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Thread: A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

  1. #2491
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Joe Mauer posted fWAR valued at $96.7 million in the first four years of his eight-year, $178 million contract while David Price has posted fWAR valued at $93 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

    One player came closer than the other to meeting his contract in the first four years.
    7 of the 11 deals over $25M/yr x 7 are able to be judged.

    5 Good: Kershaw, Scherzer, ARod1, Verlander, ARod2

    2 Bad: Miggy & Price

    Of the 12 deals between $20-25M that can be judged, now, I find...

    3 Good
    3 S-So
    6 Bad

    I'd say the idea that the vast majority of mega and mega long deals go bad is unfounded.
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  2. #2492
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, I meant to put price in red. (Fixed it.)

    One could argue Price is "pending."
    One could also argue Price deserves extra credit for his 2018 postseason performance. I certainly would.
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  3. #2493
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    7 of the 11 deals over $25M/yr x 7 are able to be judged.

    5 Good: Kershaw, Scherzer, ARod1, Verlander, ARod2

    2 Bad: Miggy & Price

    Of the 12 deals between $20-25M that can be judged, now, I find...

    3 Good
    3 S-So
    6 Bad

    I'd say the idea that the vast majority of mega and mega long deals go bad is unfounded.
    Interesting.
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  4. #2494
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    One could also argue Price deserves extra credit for his 2018 postseason performance. I certainly would.
    Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?

  5. #2495
    Deity Slasher9's Avatar
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    for the mega deals:
    both of Arod's should be red.
    machado should be red
    harper will be red
    i could argue that kershaw should be red

    for the other deals:
    stanton will be red
    cano should be red
    texiera should be red
    agon should be red
    kemp should be dead red
    other names i have posted under: none

  6. #2496
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?
    Yes. But of course credited for his other contributions-defense and baserunning.

    I'm a firm believer that postseason numbers should be factored into player valuations SOMEHOW.
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  7. #2497
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Should Mookie Betts be penalized contractually for the .210/.300/.323/.623 line he posted over 14 games in the same postseason?
    He should be penalized the same amount as Machado was penalized for his .213/.268/.382/.650 in his 23 post-season games....

  8. #2498
    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    for the mega deals:
    both of Arod's should be red.
    machado should be red
    harper will be red
    i could argue that kershaw should be red

    for the other deals:
    stanton will be red
    cano should be red
    texiera should be red
    agon should be red
    kemp should be dead red
    Despite posting only 0.8 fWAR, valued at $7.9 million, this year, Robinson Cano has posted 21.4 fWAR, valued at $169.8 million, six years into his 10-year, $240 million contract.

    The Cano contract appears better than the contract for David Price, who has posted 10.6 fWAR valued at $85 million in the first four years of his seven-year, $217 million contract.

  9. #2499
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  10. #2500
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.
    Maybe they want the entire coaching staff to be former members of the 2013 Red Sox. Maybe Shane Victorino will be the hitting coach, Ryan Dempster as the pitching coach, and Mike Carp will be the bench coach...

  11. #2501
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Cubs have hired David Ross as manager and now they are hiring Napoli to join their coaching staff. Does either one have any coaching or managerial experience? It just goes to prove that the people who fill these roles are very fungible and don't need much if any experience.

    Before we accept them as fungible, maybe we should see if it works, first...

  12. #2502
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Before we accept them as fungible, maybe we should see if it works, first...
    If it doesn't work, we may have to criticize the icon Theo.
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Chaim, you are in the big leagues now. Drawing 10,000 fans a game is not going to cut it, and people don’t buy tickets to Fenway to talk about the Farm

    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    Unlike hot streaks and clutch, the “Cliff” is a myth. It can’t be defined, and it’s future existence cannot be proved.

  13. #2503
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slasher9 View Post
    for the mega deals:
    both of Arod's should be red.
    machado should be red
    harper will be red
    i could argue that kershaw should be red

    for the other deals:
    stanton will be red
    cano should be red
    texiera should be red
    agon should be red
    kemp should be dead red
    I can see AGon, Tex and Kemp being red, but Cano's is so-so and/or pending. Stanton has 8 years left. You may think he will be red, but he has to be, at worst, pending.

    Machado & Harper have to be pending since they just finished year 1.

    ARod's deals were NOT red. No way. (ARod3, yes, but that wasn't a 7+ year deal.)

    I'll recatagorize things with those 3 changed to red.

    11 Deals over $25M/yr x 7+ yrs
    5 Good
    4 Pending
    2 Bad

    17 Deals between $20M/yr to $25M/yr x 7+ yrs
    4 Good
    4 Pending
    9 Bad

    Seems like the mega deals are better than the semi-mega deals.

    Combined (all $20+M)
    9 Good
    8 Pending
    11 Bad

    Even these numbers do not indicate a horrible record for big signings. I'm thinking Altuve's and Votto's deals will end up being good, and if we assume all the other 6 pending end up being bad (Trout, Arenado, Machado, Harper, Stanton & Cano), the record would be:

    11 Good

    17 Bad

    That's about 60% bad & 40% good, which does not appear to be as bad as many make it out to be.

    If I had to vote on those 6 and their projections, I'd put Trout, Arenado and Cano as so-so, but maybe Cano could be bad, my totals would be
    11 Good
    3 so-so
    14 bad

    That's only 50% bad.

    Last edited by moonslav59; 11-14-2019 at 08:20 PM.
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  14. #2504
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yes. But of course credited for his other contributions-defense and baserunning.

    I'm a firm believer that postseason numbers should be factored into player valuations SOMEHOW.
    Allow me to embellish -- with what I saw in the '18 postseason (along with some stats): First, Mookie did rip some balls deep or right at people or that were caught (like Reddick's bases-loaded dive). Let's just stay with the Houston series, the best and most intense of October: Betts led off four of the five games with three hits and a hit by pitch, and scored the first run of the game in three straight wins. Nothing sets the tone more for a team than scoring the first run in a playoff game, and Betts did that best. He also singled, stole second and scored the first run of the first game of the World Series; LA knew it was in for it.

    Being disruptive on the bases is another huge asset, like later when he walked, ran around the bases and scored on a ground-out. Then there's defense -- and not just the leap on the Altuve interference call, robbing Bregman the next day, and the best throw of the postseason to nail Kemp, but all the Gold Glove sprints that made tough flies and pops look routine.

  15. #2505
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Post season sample sizes are usually too small to weigh heavily on a player's value. When they do become significant after many post seasons, one should also factor in how spread out most of the sample sizes are.

    Yes, they should count, but I feel only proportionate to the sample size.
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