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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #3166
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's how I see our biggest FA signings or re-signings (Some were not all bad or all good- these are overall grades.):

    This is not a complete list. Add names, if you think of some...
    The problem is you have, for example, Sizemore and Sandoval in the same basket. Both were flops, but one was insignificant and one was a disaster.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    Theme song of 2020 Red Sox: "Tanks for the Memories"

  2. #3167
    Deity Slasher9's Avatar
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    Manny and Ortiz have to be in their own category.

    Great to EPIC or something similar to that.
    other names i have posted under: none

  3. #3168
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.
    It was not accepted because of being lop-sided not because of the 1.10 difference. It will accept differences larger than that.
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  4. #3169
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    The problem is you have, for example, Sizemore and Sandoval in the same basket. Both were flops, but one was insignificant and one was a disaster.
    True, but I didn't want to create 16 categories.
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  5. #3170
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    True, but I didn't want to create 16 categories.
    But you're just the man to do it.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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  6. #3171
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Jake Marisnik traded to the Mets for scraps.

    There goes one guy I thought we could replace JBJ with at little cost.
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  7. #3172
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.
    What Iím reading here is youíre attempts to discredit the thing really just show me your missing the point of itís usefulness.

    Donít be one of those people who launches into attempts to discredit everything they donít like or understand. Please. I enjoy your other posts...

  8. #3173
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Jake Marisnik traded to the Mets for scraps.

    There goes one guy I thought we could replace JBJ with at little cost.
    Because Marisnick is such a unique talent.

    I say, bring on Broxton!!
    Last edited by notin; 12-05-2019 at 05:27 PM.

  9. #3174
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's how I see our biggest FA signings or re-signings (Some were not all bad or all good- these are overall grades.):

    This is not a complete list. Add names, if you think of some...

    Bad to Bust

    Steve Avery

    Ah no you don't. Don't rob my young adulthood. I went to this game in '98 I think. Avery starting against the Mariners. It was the Greatest Game of All Time. Ken Griffey Jr. shocked everyone at Fenway by bunting. Bunt went down the first base line. Avery runs over to scoop it up. Uses his left hand to toss it to first base and just barely beats Griffey. Not too many other pitchers could have made that play. Avery goes 5 innings, but shuts the Mariners down. We of course end up winning with a Nomar grand slam after a Tom Gordon appearance. All the players in that game, so epic. We all stayed standing after the game ended chanting MVP! MVP! to Nomar.

  10. #3175
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    What I’m reading here is you’re attempts to discredit the thing really just show me your missing the point of it’s usefulness.

    Don’t be one of those people who launches into attempts to discredit everything they don’t like or understand. Please. I enjoy your other posts...
    I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

    I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.

  11. #3176
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

    I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.
    There are plenty of realities in trades that the simulator can never catch.

    What it does s compare projected WAR at some dollar value vs projected salary for every player. If the financial WAR number is greater, the player has a positive trade value and so on. It can’t determine need or team strategy or anything personal about the player and doesn’t to my knowledge incorporate NTCs. It just tells you if a trade is fair from a performance vs money standpoint.

    Funny thing, the Braves probably reject your Acuna trade, because it would cost them something like $70mill. The simulator doesn’t take self-imposed team payrolls into account either.

    One thing it does do is not allow 7 players for 1 player trades. Also it has a range for acceptance, and a $1mill difference always works. And apparently there is some logic where a team getting a high value player has to give up a player with something like 50% or so of his value. You know - getting something good back. To prevent those 4 quarters for a dollar trades fans make up on their own and think are fair.

    The kicker,’most trades probably don’t match up on it. That’s ok. Bad trades happen. Most trades are probab;y worse for one team. Ever read the posts on MLBTR on a thread about a trade? The deal can be 10 minutes old, but inevitably someone will ask which team won the trade?

    The simulator answers for that guy. It also really accepts trades that are equal financially (the guys who wrote it worked in finance). Frankly, I see better and more realistic trade proposals on that page than in any MLB.com article. Those guys are ALWAYS overestimating what a player can get. And here is the funny part - when reality kicks in and that trade doesn't happen, fans blame the GM!!! “Ian Browne said Bloom could get Lux, May, Ruiz and a house in Malibu for Betts. But our stupid GM settled for Tony Freakin' Gonsolin and Julio Urias!! Fire Bloom!!!”
    Last edited by notin; 12-05-2019 at 06:12 PM.

  12. #3177
    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    Ah no you don't. Don't rob my young adulthood. I went to this game in '98 I think. Avery starting against the Mariners. It was the Greatest Game of All Time. Ken Griffey Jr. shocked everyone at Fenway by bunting. Bunt went down the first base line. Avery runs over to scoop it up. Uses his left hand to toss it to first base and just barely beats Griffey. Not too many other pitchers could have made that play. Avery goes 5 innings, but shuts the Mariners down. We of course end up winning with a Nomar grand slam after a Tom Gordon appearance. All the players in that game, so epic. We all stayed standing after the game ended chanting MVP! MVP! to Nomar.
    That 76-85 Seattle team in 1998 featured three Hall of Famers in Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson (plus Alex Rodriguez with Hall of Fame numbers).

    Here is your box score:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...99809020.shtml

  13. #3178
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

    .

    Maybe because as Red Sox fans, we are a bit spoiled by our excessive budget? If it means anything, Dave Dombrowski clearly shares your view about the trade value of minor leaguers. And he has used it to build several successful teams.

    If the Sox deal away a prospect who works out elsewhere, they can fill the void with an expensive free agent. Bye bye Kopech and Buttrey. Hello, Eovaldi and Kimbrel. But not every team can do this. Think Pittsburgh misses Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? How are they going to replace them? (Probably by dealing Starling Marte.) For some teams, those non-major leaguers are essential components of the future, and when they don't work out, bad things happen. But when you have a budget, that is a necessary risk.

    And really, even when a GM does employ the Dombrowski method for a successful team, the eventual lack of those not-yet-ready-for-prime-time players can create several years of a weak performing and expensive franchise. Dombrowski has a habit of leaving teams in that state, as well...
    Last edited by notin; 12-05-2019 at 06:19 PM.

  14. #3179
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

    I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.
    It's 'Acuna Matada for God's sake!

    Seriously though, his value is based on alot of positive things all adding into one massive number.

    He turns 22 soon and already has over 1200 PAs.

    He's got 9 years of team control at an ungodly low price: 20:$1M, 21:$5M, 22:$15M, 23:$17M, 24:$17M, 25:$17M, 26:$17M, 27:$17M club option ($10M buyout), 28:$17M club option.

    He has a career .897 OPS with 67 HRs in 1202 PAs.

    He became a plus UZR OF'erin 2019.

    When you look at the trade value of someone like Betts (50 value),who has just 1 year of team control and will be paid about $28M, one could argue it's Betts who has an inflated value not Acuna (200 value).




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  15. #3180
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Tome, the trade simulator is just a fun way to throw trade ideas around.

    Looking at the Braves team,one can be blown away by the values placed on so many players and prospects they have:
    (Sox players in red)

    200 Acuna
    176 Albies
    127 Devers
    91 Bogaerts
    79 Pache
    70 Soroka
    57 Waters
    50 Devers
    49 Riley
    37 Freeman
    36 Beni
    32 Swanson
    31 Anderson
    28 ERod
    25 Barnes
    25 Casas
    23 Vazquez

    21 Wright
    19 Dalbec
    18 Chavis
    16 Mata

    15 Langeleriers
    15 Muller
    14 Shewmake
    13 Newcomb
    12 Toussaint
    12 Duran
    11 D Hernandez

    10 Davidson

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