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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #3211
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I think this team is in a bad position going forward, but as this is MLB with insane levels of parity not seen I other sports, that can change quickly.

    But really, for 2020, this team won 84 games last year with one good starter and a ramshackle bullpen. A lot of teams with no significant injuries won less.

    I think they have a base, assuming a few key people stay healthy. And can be competitive in this year with the right moves. Iíd prefer not dealing Betts, but I donít think itís a necessarily a white flag, either...
    If we trade Betts for vets or ML ready prospects, then it not a 2020 "white flag."

    While we had injuries last year, the Yanks had way more, so expecting us to pass them, next year, especially after they sign Cole or Stasburg is really a stretch. It's not impossible, but I'm leaning towards maximizing our turn-around by beginning sooner rather than later. Reset in 2020 and go all out for 2021 or 2022 more likely.

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  2. #3212
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    If we trade Betts for vets or ML ready prospects, then it not a 2020 "white flag."

    While we had injuries last year, the Yanks had way more, so expecting us to pass them, next year, especially after they sign Cole or Stasburg is really a stretch. It's not impossible, but I'm leaning towards maximizing our turn-around by beginning sooner rather than later. Reset in 2020 and go all out for 2021 or 2022 more likely.


    Timing is everything. You've got a ton of money tied up for the next 3 seasons with only two players who may outperform the contract (JDM and XB). The Yanks are coming into their window and with a ton of money coming off the books after 2020, they can sustain the window a bit longer. If I were Bloom, I would be looking to try and beat the Yanks with a younger core once the Yanks core starts getting huge money (2023) and have to make some pretty rough decisions. The Yanks handled a ridiculous amount of injuries and still overwhelmed the sox by 19 games. If the Yanks were trying in September, it could have been 22+. Now the Yanks are healthy and poised to add a legit ace in front of a pretty talented rotation. They return their dominant pen. They return a healthier offense. The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us, and being a cheerleader isn't a good business strategy.
    The rebuild is complete.

  3. #3213
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Timing is everything. You've got a ton of money tied up for the next 3 seasons with only two players who may outperform the contract (JDM and XB). The Yanks are coming into their window and with a ton of money coming off the books after 2020, they can sustain the window a bit longer. If I were Bloom, I would be looking to try and beat the Yanks with a younger core once the Yanks core starts getting huge money (2023) and have to make some pretty rough decisions. The Yanks handled a ridiculous amount of injuries and still overwhelmed the sox by 19 games. If the Yanks were trying in September, it could have been 22+. Now the Yanks are healthy and poised to add a legit ace in front of a pretty talented rotation. They return their dominant pen. They return a healthier offense. The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us, and being a cheerleader isn't a good business strategy.
    Just 2 guys- Price and Eovaldi are a "ton" while two guys, JD and Bogey, are "only two guys."

    Price and Eovaldi may give us half to 3/4 of their contract cost. It's even possible they earn their full cost- not likely but possible.

    We also have Devers, Beni, Vaz, ERod and others earning way more than their costs.

    We have a nice core.
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  4. #3214
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    I love our offense.
    It loves you, too. Except Chavis, whose been talkiní a lotta smack behind your back...

  5. #3215

  6. #3216
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Just 2 guys- Price and Eovaldi are a "ton" while two guys, JD and Bogey, are "only two guys."

    Price and Eovaldi may give us half to 3/4 of their contract cost. It's even possible they earn their full cost- not likely but possible.

    We also have Devers, Beni, Vaz, ERod and others earning way more than their costs.

    We have a nice core.
    On talent alone, your core is fine. The problem is, you have no money to spend. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are making $77 mil between them. Sale is an injury and effectiveness question, Price even more so, Eovaldi more so than him. You have a team right now that is already over the LT, which is a stated goal to get below. We are all expecting JBJ to get dealt. Right now the sox have holes at 2b, 1b, SP, and Closer/Relief ace. If JBJ goes to get under the lux tax, CF will be a need. Subtracting Betts doesn't help this equation either. Your farm has some guys who can help out in the 1b and 2b situation, but none are gonna shock the world, or at least none are expected to. Your staff the way it is really needs more like 6 or 7 starters and beyond your top 4, all other internal options suck ass. To prop this core up will take cash or prospects. The farm is dead right now. The FO has pulled the cash.
    The rebuild is complete.

  7. #3217
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    On talent alone, your core is fine. The problem is, you have no money to spend. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are making $77 mil between them. Sale is an injury and effectiveness question, Price even more so, Eovaldi more so than him. You have a team right now that is already over the LT, which is a stated goal to get below. We are all expecting JBJ to get dealt. Right now the sox have holes at 2b, 1b, SP, and Closer/Relief ace. If JBJ goes to get under the lux tax, CF will be a need. Subtracting Betts doesn't help this equation either. Your farm has some guys who can help out in the 1b and 2b situation, but none are gonna shock the world, or at least none are expected to. Your staff the way it is really needs more like 6 or 7 starters and beyond your top 4, all other internal options suck ass. To prop this core up will take cash or prospects. The farm is dead right now. The FO has pulled the cash.
    I get the problem, but I find it interesting how you stated the financial issue. To me Sale is a push. We have 2 bad super big contracts (both could turn plus or close to even) and 2 good ones. It's not the end of the world.

    We can win in 2020 without JBJ, and that is all we have to trade to reset.

    We could trade some salary, like Price, and not get worse. We could use those saving to fill some key gaps with low cost deals.

    It's not easy, and I know our odds don't look good for 2020, but there's still a sliver of hope.
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  8. #3218
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post


    It's not easy, and I know our odds don't look good for 2020, but there's still a sliver of hope.
    Here's what I think has to go our way:

    1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter.
    2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out).
    3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA
    4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise.
    5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference.
    6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors.
    7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement.

  9. #3219
    "The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us"

    I think you may have reversed some of the teams in this sentence. The Yanks had unprecedented good luck last year finding has-beens (Maybin, 32) and never-weres (Tauchman 28, Urshela 27, Ford 26, German 26) to replace and virtually outperform injured regulars. After watching the '18 postseason, some might say Boston had ridiculous bad luck with injuries and down-years from 80% of its championship rotation.

    You might counter argue that NY made its own luck because Cashman is a better GM than Dombrowski... but nobody was saying that a year ago. Instead, Red Sox detractors relied on the ole "Everything went right in '18" warning (which looked prophetic when key acquisitions and postseason heroes Pearce and Eovaldi both broke down early in '19).

    As great as the Yankees' season was in '19, they are a team in flux and under pressure to win. There are issues on defense, and the rotation is a year older. The Yanks can sign Cole and Rendon, and Stanton can hit 50 HRs, but it's far from automatic they'll win 103 games again. The only time NY ever won more in the past half century was in the all-time '98 season.

  10. #3220
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    1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter.
    Check
    2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out).
    Check
    3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA
    80 starts, yes, they need to reach this but likely will not. They'd need better than 4.00 to get us another ring.
    4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise.
    If 3 happens at 3.50 ERA, we can do without a good 5th starter.
    5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference.
    We need repeats from Workman, Taylor & Walden, a return to form from Barnes, and only then we might need only 1 more decent arm. More likely, we need 2-3 more arms or DHern to shine.
    6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors.
    Very doubtful we get this without going way over the luxury tax line.
    7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement.
    He actually heats up on May 21st or 22nd- every year since 2016.
    2017: .637 on May 20th, then went 2-5 and was at .650 by May 26th and .700 by May 28th. He was over .750 by June 1st and .800 by June 12th.
    2018: .519 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .600 on May 31st, .650 by the end of July and .700 by the end of August.
    2019: .443 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .500 in 2 days, .550 by May 28th, .600 the next day, .650 by June 13th and .700 by June 23rd.

    Waiting until July would miss his hottest streaks.
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #3221
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    "The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us"

    I think you may have reversed some of the teams in this sentence. The Yanks had unprecedented good luck last year finding has-beens (Maybin, 32) and never-weres (Tauchman 28, Urshela 27, Ford 26, German 26) to replace and virtually outperform injured regulars. After watching the '18 postseason, some might say Boston had ridiculous bad luck with injuries and down-years from 80% of its championship rotation.

    You might counter argue that NY made its own luck because Cashman is a better GM than Dombrowski... but nobody was saying that a year ago. Instead, Red Sox detractors relied on the ole "Everything went right in '18" warning (which looked prophetic when key acquisitions and postseason heroes Pearce and Eovaldi both broke down early in '19).

    As great as the Yankees' season was in '19, they are a team in flux and under pressure to win. There are issues on defense, and the rotation is a year older. The Yanks can sign Cole and Rendon, and Stanton can hit 50 HRs, but it's far from automatic they'll win 103 games again. The only time NY ever won more in the past half century was in the all-time '98 season.
    The Yanks have all those guys returning plus the replacements that did very well, last year. It's hard to spin that to a negative, but I commend your attempt.

    They will be massive favorites after they sign Cole or Stasburg.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #3222
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He actually heats up on May 21st or 22nd- every year since 2016.
    2017: .637 on May 20th, then went 2-5 and was at .650 by May 26th and .700 by May 28th. He was over .750 by June 1st and .800 by June 12th.
    2018: .519 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .600 on May 31st, .650 by the end of July and .700 by the end of August.
    2019: .443 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .500 in 2 days, .550 by May 28th, .600 the next day, .650 by June 13th and .700 by June 23rd.

    Waiting until July would miss his hottest streaks.
    I stand corrected. In that case he takes his first at bat on May 19th.

  13. #3223
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    I stand corrected. In that case he takes his first at bat on May 19th.
    One wonders if JBJ could play just 1 game, then get red hot.
    Sox 4 Ever

  14. #3224
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The Yanks have all those guys returning plus the replacements that did very well, last year. It's hard to spin that to a negative, but I commend your attempt.

    They will be massive favorites after they sign Cole or Stasburg.
    I expect NY to be massive favorites, but I'm far from ready to concede the campaign based on one Red Sox season that lacked luster. Even after making some expected personnel changes, Boston will still bring back the majority of a roster that recently won and knows how to win the World Series. By my count, the Yankees have two: Gardner and Chapman.

    I expect improved performances from players with youth on their side, like Benintendi, 25, and D. Hernandez, 23. I'm also optimistic about Eovaldi's potential, based on how hard he was throwing at the end of the year. A lot of posters are down on him right now, but I looked back at the thread when Boston signed him last winter and almost everyone here was positive about getting him back. He was the one free agent I really wanted locked up, a guy with Cy Young stuff on display the entire postseason.

    I still hope to see a full year out of Eovaldi in a Sox uni, and hope he's not traded. In today's market for good starting pitchers, he's not overpaid at 17 million, and I'd like to see him get a chance to earn it. Put it this way, I like the chances of Nate bouncing back as much as Severino, who's lost key playoff starts three years in a row and has never made it past four innings in 6 of 8 postseason starts.

  15. #3225
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I expect NY to be massive favorites, but I'm far from ready to concede the campaign based on one Red Sox season that lacked luster. Even after making some expected personnel changes, Boston will still bring back the majority of a roster that recently won and knows how to win the World Series. By my count, the Yankees have two: Gardner and Chapman.

    I expect improved performances from players with youth on their side, like Benintendi, 25, and D. Hernandez, 23. I'm also optimistic about Eovaldi's potential, based on how hard he was throwing at the end of the year. A lot of posters are down on him right now, but I looked back at the thread when Boston signed him last winter and almost everyone here was positive about getting him back. He was the one free agent I really wanted locked up, a guy with Cy Young stuff on display the entire postseason.

    I still hope to see a full year out of Eovaldi in a Sox uni, and hope he's not traded. In today's market for good starting pitchers, he's not overpaid at 17 million, and I'd like to see him get a chance to earn it. Put it this way, I like the chances of Nate bouncing back as much as Severino, who's lost key playoff starts three years in a row and has never made it past four innings in 6 of 8 postseason starts.
    Well, like you said, we only win when we least expect it, so I'm thinking our odds are long.

    (See how I twisted that around on you?!?)

    Seriously, to me, it comes down to the fact that we will have to rebuild at some point. One can argue, we can win in 2021, too, and just keep "going for it," but it will involve more spending.

    I see your point, and I've not placed myself in either camp, yet, but I do think that if we decide to reset and rebuild before and during 2020, we can turn things around faster and create a stronger roster going forward than by putting it off a year and maybe getting nothing for Betts and others.

    It's a tough call. I'm about 50-50 but leaning towards beginning the reset now, because I think the 2020 odds are too long to be worth sacrificing the time and quality or the pending rebuild.
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