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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #4561
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within?

    It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...
    It's not happening, but I'll bite.

    If we are 10 over in July, some players stock will have risen.

    I'd still have a fire sale.

    There's no way I'd trade prospects to try and improve our chances.

    It's time to let go. It's not worth betting the future on 25 to 1 odds or worse.

    We need to start yesterday on improving our long term plan. We've already wasted time going nowhere.

    If we wanted to win in 2020, we could have done something about it. We didn't. There's nothing left in the cupboards to raid.

    Clinging to super long odds on a 2020 miracle is going to hamper and prolong our rise back to the top.
    Last edited by moonslav59; 01-21-2020 at 10:38 PM.
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  2. #4562
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    We have:
    - no manager
    - GM under $ restraints
    - health question marks on 3 of our SP's
    - little depth at 2b & of
    - on paper not much of a BP
    - Betts insistent on going to FA after the 2020 season

    2020 is a dead man walking. Red Sox MUST reset the LT this season. if they wait another year it will be worse for us. much, much worse.
    Makes me want to get all pumped up to watch them - NOT. I have no interest in watching them if what you are professing is actually going to happen. Every year that I have watched them since 1955, regardless of how bad they have been, I have always been led to believe that there in fact is a chance. I have believed it too. It is that belief that is important to me. Our ownership team has stated that their number one goal is to put a team out on the field this year that will be competitive. This in no way sounds to me that they have raised the white flag and are going all in on the future rebuild that many of you here have emphasized has to happen for so long now. Guess we get to see what happens.

  3. #4563
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cp176 View Post
    Makes me want to get all pumped up to watch them - NOT. I have no interest in watching them if what you are professing is actually going to happen. Every year that I have watched them since 1955, regardless of how bad they have been, I have always been led to believe that there in fact is a chance. I have believed it too. It is that belief that is important to me. Our ownership team has stated that their number one goal is to put a team out on the field this year that will be competitive. This in no way sounds to me that they have raised the white flag and are going all in on the future rebuild that many of you here have emphasized has to happen for so long now. Guess we get to see what happens.
    It looks like the plan is to role the dice we have and wait until July to make any hard choices.

    Punting is a strategy better suited for football, but sometimes it may work in baseball. At least it keeps enough fans thinking there is a chance.

    It's not like I think we have no chance. We have a better chance than some years, long ago, and I still watched every pitch of every game back then, too.

    It would be nice to see some magic, this year. I just hope punting does not lengthen the rise back to the top. It looks like I'm in a small minority on this one, but we'll see what happens.
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  4. #4564
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It looks like the plan is to role the dice we have and wait until July to make any hard choices.

    Punting is a strategy better suited for football, but sometimes it may work in baseball. At least it keeps enough fans thinking there is a chance.

    It's not like I think we have no chance. We have a better chance than some years, long ago, and I still watched every pitch of every game back then, too.

    It would be nice to see some magic, this year. I just hope punting does not lengthen the rise back to the top. It looks like I'm in a small minority on this one, but we'll see what happens.
    This is a terrible punt.

    So far the Sox have not unloaded one big contract, not trade away one veteran player, and not acquired one prospect. If the Sox are rebuilding, they need to learn how to do it...

  5. #4565
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    This is a terrible punt.

    So far the Sox have not unloaded one big contract, not trade away one veteran player, and not acquired one prospect. If the Sox are rebuilding, they need to learn how to do it...
    Really the only meaningful contracts that can be shed are JBJ and Mookie/Price or Mookie/Eovaldi. Our asking price is too high for other clubs to bite but it doesn't make sense to let go of players and not get a sold return. Bloom is trying to do that with other teams knowing that the Sox would like to reset and that further erodes his bargaining position. I am not going to criticize Bloom for tryiing to put the Sox in the best position. There is still time to make moves.

  6. #4566
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    I think somebody better define 'punt' as it applies here.
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  7. #4567
    Deity Slasher9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within?

    It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...
    if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.
    in this scenario 2020 is "dead" but 2021 and beyond we have the current core for years to come.
    other names i have posted under: none

  8. #4568
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I think somebody better define 'punt' as it applies here.
    "punt" is not always giving up on a game. Usually, it is not.

    We are not taking a knee, down 28-0 with 30 seconds left, but we are punting the ball away by not making any significant moves to even replace the players we lost from a non playoff 2019 team.

    Don't get me wrong, I was fine with not going out and spending this year, but I expected a reset. Doing neither is my last choice (not that we can't still spend & compete or reset by season's end).
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  9. #4569
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    This is a terrible punt.
    It's one of those punts that gained about 10-15 yards in field position, if that.

    The only reason I said 10-15 is that we are still in a position where we can easily reset, even if we wait until July- unless, God forbid, Betts, Price & Eovaldi are all hurt.
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  10. #4570
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.
    in this scenario 2020 is "dead" but 2021 and beyond we have the current core for years to come.
    That's how I see it: maybe lose Betts, so we can keep him.

    If we can shed Price's contract by packaging him with Betts, our budget will be set up very nicely for 2021-2022. Just shedding Betts to reset, but keeping Price or Eovaldi will just create a similar situation as we face now: too little budget space to fill all our most pressing needs.
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  11. #4571
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's one of those punts that gained about 10-15 yards in field position, if that.

    The only reason I said 10-15 is that we are still in a position where we can easily reset, even if we wait until July- unless, God forbid, Betts, Price & Eovaldi are all hurt.
    No. This is a fake punt. But one where the signal call made before the snap is “Fake punt on 3!”

    Or something along the lines of Chico Marx play calling in “Horsefeathers”. But with a rhyme for “fake punt”...

  12. #4572
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    if we trade mookie now and get under the LT tax for 2020...we reset the penalties and can pay him whatever it takes when he hits FA.
    This is just a total fallacy. Resetting the tax rate does not mean we can pay Mookie $400 million.
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  13. #4573
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    This is just a total fallacy. Resetting the tax rate does not mean we can pay Mookie $400 million.
    If anybody can pay Betts $400M, it's Henry and a small few other owners willing to take that plunge.

    My guess is he gets $350M/10 or 11.

    Certainly resetting makes it more doable, but even if someone outbids us, that money can be used (with much lower taxes) to sign multiple players to get us back to the top.

    50% of $35M is $17.5M. 20% is $7M. That $10M in year one can get us a decent player or two.
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  14. #4574
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    If Mookie walks out that door, he's not coming back in.
    Quote Originally Posted by John Henry View Post
    I reminded baseball ops that we are focused on competitiveness over the next 5 years over and above resetting. You seem to think Chaim was brought in to reduce payroll. That has simply not been the way FSG operates here or across the pond.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fangraphs View Post
    For Boston fans, the deal sucks. The Red Sox didn’t need to back off from contention and trade Mookie Betts. The deal serves principally to increase the Red Sox’s profits with a small increase in their competitive position some years down the line.

  15. #4575
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    No. This is a fake punt. But one where the signal call made before the snap is “Fake punt on 3!”

    Or something along the lines of Chico Marx play calling in “Horsefeathers”. But with a rhyme for “fake punt”...
    I don't disagree, but I seem to be getting mixed messages from you on what you think the Sox should have done.

    I'm all for your position of signing cheap guys to add depth, but are you for resetting or going for one last hurrah?

    I think we both agree playing the middle ground is the worst choice. (Not that we will end up doing this all year.)
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