A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

The season is not even over, but for some, like myself, looking forward to next year (and beyond) offers more to think and talk about than the remainder of the 2019 season. There is a lot of unknowns about next year.

Who will be the GM?
Will we reset the luxury tax and begin some sort of rebuild?
Will we re-sign any of our free agents to be or try to extend Betts?
Will JBJ, Leon and others still under team control be back?
How good can we be under each spending plan we choose?
If we choose to rebuild, how long might it take to become a top contender again and will anyone on the team now be here to see it?

Here's a look at the specifics of our current roster and how it relates to next season:

Free Agents:
Brock Holt (perhaps the only one who may be back)
Rick Porcello (the innings eater departs)
Mitch Moreland (the oft-injured one departs)
Steve Pearce (We hardly knew ya!)
Andrew Cashner (Just didn't work out here)

Likely Deadwood:
Dustin Pedroia (Chances are just too slight for hopes.)
Rusney Castillo (Not on 40 man- last year of contract)

Possible Trade Fillers, Non Tenders or DFA Candidates:
Jackie Bradley Jr. (Will hate to see him go.)
Steven Wright (How much more can we take?)
Sandy Leon (Is being Sale's caddy enough?)
Ryan Brasier (pre-arb)
Brian Johnson (No options left)
Hector Velazquez (pre-arb)
Mike Shawaryn (pre-arb)
Colten Brewer (pre-arb)
Sam Travis (pre-arb- may keep around)
Tzu-Wei Lin (pre-arb- may keep around)
Ryan Weber (pre-arb)
Travis Lakins (pre-arb)
Bobby Poyner (pre-arb)
Trevor Kelley (pre-arb)
Joey Curletta (pre-arb)
Chris Owings (pre-arb)
1-2 Arbs left (Trade if Rebuilding or Keep if Not?)
Mookie Betts (1 arb left)
Brandon Workman (1 arb)
Eduardo Rodriguez (2 arbs)
Matt Barnes (2 arbs)
Heath Hembree (2 arbs)

Certain Keepers (Hard to trade due to Contract Cost):
Chris Sale
David Price
JD Martinez
Nathan Eovaldi

Certain Keepers (Build Around the Core/Promising pre-arb Players))
Raphel Devers (pre-arb)
Xander Bogaerts
Andrew Benintendi (3 arbs)
Christian Vazquez
Michael Chavis (pre-arb- could be traded or be handed 1B or 2B)
Marcus Walden (pre-arb)
Josh Taylor (pre-arb)
Marco Hernandez (pre-arb)

Rule 5 Candidates:
Christopher Acosta
Fabian Andrade
Yoan Aybar
Roldani Baldwin
Eduard Bazardo
Gary Calvo
Marino Campana
Pedro Castellanos
Rusney Castillo
CJ Chatham
Jake Cosart
Ricardo Cubillan
Bobby Dalbec
Enmanuel De Jesus
Chad De La Guerra
Jhonathan Diaz
Jerry Downs
Devon Fisher
Matthew Gorst
Kyle Hart
Trenton Kemp
Matt Kent
Adam Lau
Nick Lovullo
Everlouis Lozada
Tate Matheny
Samuel Miranda
Oddanier Mosqueda
Josh Ockimey
Angel Padron
Yorvin Pantoja
Keibert Petit
Roniel Raudes
Austin Rei
Hildemaro Requena
Jeremy Rivera
Kleiber Rodriguez
Jake Romanski
Jagger Rusconi
Alberto Schmidt
Andrew Schwaab
Nick Sciortino
Kevin Steen
Cole Sturgeon
Kervin Suarez
Luke Tendler
Josh Tobias
Marcus Wilson

It might be a hard winter to debate, until we know what the spending choice will be. I'm leaning towards re-setting this winter, but going for one more ring in 2020 and re-setting after 2020 might be more likely. Then again, maybe we never re-set.

Let's keep it real, and keep personal attacks on other threads.

I'll do a budget analysis, soon.

[S5Dewey]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

[moonslav59]

I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.

[Nick]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.

You are what your offensive stats say you are.....and JBJ is not a very good hitter despite positive streaks that surfaces from time to time. I agree that good defensive center fielders are not hard to find. $10M can go long ways in finding a back end starter or couple of relievers.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

Names?

[moonslav59]

Names?

I've named quite a few several times but can only remember Billy Hamilton and Ligares. I think Dyson might be available, too. All will cost way less than JBJ's arb.

[S5Dewey]

I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

[S5Dewey]

You mean signing JBJ long term or for just 2020?

It's not so certain Betts will be traded, if he doesn't extend or seems contractually out of reach beyond 2020.

One main reason I am for resetting after 2019 and NOT 2020, is that we'd have a better chance at keeping Betts. The side issue would be to find a much cheaper but near equally great defensive CF'er.

Both are FAs after 2020, so I just don't see the insurance argument like you do, but we both want and demand great D up the middle.

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

[notin]

JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

I like JBJ but in no way is he any type of insurance on Mookie’s departure. Mookie is an MVP. Bradley is a one time All Star with good defense and remarkably inconsistent offense who is set to make $10-12mill.

Obviously we don’t know for certain if a reset is in the plans, but it makes more sense to do it after 2019 than 2020. Resetting after 2019 allows the Sox to spend HEAVILY on Betts at minimal penalty. Resetting after 2020 would mean Betts is definitely not coming back.

BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)

I expect JD to stay, but obviously the only man he’ll be talking to is Scott Boras. But JD makes $23mill in 2020 and then his salary drops to $19.8mill for 2021 and 2022. As he can also opt out after 2020, I expect he might opt out after 2020 and try to get a 3-4 year deal at a lower AAV...

[notin]

Names?

The free agent market will have:
Juan Lagares
Cameron Maybin
Billy Hamilton
Jarrod Dyson

Via trade, some possibilities include:
Ender Inciarte
Michael Taylor
Travis Jankowski
Kevin Pillar

Inciarte is a great fit and Atlanta is ready to move on...

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two? (Note: Ottavino went for $9M x 3 years.)

OPS Comp:

JBJ:
.728 in 2019 and .723 the last 3 years.
Hamilton:
.543 in 2019 and .613 the last 3 years.

Jarrod Dyson
.686 in 2019 and .647 the last 3 years.

Leonys Martin
.619 in 2019 and .659 the last 3 years.

Juan Lagares
.581 in 2019 and .641 the last 3 years.

My guess is there are more- maybe some unknown defensive whiz in AAA that is currently blocked.

[Bellhorn04]

For argument's sake, let's say all the Sox scouts agree that Billy Hamilton is a better defender than JBJ.

Let's also say he will sign for $2.5M next year with us and JBJ would win a $10.5M arb this winter, if given the chance.

Would you pay JBJ $8M more for the probable .100 better OPS? Does a .100 better OPS cancel out the better D by Hamilton,let alone the $8M that could help us obtain a decent pitcher or two?

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

[moonslav59]

This is exactly why WAR is a useful tool.

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

2.6 Buxton 295
1.7 Margot 343
1.3 Dyson 370
0.9 JBJ 461
0.3 Hamilton 309
-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)
-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

[S5Dewey]

True, but WAR is also a product or playing a lot. Here are some 2019 WAR numbers with their PAs listed:

2.6 Buxton 295
1.7 Margot 343
1.3 Dyson 370
0.9 JBJ 461
0.3 Hamilton 309
-0.6 Martin 264 (fangraphs had his value at $19.6M in 2018.)
-0.6 Broxton 216 (fangraphs: $27.9M previous 3 yrs)

That's all fine and good but when a fan who's NOT a geek looks at the WAR of two players does that fan then think, "Yes' but Player A has played in 35 more games than Player B. Therefore it's not a fair comparison.

In fact, does anyone here do that, or do we just accept that a player with a better WAR is the better player?
Think about it.