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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #4726
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Maybe that’s why no trade seems close.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  2. #4727
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Flap View Post
    Yeah, sorry, but this is absurd, unless Bloom is smoking the shroom:

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...h-red-sox.html

    "The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering,*Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune*reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”* The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved."
    This is absurd.

    Betts for Myers and no good prospects wouldn't be a good deal, even if SD paid all Myers's contract!
    Sox 4 Ever

  3. #4728
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    "The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering,*Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune*reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”* The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved."

    According to the trade simulator, Betts for Myers with SD paying half of his deal would put the values at +50.7 to SD and -25.3 to BOS.

    Differential 76.0.

    If we get no top 5 prospects:
    121.5 Tatis Jr
    82.4 Gore
    51.8 Abrams
    50.2 Patino
    32.1 Trammell

    That leaves this:
    ML Level:
    Paddack 79.1 P
    Lucchesi 38.3 P
    Lamet 25.4 P
    Mejia 22.2 C
    Pham 20.7 OF
    Grisham 18.8 OF
    Naylor 18.5 OF/1B
    Yates 16.0 Closer (last year)
    Munoz 9.8 P
    Cordero 9.6 OF
    Quantrill 8.8 P
    Baez 8.0 P
    Wingenter 7.7 P
    Strahm 7.5 P
    Margot 6.6 OF
    France 5.8 3B

    Prospects:
    Campusano 25.1 C
    Morejon 13.7 P
    Potts 11.9 3B (1B?)
    Arias 11.3 SS (2B?)
    Weathers 11.0 P
    Rosario 10.8 OF
    Miller 8.0 3B
    Marcano 7.2 2B

    To reach 76, I suppose this package meets the value set by this site:
    Campusano 25.1 C
    Morejon 13.7 P
    Potts 11.9 3B (1B?)
    Arias 11.3 SS (2B?)
    Weathers 11.0 P

    Maybe we get a ML'er or two + 3-4 prospects.

    I don't see any combo that works for me.

    (Plus, we pay Myers for 3 years. Betts is done after 2020.)
    Sox 4 Ever

  4. #4729
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    2016 is not relevant in 2020. Heck, 2017 is not very relevant either. Use the facts. He missed a ton of time last year, then had throwing wrist surgery. He is also 34 with lots of miles on his arm and a recent history of lost velocity. What makes anyone think he is gonna make 28 starts in 2020? He'd be lucky to make 20
    Yeah he’s no CC Sabathia

    Or is he?

    Sabathia (ages 31-33): 68 GS 97ERA+
    Price (ages 31-33) 63 GS 118ERA+

    Sabathia (ages 34-38) 118GS 104ERA+

    It wouldn’t be unheard of for Price to recover. And possibly improve...

  5. #4730
    CC made 93 starts from 31-33. It was his age 34 season that he had knee surgery and missed the year. He then made 27 or more starts 4 years in a row after that with two seasons of 30+. Price has had a season of 11 starts and a season of 22 starts over the last 3 seasons. Outside of CC’s knee surgery season, he’s never started less than 22 games. That goes through his age 39 season.

    The other major difference is that CC lost his fastball earlier than Price did and lost it to a more significant degree. CC completely reinvented himself, something Price has been slow to do

  6. #4731
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    The article suggested Myers, Grisham, Croneworth, Campusano and one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez, and a competitive balance draft pick
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  7. #4732
    I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

    Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

    That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

    A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

    A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

    A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

    A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

    That’s a deal to at least consider

  8. #4733
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

    Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

    That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

    A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

    A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

    A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

    A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

    That’s a deal to at least consider
    Catching prospects are the hardest to project.

    I'd insist they take Price or Eovaldi with Betts and lower the return.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #4734
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    The article suggested Myers, Grisham, Croneworth, Campusano and one of either Quantrill, Luchessi or Michael Baez, and a competitive balance draft pick
    It’d be better if the Sox could get Gore or Patino...

  10. #4735
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    I wouldn’t finalize that deal until MLB is done with the punishment. You don’t want MLB to take that pick.

    Also, a deal of Betts for Myers makes little sense outside of balancing salaries for 2020, as Myers is under contract for 21 and 22. If hold out for more. As it stands, the Sox aren’t getting more than 1 top 100 in Campusano. Grisham gives them a cheap MLB talent coming off a reasonable, albeit crushing WC debut. He’s got talent. Croneworth is really interesting as a speed/average hitter then as a high powered reliever. You also have to remember that Croneworth was with TB and went with Pham to SD. Bloom may know something we don’t. Lucchesi would give the Sox reliability. Wha trill is a bit more upside but higher risk.

    That deal would give the Sox a MLb caliber 1b coming off two down years in Myers

    A starting OFer in Grisham with upside

    A top 100 catching prospect in Campusano

    A MLB ready utility guy who doubles as a reliever in Croneworth

    A big league starter either with back end reliability or back end production with blue chip potential.

    That’s a deal to at least consider
    I don’t think MLB is going to go confiscating acquired assets. You better hope not. The Yankees, like Boston, have already been punished once, and employed one of the named conspirators...

  11. #4736
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    It’d be better if the Sox could get Gore or Patino...
    I'd even add Duran and/or Workman to upgrade to Gore or Patino, but since Myers is paid for 3 years, they should take Eovaldi or Price..
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  12. #4737
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'd even add Duran and/or Workman to upgrade to Gore or Patino, but since Myers is paid for 3 years, they should take Eovaldi or Price..
    The simulator likes a trade of Betts and Price for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth, Quantrill and Franchy Cordero.


    It also like Betts and Eovaldi for Myers, Campusano, Cronenworth, Grisham, Quantrill, and Naylor (or $18mill)...

  13. #4738
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    I woke up this AM and am happy that Mookie is still on the Red Sox. I think I'd do the trade if the Padres ate a majority of Myers' salary. Doesn't seem like the Padres want to do that.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  14. #4739
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I woke up this AM and am happy that Mookie is still on the Red Sox. I think I'd do the trade if the Padres ate a majority of Myers' salary. Doesn't seem like the Padres want to do that.
    Or took Price or Eovaldi?

  15. #4740
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    Non roster invitees to ST:

    Durran
    Mata
    Houk

    Baldwin
    Castillo
    Marco
    Joseph
    Ockimey chance at 1b platoon?
    Hildenberger
    Brian Johnson
    Poyner
    McGrath
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

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