A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Names?

I've named quite a few several times but can only remember Billy Hamilton and Ligares. I think Dyson might be available, too. All will cost way less than JBJ's arb.

[S5Dewey]

From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...

Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

[moonslav59]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

[Bellhorn04]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

[moonslav59]

Of course that's all precipitated on the idea that we can resign Mookie, which is far from being a done deal.

So are you talking about releasing only JBJ, or are you also talking about parting with other players too? Which LT limit are you thinking about getting under? Because when I hear "reset" I'm hearing a total reset, to down below the first limit, and IMO that's going to involve losing more than just JBJ.

But again, I wouldn't reset this year. I'd wait another year. By then the outfield picture will be clearer. There is a core group of players who bring excellence to their positions. Devers, Bogaerts, Vazquez & JBJ. Those are the folks I'd build around. And of course Mookie if he gets resigned. If Mookie gets into the fold then and only then would I even consider parting with JBJ. I'd be making one more run at it with those five + a few additions in the off season.

It all depends on the reset or not, but if we reset after 2019, I think we'd only have to lose JBJ and not replace Porcello, Moreland, Pearce or Cashner with any costly FA.

We'd have to go with some sort of mix of Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Marco/Chatham/Lin at 1B-2B (back up DH/SS/3B) and cobble together the rest of the pitching staff for just one year, then, perhaps we spend large on Betts and pitchers or someone else and pitchers' if Betts wants more than we are willing to pay.

I'm not saying our future is rosy, but I'm trying to think of ways to minimize the down years while keeping our essential young and prime core players onboard. The damn budget just does not allow for spending $10+M on a .730 GG CF'er who is starting to decline.

[moonslav59]

Billy Hamilton's bat would make the game threaders pine for JBJ.

No doubt, but there would not be the flashes of brilliance that drive us crazy. My thought is many here would rather have a steady .650 guy than one who hits .500 for 3 months, .650 for 2 months and 1.100 for one. (Not me)

[S5Dewey]

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

[S5Dewey]

And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

[OH FOY!]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-r.../payroll/2020/

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.
Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

[OH FOY!]

Looks like 5 guys take up 115 Million Dollars, not counting Pedroia.

[notin]

Are you really comparing JBJ to Sandy Leon?? Wasn't Leon put on waivers last year and nobody wanted him?? Throw JBJ on the waiver wire and see how many teams want him.

Irrelevant.

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

[OH FOY!]

This is 2021.
Says we have Only 58+milion in Cap Space.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-r.../payroll/2021/

[OH FOY!]

I see no Major Free Agents for 2 years at least, unless Henry wants to keep paying, Luxury Tax. Sox have to get rid of Salary, I would guess. But, Sox will have to Pay some to move them.
Like Price, Sale, Eovaldi.

[OH FOY!]

Sox should go for it next year. Then Betts is gone, JBJ might be gone. Keep both this Off-Season. Let Betts go and get what? Too valuable, JBJ salary not going to break the Bank. When your paying Eovaldi 17 million.

[OH FOY!]

Yanks next Off Season will have only 41.300 in Cap space, but most of the Salaries, are Pre-Arbitration, or Arbitration1. Not expensive.
Then in 2021 it jumps up to 99,800, in Cap space.
Dodgers next year will have over 91+,illion in Cap space.
2021 it goes to 121+ million in Cap Space.
Astros will have 104+million in Cap Space in 2020, and 144+,illion in Cap Space in 2021. Plenty to sign some of there kids.
This why you build a Farm.