08
    $20.0 x 8 M Kemp '19

    I edited out the shorter term contracts- just 7+ year contracts listed.

    Red= Bad
    Blue= Pending or good
    Black= so-so
    Last edited by moonslav59; 11-14-2019 at 03:15 PM.
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  14. #2489
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I edited out the shorter term contracts- just 7+ year contracts listed.

    Red= Bad
    Blue= Pending or good
    Black= so-so
    Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $85 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

    One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.
    Last edited by harmony; 11-14-2019 at 04:53 PM.

  15. #2490
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $93 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

    One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.
    Yes, I meant to put price in red. (Fixed it.)

    One could argue Price is "pending."
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