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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #1741
    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    I have you right at the first threshold if JD and JBJ come back. If JD opts out, you’ll be under. But damn you need him
    We definitely do. I've been wondering if he can take the first base job if he stays.

  2. #1742
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    The Red Sox reportedly have spoken with former Cincinnati Reds manager Bryan Price about their pitching coach opening:

    https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/stat...70571630264320

    Which raises the question of who is speaking on behalf of the Red Sox.
    The interim crew. It's not like the offices are empty...

  3. #1743
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    'Odds' was not the right choice of words then. Those are betting odds, not statistical odds based on correlations.
    Exactly.

    Bear in mind betting odds not only take outcome into account, but also betting action. Just because more people were betting on the Dodgers did not make them a better team, but it was something Vegas odds-makers had to consider so as not to go broke in the event they actually won...

  4. #1744
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Houston has added top of the line starting pitching each of last three years. That's how you go for it all.

    Yankees could have used one this year.....
    Exactly! None of this sign a 5th starter crap.
    Sox 4 Ever

  5. #1745
    MassLive speculates on next head of the Red Sox front office:

    https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019...available.html

  6. #1746
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The opening odds given are largely based on correlations and trends from the regular season along with who people are betting on or are likely to bet on.

    I just can't believe the Brewers, A's and Ray's had close to the same chance as the Astros or even the Yankees or Dodgers.

    Maybe your idea of close is different than mine.
    I don't know exactly how the odds makers come up with the betting odds, but it's not strongly based on statistical analysis. Winning in the postseason just does not correlate at all to regular season wins, or any of the other categories listed in the chart below, including payroll, for those who think that spending more gives you a better chance in the postseason.

    The strongest correlation in all of those bars below is an R^2 of .122. In other words, there is no correlation between postseason wins and anything. The playoffs are a crapshoot, or as Billy Beane likes to say, a "gauntlet of randomness".

    I apologize for the size of the graphic.


  7. #1747
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Exactly.

    Bear in mind betting odds not only take outcome into account, but also betting action. Just because more people were betting on the Dodgers did not make them a better team, but it was something Vegas odds-makers had to consider so as not to go broke in the event they actually won...
    Thank you. That was my understanding, that the odds makers take into account who the people are betting on.

  8. #1748
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Thank you. That was my understanding, that the odds makers take into account who the people are betting on.
    The opening line is more pure, then the line moves as people bet more on one team.

    To me, 2-3 teams combined have a way better chance than the other 7-8 teams every year. That is far from a crap shoot.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #1749
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The opening line is more pure, then the line moves as people bet more on one team.

    To me, 2-3 teams combined have a way better chance than the other 7-8 teams every year. That is far from a crap shoot.
    When there is no correlation between any data and postseason wins, that's the very definition of a crap shoot.

  10. #1750
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The opening line is more pure, then the line moves as people bet more on one team.
    Not always true.

    Historically the Yankees and Cubs have dominated betting action from the get go, and the oddsmakers took it into account. In the case of the Cubs, there were literally thousands betting “this is the year” every season with small bets on high odds. So there were plenty of years where the Cubs were the worst team in the league, but the opening line didn’t reflect it...

  11. #1751
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Thank you. That was my understanding, that the odds makers take into account who the people are betting on.
    The equivalent horse racing odds are first determined by an expert, who establishes the Morning Line Odds. Since there are many who bet that are not particularly sophisticated, those ML odds tend to sway the betting, however, right up to the time the horses go into the gates, the odds continue to change to reflect the money being bet. Since money that comes in at the last minute might be changing the final odds even after the horses leave the gate. The track gets their takeout and want greater amounts to be bet since they make money on each dollar bet. The only play where that doesn't work is where bettors go big on what is called bridge jumping by betting an odds on favorite to come in third and are guaranteed a minimum takeout.


    I assume it is the same with Vegas odds except maybe not that immediate as games take a long time.

  12. #1752
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Not always true.

    Historically the Yankees and Cubs have dominated betting action from the get go, and the oddsmakers took it into account. In the case of the Cubs, there were literally thousands betting “this is the year” every season with small bets on high odds. So there were plenty of years where the Cubs were the worst team in the league, but the opening line didn’t reflect it...
    I said "more" pure not pure.

    Certainly the opening line takes into account bettor trends.

    As it turns out the odds are pretty darn accurate. They are a lot more accurate than calling the playoffs a total crap shoot- not that anyone is saying every team has 10:1 odds going in.
    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #1753
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Here's a look back at the World Series winners and the runner- ups and their W-L league ranking that year (not that W-Ls sets who are the best teams):

    2019
    1HOU or 3WAS


    2018
    1BOS
    2LAD

    2017
    2HOU
    1LAD

    2016
    1Cubs
    2CLE

    2015
    1KCR
    5NYM

    2014
    5SFG
    4KCR


    2013
    1BOS
    1STL

    2012
    3SFG
    7DET

    2011
    4STL
    2TEX

    2010
    2SFG
    4TEX

    2009
    1NYY
    2PHI

    2008
    2PHI
    2TBR

    2007
    1BOS
    2COL

    2006
    5STL
    3DET


    2005
    1CWS
    3HOU

    2004
    2BOS
    1STL

    32 Teams made the WS in the last 16 seasons:

    21 were a top 2 team in their league
    11 were ranked 3 or worse in their league.

    Of the 15 teams that won the WS:

    11 were a top 2 team that year. (12 were top 3.)
    4 were ranked 3rd or worse.

    I'm just taking the top 4 teams vs the other 6 and look at the massive tilt to the better teams.

    21 to 11 on just making it and 11 to 4 on winning it all.

    If we gave the top 4 all equal odds, then those 4 should have gone to the WS 40% of 32... 12.8 times NOT 21.

    If The Astros win, that means a top 2 team has won 12 out of 16 years, when the odds show 40% of 16 at 6.4 times.

    It's really not even close.

    Sure, a lowly ranked team can win every now and again, but it is far from a crap shoot.


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  14. #1754
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Sorry to break the bad news:

    Gorkys Hernandez, Josh Smith and Chris Owings elected for free agency rather than accept their demotion to AAA.

    What are we to do?
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #1755
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's a look back at the World Series winners and the runner- ups and their W-L league ranking that year (not that W-Ls sets who are the best teams):

    2019
    1HOU or 3WAS


    2018
    1BOS
    2LAD

    2017
    2HOU
    1LAD

    2016
    1Cubs
    2CLE

    2015
    1KCR
    5NYM

    2014
    5SFG
    4KCR


    2013
    1BOS
    1STL

    2012
    3SFG
    7DET

    2011
    4STL
    2TEX

    2010
    2SFG
    4TEX

    2009
    1NYY
    2PHI

    2008
    2PHI
    2TBR

    2007
    1BOS
    2COL

    2006
    5STL
    3DET


    2005
    1CWS
    3HOU

    2004
    2BOS
    1STL

    32 Teams made the WS in the last 16 seasons:

    21 were a top 2 team in their league
    11 were ranked 3 or worse in their league.

    Of the 15 teams that won the WS:

    11 were a top 2 team that year. (12 were top 3.)
    4 were ranked 3rd or worse.

    I'm just taking the top 4 teams vs the other 6 and look at the massive tilt to the better teams.

    21 to 11 on just making it and 11 to 4 on winning it all.

    If we gave the top 4 all equal odds, then those 4 should have gone to the WS 40% of 32... 12.8 times NOT 21.

    If The Astros win, that means a top 2 team has won 12 out of 16 years, when the odds show 40% of 16 at 6.4 times.

    It's really not even close.

    Sure, a lowly ranked team can win every now and again, but it is far from a crap shoot.


    Nice work moon.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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