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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #901
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Eduardo Rodriguez has enjoyed a fabulous year but has a wide disparity of values by bWAR and fWAR.

    The Boston lefthander and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales have each made 32 starts this year, Rodriguez totaling 191 innings and Gonzales 189 innings.

    Rodriguez with 6.2 bWAR has more than doubled the 2.7 bWAR posted by Gonzales.

    However, Rodriguez with 3.4 fWAR trails Gonzales with 3.6 fWAR.
    It almost seems like bWAR for pitchers is more Old School than New School!
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  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    And that is the rub . The better guys are , the more they get paid .
    The other rub is that the guys under contract get paid the same even when they stink or don't play at all.

    There are a lot of rubs.
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  3. #903
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Eduardo Rodriguez has enjoyed a fabulous year but has a wide disparity of values by bWAR and fWAR.

    The Boston lefthander and Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales have each made 32 starts this year, Rodriguez totaling 191 innings and Gonzales 189 innings.

    Rodriguez with 6.2 bWAR has more than doubled the 2.7 bWAR posted by Gonzales.

    However, Rodriguez with 3.4 fWAR trails Gonzales with 3.6 fWAR.

    One website gives Rodriguez a surplus trade value of $26.9 million and Gonzalez a surplus trade value of $39.6 million:

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

    Rodriguez is one year younger than Gonzales but has only two more years of team control while Gonzales has four more years of team control.
    That Gonzalez has double the control but only 1.5 the trade value is a point in ERodís favor...

  4. #904
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    That Gonzalez has double the control but only 1.5 the trade value is a point in ERodís favor...
    Yes, as to who is better.

    ERod has been huge for us over the last 2 years. Reaching 200 IP this year would be a landmark event for Eduardo.
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  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by dgalehouse View Post
    And that is the rub . The better guys are , the more they get paid .
    And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...

  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...
    Certainly true, but with the raises in arb salaries, if your farm system produces a superstar like Mookie Betts, you're still going to be paying him a hefty salary in his last couple of years before free agency.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

  7. #907
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...
    On that note, MLB Prospect Watch ranks Triston Casas No. 86 on its updated Top 100 prospect list:

    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

  8. #908
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And it's also why you need a farm system with good players who don't make any money and why it is unwise to unload them all for highly paid players...
    My feeling exactly. I presume a model for an ideal team would see around 3 good minor leaguers promoted every year to stay under the competitive balance tax first and/or second tier limits. Feeding the club in that way would keep a reasonable percentage of players in the prearb or low arb categories, leaving salary room for some higher paid star quality players, both home grown and also from the FA market. DD's approach did win a title but also placed us far from a perceived ideal model. It will take a disciplined and thoughtful front office to develop a plan for returning the team to full competitiveness. Getting the right GM is the first step of that process. Demanding accountability from the manager, coaches and players is the second step.

  9. #909
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    Gone Are the Days...

    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    My feeling exactly. I presume a model for an ideal team would see around 3 good minor leaguers promoted every year to stay under the competitive balance tax first and/or second tier limits. Feeding the club in that way would keep a reasonable percentage of players in the prearb or low arb categories, leaving salary room for some higher paid star quality players, both home grown and also from the FA market. DD's approach did win a title but also placed us far from a perceived ideal model. It will take a disciplined and thoughtful front office to develop a plan for returning the team to full competitiveness. Getting the right GM is the first step of that process. Demanding accountability from the manager, coaches and players is the second step.
    It's very difficult to keep feeding 2-3 solid players a year from your farm when you keep having picks from 24-30 or worse due to tax penalties. The IFA market is also very hard to dominate, these days.

    I'm not saying it can't be done, but we need to get some people in our scouting and talent evaluation area who know what their doing. Management has to set the tone. It's hard to demand accountability from the players, coaches and the manager, if an important area keeps coming up short.

    Gone are the days where we can sign Devers and DHernandez or Bogey, Iggy & Montas in 2 international signing periods. Gone are the days of drafting Betts, Barnes, JBJ, Swihart, Owens and Noe Ramirez in one draft with the help of 4 comp picks or Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen & Bowden in another with the help of 6 comp picks.

    Trying to rely on just spending big can never be sustainable.

    So, who can we hope will be the "3 per year?" We'll need a lot of luck to get 3 every year from this group:

    2020:
    D Hernandez (unless you counted him for 2019)
    Dalbec
    Chatham
    Ockimey or Duran

    2021
    Houck
    Duran
    Ward

    2022
    Groome
    Casas
    Mata

    2023
    Jimenez
    Flores
    Lugo
    Decker

    We'll need a hell of a lot of luck!


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  10. #910
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's very difficult to keep feeding 2-3 solid players a year from your farm when you keep having picks from 24-30 or worse due to tax penalties. The IFA market is also very hard to dominate, these days.

    I'm not saying it can't be done, but we need to get some people in our scouting and talent evaluation area who know what their doing. Management has to set the tone. It's hard to demand accountability from the players, coaches and the manager, if an important area keeps coming up short.

    Gone are the days where we can sign Devers and DHernandez or Bogey, Iggy & Montas in 2 international signing periods. Gone are the days of drafting Betts, Barnes, JBJ, Swihart, Owens and Noe Ramirez in one draft with the help of 4 comp picks or Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie, Hansen & Bowden in another with the help of 6 comp picks.

    Trying to rely on just spending big can never be sustainable.

    So, who can we hope will be the "3 per year?" We'll need a lot of luck to get 3 every year from this group:

    2020:
    D Hernandez (unless you counted him for 2019)
    Dalbec
    Chatham
    Ockimey or Duran

    2021
    Houck
    Duran
    Ward

    2022
    Groome
    Casas
    Mata

    2023
    Jimenez
    Flores
    Lugo
    Decker

    We'll need a hell of a lot of luck!


    Because DD almost bankrupted our farm system of major talent, we will need a few years to return it to a more ideal producer of ML talent. For the time being, we will need extraordinary development and oddles of luck to get an average of three ML entry players out of the people we currently have in the system. We won't know unless we try these young men out under fire. Something I wished to do in September, but the FO and management wasn't thinking that way.

    Now, we need to hire good people in the front office and directors of player development and then have the patience to let them develop the farm. DD was not going to lead that effort and it was a reasonable move to say goodbye to DD and some of his cronys. The hard part will be finding and signing quality replacements.

  11. #911
    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    Because DD almost bankrupted our farm system of major talent, we will need a few years to return it to a more ideal producer of ML talent. For the time being, we will need extraordinary development and oddles of luck to get an average of three ML entry players out of the people we currently have in the system. We won't know unless we try these young men out under fire. Something I wished to do in September, but the FO and management wasn't thinking that way.

    Now, we need to hire good people in the front office and directors of player development and then have the patience to let them develop the farm. DD was not going to lead that effort and it was a reasonable move to say goodbye to DD and some of his cronys. The hard part will be finding and signing quality replacements.
    Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?

  12. #912
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?
    I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

    I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

    We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

    Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

    Dubon could play 2B or utility.

    If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #913
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

    I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

    We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

    Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

    Dubon could play 2B or utility.

    If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

    No Chris Freakin Sale without giving up Kopech and Moncada. His contract has been team friendly to boot. Lets' see what he does first before we cry like a little baby. How do we know he's not worth his new contract?

  14. #914
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Exactly what young players traded away would have helped us this year or next year?
    Youíre kidding, right?

    Maybe Moncada, Kopech, Allen, Margot, Buttrey, Anderson, Dubon and Quiroz.

    But why would we want 7 or 8 minimum wage players when we can sign a bunch of free agents and price Mookieís way out of town..,

  15. #915
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm not saying I'd like to reverse all these deals, but here's my take:

    I'd love to have Kopech and Logan Allen for next year and beyond.

    We could trade JBJ and have Margot in CF.

    Moncada could be our 2Bman or DH(1B?).

    Dubon could play 2B or utility.

    If we go farther back beyond DD, we could have Montas, Rizzo, Shaw (DD) & others.

    You beat me to the punch. Consistent team competitiveness does require a contribution from the farm on a regular basis. Spending to keep players who distinguish themselves and effective trades and FA pickups are also important. The way baseball is currently arranged, balance is required. The Yankees are spending $233 million this year, so they are spending and they also were smarter with their farm. I am optimistic that the Sox can get their act together and reverse their current trend during the next couple of years. The first thing to do was to recognize that there was a problem. That was brought home in spades as we are out of the POs with 9 games to play.

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