A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

One year for JBJ. Let him go to arb if necessary but keep him around until the Mookie issue gets settled one way or the other.

My "insurance" argument is that we should make every effort to keep at least one of those guys in the outfield into 2021.

During 2020 one of two things will happen. Either 1) JBJ will become the hitter we want him to be, or 2) He'll be the hitter we've always seen. At that point we'll have a good idea of his value to the team. That value will be higher to the team if Mookie is no longer with us, because of JBJ's defensive ability and it'll be lower if Mookie is still with the team. If he becomes the hitter we want him to be his value will be higher and we can either keep him or move him with a lot higher trade value. If it's lower he can then be non-tendered if necessary.

I say bite the bullet for 2020 and make another run at it, then reorganize for 2021. We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the ONLY reason this team isn't looking at 100+ wins this year is because of the pitching staff. Changing the defense of the team solves a problem that doesn't exist.

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

[OH FOY!]

The way I look at it is this, if you want to sign High Priced FA's, fine, but Owner has to go all in, and not cry later, he will pay Luxury Tax.
You invest, sometimes you have to invest more, for the results needed.

[OH FOY!]

Even if JBJ hit .800 in 2020, there's no way I feel secure that is the JBJ for 2021 and beyond. There's no "non tender" after 2020. He'll be a FA just like Betts. He won't get a QO like Betts. He's not worth $10M. He's not the only top defensive CF'er available this winter.

Even if we bite the bullet and go for one more shot at a ring, I doubt we go over the max line. I still think it makes sense to not pay JBJ $10+M. We'll still be up against the max line without JBJ and will need money to build up the pen and 1B or 2B. I say just get a cheaper but still great defensive CF'er and build up the pen & 5th starter slot.

Also, we can always sign JBJ as a FA (after we trade him this winter) for 2021, if we lose Betts. Or, sign some other defensive CF'er.

I'm a huge JBJ fan, but he's not the only great defensive CF'er in MLB. He's also getting older and seems to be on the down swing curve.

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

[moonslav59]

Here's where we stand right now, for Payroll, in 2020.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-r.../payroll/2020/

Says we have 56,666,667 in Cap Space. Tough to keep it under Luxury Tax. Just Betts alone will be over 20 million.
Just want to point out Rusney is not on the Luxury Tax Cap.

We can reset by trading JBJ and not signing any FA to more than $2M a year. Keep just about all the arb players, including Betts.

We can easily reset by trading Betts & JBJ. We could even sign a couple FAs that could be part of the future plan, and stay under the first tax line. Reset and go larger in 2021.

I want to keep Betts, but I trust the Sox to know his true value and offer him that or a little more. It's the one area the Sox have always been very good at.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

[moonslav59]

Little money. 10 million is squat, when your paying Price 31 million. That's how I see it.

$10M would have gotten us Ottavino.

It's not squat.

"Going all out" likely means still staying under the max line. That means the budget is limited and we have to pick and choose where to spend.

Do you really think a year older JBJ is worth $10M?

Spending large is one of the reasons we won a ring, yes, but it's also part of the reason we are at or near the breaking point.

[moonslav59]

True but 10m goes a long way when you are trying to improve your bullpen. For example, 10m, plus a little more (most likely), will secure a closer like W.Smith. Would we rather have Bradley Jr. or a quality closer? I'll take the closer.

I also think Duran is ready to be a ninth hitter next year at the major league level. I've heard all of the arguments against Duran, but my immediate expectations are low--I see Duran as a ninth hitter. The Red Sox should get quality defense from Duran in CF and small ball tendencies--a singles hitter who can steal bases with his blazing speed. And Duran should continue to get better over the next few years in terms of line drive production (doubles rather than singles) and patience at the plate. The Red Sox offense can carry a ninth hitter as Duran continues to develop.

I'm not sold on Duran being ready by next year (or ever), so I'd rather spend $1-3M on a known great defensive CF'er. That would save $7-10M by trading or non tendering JBJ.

I like the chances of our system depth at 1B and 2B over the OF.

1B: Chavis, Travis, Dalbec, Ockimey (JD?)
2B: Chavis, Marco, Lin, Chatham
OF: Duran and nobody

I like all of the guys listed at 1B and 2B over Duran, in terms of 2020 only.

[S5Dewey]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

[S5Dewey]

Irrelevant.

Bradley makes $8.8mill and will get somewhere in the $10-12 mill range in arbitration. Dombrowski isn’t going to pay that much for a glove only CF. No team is

So when Bradley reaches free agency, the Sox will approach him with an offer. If it’s the best offer, he comes back. And it might be the best offer.

If you don’t like the Leon comp (for irrelevant reasons, Oakland did the same with Mike Fiers

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

[notin]

...and C'mon. You can't use someone as a comp and then say it's irrelevant! If you didn't think it was relevant you wouldn't have used him as a comp!

The comparison was the process.

How much do you think JBJ should be paid?

[notin]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

You’re going full tilt straw man here.

I said the Sox likely go defense in center but never set a price.

But I did notice everyone you listed was cheaper than $10-12mill, and by a lot. Including Legares, since it’s the AAV of the contract that matters and Legares’ contract is for 5 years $23mill, which means an AAV of $4.7mill, not $9mill.

My choice would be Inciarte, whose having a rough year but Atlanta appears ready to move on from a “written to be traded” deal.

Of course the Sox could also move on a RF and put Betts in CF. Or sign/trade for someone and move Benintendi to CF. They have a ton of options here...

[moonslav59]

OK, maybe I'm wrong about this. Maybe those players who are ALMOST as good as a GG'r and can outhit JBJ are everywhere, and they'll sign for $3-4M/year. So lets look at the ones mentioned earlier in the thread. All stats are for 2019.

JBJ - .224/.728, $8.5M

Billy Hamilton - .250/.500, $7.5M
Juan Legares - .215/581, $9.0M
Jarren Duran - .312/.795 (in AA) (haha), but he'll play for the ML Minimum!
Jarrod Dyson - .254/.686, 3.75M, but he's 34 years old!

The only one worth considering is Cameron Maybin .289/.879, and he's playing for the ML Minimum after playing for 10 teams in 12 years and being released by Cleveland. Can you spell "Crapshoot"?

It looks like we could sign any of these guys and save <$4M. Sometimes you get what you pay for.

So, we get a .550-.700 hitter who plays near GG defense.

That could easily be JBJ next year at 2X , 3X or 4X the cost.

Hamilton & Dyson may get $2M.

There's probably a great defensive CF'er on some team that hits .600 to.700 that we could get by trading Johnson of Velazquez for.

Hamilton has a UZR/150 of 10.0 over the last 3 years.

Dyson is at 9.3.

Lagares is at 9.2.

I'm not high on Maybin. Others who might be available for cheap could be...

7.0 Jon Jay (was traded this year for not too much)
6.0 Keon Broxton (traded this year)
5.9 Leonys Martin (traded this year)
4.5 Inciarte
4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)
Maybe...
4.9 Manuel Margot (who was demoted at one point this year)

I know UZR/150 is not perfect, but all of the above had a better number than JBJ's 4.1 over the past 3 seasons.

I doubt any loss on defense would be noticable or significant. It could even be better than the 2020 JBJ defense.

If it comes down to offense, then the whole argument we have been using to defend JBJ all the years Meant little.

Look, I love JBJ, but there is just no need to pay $10M for him next year. If we could non tender him and re-sign him for $4-5M, I'm all in.

We need every dollar to upgrade other positions or to try and re-set the tax.

[notin]

Yeah I’d give Brockton a legit chance over Maybin myself. But I doubt Dombrowski mucks about with either one. He might even get a corner OF and shift either Betts or Benintendi to CF...

[Bellhorn04]

4.5 Inciarte
4.4 Kevin Pillar (traded this year)

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.
Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

Plus you have to give up something for them.

All in all not a big saving.

[moonslav59]

Inciarte is under contract for 2 more years at about 6 mill per.
Pillar is in final arb year and will probably get about 8 mill.

Plus you have to give up something for them.

All in all not a big saving.

Okay, cross those two off the list, although Inciarte's $6.1M tax hit is still $4M less than JBJ's.

I'm not an expert on other team's players, but I'm pretty sure all glove CF'ers are out there for the taking.