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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #4621
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    i had him at a payroll hit of $10.3
    shedding Mookies 27.5 and adding the 10.3 should put us right at the 208 number.
    If we traded Price with Mookie, we could call up Castillo, and give him a shot without paying any taxes. Isn't this his last year?
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  2. #4622
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    That's a tenuous comparison.
    Well, the point is to remember it’s January 22nd and deals certainly happen later than today...

  3. #4623
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    It ain't happening.

    JH has now gone out of his way to assure everyone that the priority is being competitive this year.
    If we are out of it in July, there will be a fire sale to get us under. We could even trade players in June or early July to increase the savings.

    Cost saved, if traded at the halfway point (LUX tax $):
    15.5 Price
    13.5 Betts
    12.8 Sale
    11.0 JD
    10.0 Bogey (NOT)
    8.5 Eovaldi
    5.5 JBJ

    Cost saved at the 2/3 point:
    10.3 Price
    9.0 Betts
    8.5 Sale
    7.3 JD
    5.7 Eovaldi
    3.7 JBJ

    According to cots, we are about $17.7M over (projected).

    Lots of combinations to get under.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  4. #4624
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Well, the point is to remember it’s January 22nd and deals certainly happen later than today...
    I realize that. And I'm quite comfortable in saying the probability of Betts being traded is remote at this point.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  5. #4625
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    If we traded Price with Mookie, we could call up Castillo, and give him a shot without paying any taxes. Isn't this his last year?
    One somewhat awful deal that does everything for Boston is to trade Betts and Price plus $21mill for Gonsolin, Joc Pederson, and 28yo Cuban RHP Yasiel Sierra (owed $13mill through 2021 with a $6mill AAV)

    This move would allow for an easy reset as it clears about $38 mill off the tax number.

    It does leave the Sox exposed vs LHP with both Bradley and Pederson starting in the OF. But this is where Bloom’s plan of hoarding every available LHP shows it’s true logic...

  6. #4626
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    If we are out of it in July, there will be a fire sale to get us under. We could even trade players in June or early July to increase the savings.

    Cost saved, if traded at the halfway point (LUX tax $):
    15.5 Price
    13.5 Betts
    12.8 Sale
    11.0 JD
    10.0 Bogey (NOT)
    8.5 Eovaldi
    5.5 JBJ

    Cost saved at the 2/3 point:
    10.3 Price
    9.0 Betts
    8.5 Sale
    7.3 JD
    5.7 Eovaldi
    3.7 JBJ

    According to cots, we are about $17.7M over (projected).

    Lots of combinations to get under.
    And Betts and JBJ are the only ones who would be true rentals.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  7. #4627
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I realize that. And I'm quite comfortable in saying the probability of Betts being traded is remote at this point.
    I think it always was. Trading a $27mill salary is rarely easy...

  8. #4628
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    One somewhat awful deal that does everything for Boston is to trade Betts and Price plus $21mill for Gonsolin, Joc Pederson, and 28yo Cuban RHP Yasiel Sierra (owed $13mill through 2021 with a $6mill AAV)

    This move would allow for an easy reset as it clears about $38 mill off the tax number.

    It does leave the Sox exposed vs LHP with both Bradley and Pederson starting in the OF. But this is where Bloom’s plan of hoarding every available LHP shows it’s true logic...
    Trading Mookie straight up for a prospect is the easiest way to re-set by far.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  9. #4629
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I think it always was. Trading a $27mill salary is rarely easy...
    Trade simulator has him at plus $50 mill, no?
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  10. #4630
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Trading Mookie straight up for a prospect is the easiest way to re-set by far.

    I agree. Or even a few prospects...

  11. #4631
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Trade simulator has him at plus $50 mill, no?
    That’s not his salary. His trade value is roughly his projected fWAR dollars minus his salary, with some other details (such as the draft pick comp you get from a Mookie).

    But he will make $27mill this year, which he will get paid. In cash. After every game...

  12. #4632
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    That’s not his salary. His trade value is roughly his projected fWAR dollars minus his salary, with some other details (such as the draft pick comp you get from a Mookie).
    I know. Why would I think his salary is "plus $50 mill"?
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  13. #4633
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I know. Why would I think his salary is "plus $50 mill"?
    Because, in theory, his value is $77M - $27M salary.
    When you say it's gonna happen now
    When exactly do you mean?

  14. #4634
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Because, in theory, his surplus value is $77M - $27M salary.
    Ftfy

  15. #4635
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Because, in theory, his value is $77M - $27M salary.
    I know.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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