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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

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    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

    The season is not even over, but for some, like myself, looking forward to next year (and beyond) offers more to think and talk about than the remainder of the 2019 season. There is a lot of unknowns about next year.

    Who will be the GM?
    Will we reset the luxury tax and begin some sort of rebuild?
    Will we re-sign any of our free agents to be or try to extend Betts?
    Will JBJ, Leon and others still under team control be back?
    How good can we be under each spending plan we choose?
    If we choose to rebuild, how long might it take to become a top contender again and will anyone on the team now be here to see it?

    Here's a look at the specifics of our current roster and how it relates to next season:

    Free Agents:
    Brock Holt (perhaps the only one who may be back)
    Rick Porcello (the innings eater departs)
    Mitch Moreland (the oft-injured one departs)
    Steve Pearce (We hardly knew ya!)
    Andrew Cashner (Just didn't work out here)

    Likely Deadwood:
    Dustin Pedroia (Chances are just too slight for hopes.)
    Rusney Castillo (Not on 40 man- last year of contract)

    Possible Trade Fillers, Non Tenders or DFA Candidates:
    Jackie Bradley Jr. (Will hate to see him go.)
    Steven Wright (How much more can we take?)
    Sandy Leon (Is being Sale's caddy enough?)
    Ryan Brasier (pre-arb)
    Brian Johnson (No options left)
    Hector Velazquez (pre-arb)
    Mike Shawaryn (pre-arb)
    Colten Brewer (pre-arb)
    Sam Travis (pre-arb- may keep around)
    Tzu-Wei Lin (pre-arb- may keep around)
    Ryan Weber (pre-arb)
    Travis Lakins (pre-arb)
    Bobby Poyner (pre-arb)
    Trevor Kelley (pre-arb)
    Joey Curletta (pre-arb)
    Chris Owings (pre-arb)
    1-2 Arbs left (Trade if Rebuilding or Keep if Not?)
    Mookie Betts (1 arb left)
    Brandon Workman (1 arb)
    Eduardo Rodriguez (2 arbs)
    Matt Barnes (2 arbs)
    Heath Hembree (2 arbs)

    Certain Keepers (Hard to trade due to Contract Cost):
    Chris Sale
    David Price
    JD Martinez
    Nathan Eovaldi

    Certain Keepers (Build Around the Core/Promising pre-arb Players))
    Raphel Devers (pre-arb)
    Xander Bogaerts
    Andrew Benintendi (3 arbs)
    Christian Vazquez
    Michael Chavis (pre-arb- could be traded or be handed 1B or 2B)
    Marcus Walden (pre-arb)
    Josh Taylor (pre-arb)
    Marco Hernandez (pre-arb)

    Rule 5 Candidates:

    Christopher Acosta
    Fabian Andrade
    Yoan Aybar
    Roldani Baldwin
    Eduard Bazardo
    Gary Calvo
    Marino Campana
    Pedro Castellanos
    Rusney Castillo
    CJ Chatham
    Jake Cosart
    Ricardo Cubillan
    Bobby Dalbec
    Enmanuel De Jesus
    Chad De La Guerra
    Jhonathan Diaz
    Jerry Downs
    Devon Fisher
    Matthew Gorst
    Kyle Hart
    Trenton Kemp
    Matt Kent
    Adam Lau
    Nick Lovullo
    Everlouis Lozada
    Tate Matheny
    Samuel Miranda
    Oddanier Mosqueda
    Josh Ockimey
    Angel Padron
    Yorvin Pantoja
    Keibert Petit
    Roniel Raudes
    Austin Rei
    Hildemaro Requena
    Jeremy Rivera
    Kleiber Rodriguez
    Jake Romanski
    Jagger Rusconi
    Alberto Schmidt
    Andrew Schwaab
    Nick Sciortino
    Kevin Steen
    Cole Sturgeon
    Kervin Suarez
    Luke Tendler
    Josh Tobias
    Marcus Wilson

    It might be a hard winter to debate, until we know what the spending choice will be. I'm leaning towards re-setting this winter, but going for one more ring in 2020 and re-setting after 2020 might be more likely. Then again, maybe we never re-set.

    Let's keep it real, and keep personal attacks on other threads.

    I'll do a budget analysis, soon.
    Sox 4 Ever

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    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

    I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

    BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

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    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    I may be in the minority but I still see JBJ as being a part of the team in 2020 on a one year contract. DD likes his defense, and JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.

    I also don't see any kind of a reset until 2021. IMO that may be the year when Mookie leaves and when that happens I see some of our higher priced players with options leaving too.

    BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)
    I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

    I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

    I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

    I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

    I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.


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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    JBJ is good insurance against Mookie's departure - regardless of how it happens.
    I like JBJ but in no way is he any type of insurance on Mookie’s departure. Mookie is an MVP. Bradley is a one time All Star with good defense and remarkably inconsistent offense who is set to make $10-12mill.

    Obviously we don’t know for certain if a reset is in the plans, but it makes more sense to do it after 2019 than 2020. Resetting after 2019 allows the Sox to spend HEAVILY on Betts at minimal penalty. Resetting after 2020 would mean Betts is definitely not coming back.

    BTW, you have JDM as being a Certain Keeper. Doesn't he have an option after this season? Or are you assuming he won't exercise it? (I expect him to stay even if he has an option but I wouldn't list him as Certain.)
    I expect JD to stay, but obviously the only man he’ll be talking to is Scott Boras. But JD makes $23mill in 2020 and then his salary drops to $19.8mill for 2021 and 2022. As he can also opt out after 2020, I expect he might opt out after 2020 and try to get a 3-4 year deal at a lower AAV...

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

    I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

    I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

    I put JD in Keepers, because we cannot really trade him. I assume he does not opt out this winter. A good bet.

    I should have said he had an option to make it more accurate, but I still see him as certainly being here next year.


    You are what your offensive stats say you are.....and JBJ is not a very good hitter despite positive streaks that surfaces from time to time. I agree that good defensive center fielders are not hard to find. $10M can go long ways in finding a back end starter or couple of relievers.

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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.
    Names?
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Names?
    The free agent market will have:
    Juan Lagares
    Cameron Maybin
    Billy Hamilton
    Jarrod Dyson

    Via trade, some possibilities include:
    Ender Inciarte
    Michael Taylor
    Travis Jankowski
    Kevin Pillar

    Inciarte is a great fit and Atlanta is ready to move on...

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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    E-Rod is certainly making a case to be part of the team's future.
    For 2020, it’s a safe bet we know who 4 of the starters are.

    The questions surround:
    the fifth starter
    1b/2b/Chavis
    bullpen
    center field

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    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    We can't forget that Chris Sale's status for 2020 is still up in the air. He's to be re-evaluated by Dr. Andrews in 5+ weeks.
    Very true.

    If it turns out Sale can’t go for 2020, the Sox might as unload Betts and maybe a couple others capable of getting a good return...

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    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I love JBJ, but I would not pay the likely $10M arb. If we can non tender him and then re-sign him for cheaper, fine. Even if we don't reset, $10M is too much.

    I think we can find a great defensive CF'er for a fraction of the cost.

    I'm not sure how he is "insurance" for Betts, since they both are FAs after next season. Maybe you meant, if we trade Betts this winter, but what kind of insurance would that be?

    I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
    Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

    IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
    So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

    OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

    If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

    Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
    -Vin Scully

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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    I feel the same way about signing Mookie that I do about the Sox chances of getting a WC berth this year. Possible, but highly unlikely.
    Fenway needs two outstanding outfielders in order to be successful and Beni doesn't fill the bill. So what we're talking about if we lose both of them is finding two outstanding fielders, one of CF and the other for RF, before the 2021 season. Good luck with that.

    IMO we'll do well to find one outfielder to come close to replacing Mookie's offense and being average defensively - which is a definite downgrade. Consequently we're going to need someone out there to cover some of the ground that Mookie had covered in the past few years.
    So-and-so and his two brothers and six cousins may be available but that doesn't mean they're going to be signed with the Red Sox. Is that a gamble we want to take....to have three outfielders with Benni's defensive skills patrolling the outfield in Fenway, even if it saves...say... $5MM?

    OTOH JBJ's status is guaranteed if the FO wants him. One in the hand being worth two in the bush DD may (should) find it more palatable to overpay for him until/unless the situation with Mookie is resolved.

    If they can sign Mookie in the off season then JBJ could be made available. If they can't sign Mookie they need to prepare for life without him, and having JBJ in CF is a good start.

    Everyone wants to rail on about JBJ but a GG CF'er who's batting .224/.728 and hitting 9th isn't the reason this team probably isn't going to the playoffs.
    I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

    If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

    It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

    If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...

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    Legend S5Dewey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I wouldn’t say the Sox chances of re-signing Mookie are highly unlikely. The chances of extending him before free agency? Sure.

    If theSix reset the limit in 2020, they will be able to spend again with minimal penalties. They already have an advantage over 3/4 of MLB in that they can afford the type of contract Mookie wants.

    It’s not really fair to say “Well, where do you think he’ll go?” But his options will be limited just because of his asking price. And Boston van position themselves to afford his demands better by resetting this coming year.

    If changes of him re-signing are truly highly unlikely, might as well trade him...
    So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

    Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

    The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.
    It's a mere moment in a man's life between the All-Star game and the Old Timer's game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by S5Dewey View Post
    So to capsulize this... and please correct me if you meant something else... you're an advocate of something short of a Fire Sale for 2020, & holding onto Mookie in hopes that he can be resigned in 2021?

    Moon could probably answer this question but I have to wonder exactly how many (contributing) players we'd have to unload to get a reset large enough to allow us to sign Mookie given that most of our money is tied up in non-contributing pitchers. I'm looking at YOU, David Price & Chris Sale.

    The good news in that plan.. if this can be considered good news... is that we still don't know the situation with Sale. TJ surgery still hasn't been ruled out for him. If he has to miss 2020 to come back in 2021 the timing may be right for his comeback - but the salary is still there.
    From previous conversations with moon, the Sox could get under the limit and keep Mookie, which surprised me given we really don’t know what Mookie’s salary is.

    And I wouldn’t consider non-tendering JBJ a fire sale or even close to it. He’s the the ninth spot hitter and isn’t really all that involved defensively. He’s also not worth $10-12mill, and can and probably will be replaced for less. The Sox might even bring Bradley back for less, a move you seem to doubt happens but teams re-sign their own non-tenders all the time. (The Sox did it last year with Sandy Leon.)

    I also think the Sox should consider trading Barnes and Dalbec, but that also doesn’t make it a fire sale. Especially if they target major leaguers in return...

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