According to one website, Gavin Lux has a surplus value of $85.1 million, Alex Verdugo $55.8 million and Dustin May $63.9 million:Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Mookie Betts has a surplus value of $51.4 million and David Price a value of a negative $69.9 million.
Not getting Lux or Verdugo or May, let alone all threes.
I see something more along the lines of Drew Waters and Touki Toussaint...
[QUOTE=notin;1291075I see something more along the lines of Drew Waters and Touki Toussaint...[/QUOTE]
You just want those crazy names...
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
I want Ian Anderson, just so we can pair him with Brian Johnson and have some serious rock and roll on that pitching staff..
Thanks, it wasn't so much a trade proposal as an example of the kind of package the Sox should ask for for someone entering his prime on a Hall of Fame trajectory. In other words, don't settle for Fred Lynn for the twilight of Joe Rudi and Frank Tanana right after he blew out his arm.
Player value considerations include actual WAR and salary estimates (ie. the cost of Betts, the savings on pre-arb guys), but projected WAR for prospects is more dubious. And only the teams know how much they value a player's marketability... my 8-year-old owns six different Mookie shirts. In that regard, Price is definitely a negative; it doesn't matter if he has friends in the workplace if he devalues the company product in a waning industry via media spats, getting shelled by the Yankees and taking five minutes to throw every pitch.
Thread speculation here and elsewhere of Bloom getting hired as maybe the guy assigned to trade Betts is stressful. To help both the Red Sox and Boston fans ease their concerns about the aging effects of "undersized" and "speed" players, here are total b-WARs and yearly averages for the prime 27-32 ages of recent Hall of Famers listed under 5 foot, 10 inches in height: Tim Raines 26.4, 4.4; Pudge Rodriguez 28.3, 4.7; Kirby Puckett 31.1, 5.2; Joe Morgan 53.4, 8.9. Also included is Dustin Pedroia 31.7, 5.3; Irod and Pedey weren't feared base-stealers (though Pedroia actually swiped more bags than Puckett), but both made their livings with quick feet.
There is absolutely no reason to expect Mookie Betts' overall value not to average between 4.5 and 5 WAR for the next six seasons, which would give him a career total commensurate with the average outfielder enshrined in Cooperstown. Open the vaults and pay this future Hall of Famer through his prime!
Last edited by 5GoldGloves:OF,75; 10-25-2019 at 12:04 PM. Reason: error
So, maybe we package Betts and Price in a trade to the Dodgers for the next Ruby de la Rosa.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Here is the deal with Mookie Betts. Mookie is 27 yrs old and well within his prime. Nobody is saying he won't be great for his last year under contract with the sox. He also is adamant about seeing how much he is worth on the open market. So you aren't going to sign him beyond 2020 before he hits the market. So that point is entirely moot. You are talking about giving a contract to a guy who will be 28 yrs old on opening day of the first season of his new contract. The consensus on here is that most of you guys are willing to back up the Brinks truck and pay Mookie the most money. That will likely be in the 10 year rage at a lower AAV or at a much higher rate for 8 years. Let's look at your comps a little more closely for a 10 year deal.
Tim Raines
year 28 season had a 6.7 WAR
year 29 season had a 3.3 WAR
year 30 season had a 3.9WAR
year 31 season had a 2.4 WAR
year 32 season had a 2.7 WAR
year 33 season had a 5.5 WAR
year 34 season had a 3.3 WAR
The following 3 seasons combined for 4WAR total. That is 31.8WAR over 10 seasons. Only 2 seasons was he All Star caliber (WAR 5+), the rest he was simply good and the final 3 he was replacement level. Would you be willing to spend 10 seasons having him be good for 5, All-Star level for 2 and replacement level for 3? Let's look at others
Pudge Rodriguez
year 28 season had a 6.8 WAR
year 29 season had a 4.7 WAR
year 30 season had a 5.0 WAR
year 31 season had a 3.3 WAR
year 32 season had a 4.5 WAR
year 33 season had a 4.7 WAR
year 34 season had a 3.2 WAR
The next 3 seasons, he had 5.2WAR total. Pudge held up well to the test of time. Pudge also played during the juiced ball era and was rumored to be doing roids. He also played a position where being shorter may have given him advantages as he was in a squat all day long. He is not as good a comparison as Raines was as Raines was also an OFer relying on speed
Kirby Puckett
7.1 in his first year. 4.7, 2.4, 3.8, 5.9. Half his contract was good. Defense fell off a cliff thereafter than his career ended with glaucoma. 6.4 total his last 3 years and then retirement.
Morgan was a much different era. Pedroia is the cautionary tale. The injury bug creeping in is where you lose the value. What you expect from a 10 yr deal with Betts is 28-32 he is prime, maybe has one bad season mixed in due to injury or an off year. 32-34 he can be a good player, 3 WAR ish as the speed fades. 35 he is a replacement level defender who can slug.
Hal sucks
The question is, are there teams out there with cash to burn and a thin farm who would like to get Betts for a year and are willing to eat a bad contract for a player that still has a little value in Price? The Dodgers wont be that team.
Hal sucks
No, they won't. My post was in jest.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I appreciate the breakdown of the comps but in no way are they predictive of a breakdown in Betts. Puckett's eyes would be bad luck for a player of any height. Raines may have lost an edge getting hooked on recreational drugs. People may have been smaller in Morgan's century, but he was known as Little Joe and also hands-down the best MLBer for an entire decade. To go back even further, Willie Mays -- listed as 5'10, 170 -- posted 58.5 WAR from age 33 through the end of his career. I'm not saying Betts is another Mays, but some professional writers have made those 5-tool, boyish-enthusiasm comps; when I first saw Mookie's swing, with his inhumanly quick wrists, I actually thought Aaron... and The Hammer was another player without huge muscles who starred a long, long time. Mays and Aaron were small compared to contemporaries like Frank Robinson, McCovey, Stargell, etc. Why can't Betts be another Mays or Aaron, not in pure slugging, but longevity? Granted, Trout is built like a linebacker and you'd think he'd be more durable, but he's been hurt the past two years, as have Stanton and Judge. Maybe body types aren't as important in projections as a player's make-up and pedigree. Maybe wiry sinew is more supple than bulk. Before he was a star, the Sox held a spring training athletic competition where they split one side of the roster vs. another -- I remember reading all these guys with rings (Papi, Pedey, etc.) wanted to be on Betts' team, because he was such a better all-around athlete. I think every team accepts the fact that when they sign someone long term that they're actually paying for the first two-thirds of a contract (hopefully). Boston can't possibly replace Betts, and the only thing they know for sure is that they have him now. Generational talent doesn't grow on a farm (team, ha), and the Sox got lucky with a 5th round pick. If they trade him, someone else will get lucky.
Bwaaaaahaaaaa lol sooooooo clutch .
I've come to a conclusion...the idea of trading Mookie makes me nauseous.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
Mays was built like a NFL Halfback, that dude was one of the strongest ballplayers ever. 170lbs, looked like 200lbs, that's what muscle does, I saw him in Shea at batting practice at the Cage, (they used to let you into Park 3 hours before game time to watch that), Mookie is not even close to that built.
As Mays got older he got slower too. Mays was a pure wrist hitter too. Very powerful wrists.
Hit one of the longest HR's I ever seen at Shea, off Seaver.
Last edited by OH FOY!; 11-07-2019 at 08:34 AM.
Mookie has super quick twitch muscles and, I assume, very strong wrists and forearms. That's where he gets his power from.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
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