A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

Here's the link to Part I

https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...at-2019-Part-I

We're half way through the season and on our way to London for 2 big games with the Yanks sandwiched between 3 "days off" (travel days).

No doubt, the first half has been a disappointment. We started very slow, showed signs of snapping out of it here and there, but then seemed to stumble back into out struggles again and again.

Blame has been thrown around by us posters, and certainly much of the criticism is well-warranted, but we can probably all agree that no one area is our clear weakness. One can even argue that our weaknesses are not really a weakness, since they may still be at or above league average or mean.

Here is where each position ranks among the 15 AL teams at the halfway point:

WAR (fangraphs)

Area:
3rd Positional Players 14.1 (5th in runs scored/ 4th in OPS)
3rd Pitching 11.2 (6th in ERA-/ 7th in WHIP/ 1st in K/9)
5th Defense (3rd in UZR/150/ 6th in DRS)

Position:
2nd SS 3.7 (1st OPS)
3rd SP 8.2 (7th ERA-/ 7th WHIP)
3rd C 2.0(8th OPS)
4th 3B 2.8 (1st OPS)
5th RP 3.0 (3rd ERA-/ 5th WHIP)
7th RF 2.4 (2nd OPS)
7th LF 1.3 (7th OPS)
9th DH 0.2 (13th OPS)
10th CF 0.5 (8th OPS)
11th 1B 0.1 (10th OPS)
12th 2B 0.4 (8th OPS)

While RF and DH looklike major disappointments and declines from 2018, 3B and C have seen great improvement.

Here is my own individual report card based on what I perceived their 2019 expectations were- not on just the numbers.

A+ Bogaerts, Devers
A Vazquez, Price, Walden (due to very low expectations)
A- Chavis, Holt, Workman
B+ Hembree (until injury)
B Taylor
B- Porcello
C+ JBJ, Leon
C Brewer, Smith, Weber
C- Beni, JD, Moreland (injury)
D+ ERod, Velazquez, Eovaldi (injury)
D Betts, Sale, Barnes
D- Brasier, Johnson, Thornburg (an F but my expectations were low)
F Pearce, Nunez

Going forward, I think we need to make 2 trades. We need 2 pitchers. I'd like to see us get a closer and a decent set-up man, but a starter and closer would be fine with me. I think our offense and defense will have to work through their issues and improve. I think we win the home field for the WC game and have a very good shot at winning it all. We won't be the favorites going into the playoffs, but we've won it all before without being faves.

C- Cora
D+ DD

Let's keep this thread about the Sox. Let's keep it real. Let's keep it non-personal.

Go Sox!

[vegasbob]

Thank you for getting this up, Moon. A clean start to a more productive second half .

The Yankee games in London will count like all others , but don't miss the fact that the very strong Dodgers will be at Fenway for 3 starting July 12 . Cleaned their clocks in the 2018 WS, but they will be looking to give some minor payback. BTW Joe Kelly is back on some sort of upswing since Rick Honeycutt is holding him to just 2 pitches, rather than the 5 he was trying to throw as he blew up earlier. 2 seam FB and change up is all he is allowed to throw.

[vegasbob]

Ty Buttrey and Noe Ramirez are also key BP pieces for the Angels , who just joined the second WC race by getting 1 game over .500 . Former Sox all over the MLB.

[dgalehouse]

Ty Buttrey and Noe Ramirez are also key BP pieces for the Angels , who just joined the second WC race by getting 1 game over .500 . Former Sox all over the MLB.

Probably most teams have the same thing . Ex players on other teams and doing well .

[moonslav59]

We could also talk about Joe Kelly.

[notin]

Ty Buttrey and Noe Ramirez are also key BP pieces for the Angels , who just joined the second WC race by getting 1 game over .500 . Former Sox all over the MLB.

Buttrey has been great but Ramirez has been fifth man doing mop up work...

[moonslav59]

2018 WAR vs 2019 WAR x 2

2018 Batter 2019

10.4 Betts 4.6 (-5.8)
5.9 JDM 3.2 (-2.7)
4.9 Bogey 7.4 (+2.5)
4.4 Beni 3.2 (-1.2)
2.8 JBJ 1.0 (-1.8)
1.4 Holt 1.0 (-0.4)
1.2 Pearce -1.8 (-3.0)
1.0 Devers 5.6 (+4.6)
0.6 Moreland 0.8 (+0.2)
0.2 Leon 0.0 (-0.2)
0.1 Vazquez 4.0 (+3.0)
-0.3 Nunez -1.4 (-1.1)

By net gain/loss:
+4.6 Devers
+3.0 Vaz
+2.5 Bogey
+0.2 Moreland

-0.2 Leon
-0.4 Holt
-1.1 Nunez
-1.2 Beni
-1.8 JBJ
-2.7 JDM
-3.0 Pearce
-5.8 Betts

2018 Pitcher 2019

6.2 Sale 6.0 Sale (-0.2)
2.4 Price 4.4 (+2.0)
2.4 Porcello 3.0 (+0.6)
2.1 ERod 2.4 ERod (+0.3)
1.5 Eovaldi -0.6 (-2.1)
1.2 Barnes 1.8 (+0.6)
0.7 Brasier 0.4 (-0.3)
0.4 Velazquez 0.6 (+0.2)
0.3 Johnson 0.0 (-0.3)
0.2 Walden 1.6 (+1.4)
0.2 Poyner -0.2 (-0.4)
0.2 Wright 0.0 (-0.2)
0.1 Hembree 0.6 (+0.5)
0.0 Workman 1.6 (+1.6)
-0.3 Thornburg -0.2 (-0.1)

Net gains/losses
+2.0 Price
+1.6 Workman
+1.4 Walden
+0.6 Porcello
+0.6 Barnes
+0.5 Hembree
+0.3 ERod
+0.1 Thornburg

-0.2 Sale
-0.2 Wright
-0.3 Brasier
-0.3 Johnson
-0.4 Poyner
-2.1 Eovaldi

1.3 Kimbrel/Taylor +0.8
0.6 Kelly/ Brewer +0.6
0.1 CSmith/DHern +0.2
-0.4 Pom/ Weber +0.2
-0.4 Scott/ Lakins 0.0
-0.1 Beeks/ Shawaryn -0.2
-0.2 Cuevas/ J Smith -0.2
-0.2 Haley/ E Ramirez -0.2

[Oscars]

Great work Moon.
The biggest culprit for me is DD, as he put Cora in s terrible position with the late innings options in the bullpen.
Cora takes some significant blame for not emulating Bill B and his turn the page on last season mantra. Cora came into the season with a “everything’s gonna be alright” attitude, which set the tone for the horrible start to the season as they were underdone and lacking in urgency.
The players who should take most of the blame are Sale, Betts and JDM.
Sale started in hopeless fashion, and has interspersed great starts with 4-5 run crap starts.
Betts has been a shadow of himself, and his constant trick of taking the first pitch strike of an AB is mystifying to me.
JDM has annoyed the shit out of me, as he is getting himself out so much by swinging at balls. If he improved his discipline his numbers would be a lot better.
That said, the Sox have a lot of improvement in them, and with the addition of a couple of arms should get a wild card spot.
Once they are in the playoffs they can give anyone a good battle.

[oldtimer]

2018 WAR vs 2019 WAR x 2

2018 Player 2019
10.4 Betts 4.6 (-5.8)
5.9 JDM 3.2 (-2.7)
4.9 Bogey 7.4 (+2.5)
4.4 Beni 3.2 (-1.2)
2.8 JBJ 1.0 (-1.8)
1.4 Holt 1.0 (-0.4)
1.2 Pearce -1.8 (-3.0)
1.0 Devers 5.6 (+4.6)
0.6 Moreland 0.8 (+0.2)
0.2 Leon 0.0 (-0.2)
0.1 Vazquez 4.0 (+3.0)
-0.3 Nunez -1.4 (-1.1)

By net gain/loss:
+4.6 Devers
+3.0 Vaz
+2.5 Bogey
+0.2 Moreland

-0.2 Leon
-0.4 Holt
-1.1 Nunez
-1.2 Beni
-1.8 JBJ
-2.7 JDM
-3.0 Pearce
-5.8 Betts

Good job of kicking off the second half by pointing out where we have struggled and where we have improved. It appears the only moves likely to be made are for 1 or two relief pitchers. Maybe a starter could drop to us with a reliever and that would be okay. Knowing when Eovaldi will make it back would certaintly affect who we go for. (I still wonder why they waited until April to operate on the loose bodies in his arm).

i usually comment that the facts are interesting, but what conclusions can be drawn from the first half results. I'll make a try.


1. Since we probably can't or won't bring in new position players, we will have to use who we have to get the best results possible. Hopefully we will get Moreland back to help us.

2. We should continue to monitor our position player performances during the second half to determine a course of action in the off season.

3. Depending on how we fare and whether we make a wild card slot (I don't kid myself to believe we will catch the Yankees), I would bring up our best young position players for a looksee. If we fall out of it I would give them enough PT to see if they can help us either in 2020 or as trade bait.

4. My current thinking on each player:


a. Betts is playing well below expectations even given most expected some decline. Would try to keep him but not for the $300 Mil long term previously in the cards.
b. JDM is still valuable to the team but if he exercises an option to walk, I would think his value going forward is declining
c. Beni is doing well but not great. I would try to keep him and look for improvement. Otherwise, don't trade him.
d. JBJ is a tough call. Do we want to keep him and pay big money or trade him for a alternative player. A lot will depend on how he goes during the second half.
e. Holt is a bit fragile and is best kept in a utility role. He has proven to be worth keeping but not as a regular position player.
f. Dever has become an emerging star and must be part of the team going forward. Probably remaining at 3rd but flexible.
g. Moreland has been valuable when healthy but he appears to be quite fragile. I expect him to be replaced in 2020.
h. Pearce is getting older and I expect him gone in 2020. Fragile and his skills appear to be dropping
i. leon is an interesting case. He doesn't hit but is okay as a backup catcher. You have to ask what we could get as a backup that would be better. I'd consider looking but don't see it as a priority.
j. Vazquez is one of the better catchers in the league and should not be traded under any circumstances.
k. Nunez is an erratic fielding utility guy who can hit and help the team at times. I wouldn't consider him as a guy we will need on the 2020 team
l. Chavis is a rookie and wasn't on the list because he didn't have stats last year. Like a lot of rookies he has problems but appears to be holding his own and may well help us in 2020 with an improving war number. Low cost players that can do what he is doing are needed on every team and I would want him back in 2020.

Clearly we will need to solve our 2nd base issue next year and should have this year but for another questionable contract for Pedroia. Most of us believe Pedroia is gone for good. Does Hernandez or Chatham replace him or do we look for a FA to fill that void?

We should have some money available to shore us the starting pitching and BP in 2020. As far as managment of the team is concerned, you gave fairly low marks. I tend to agree that Cora's preparation for the season and constantly weakening the lineup to rest players hasn't worked very well this year. DD has been contrained financially this year. He helped bring in the WS ring in 2018 but some of his moves have depleted our minors. I won't jump on him for this year but if our weakness persists, he has to share the blame as well as the credit for last year.

Would like Moon's take on the pitching staff as well.

[vegasbob]

Nice write up Moon and oldtimer. I believe that we saw the retention of most of the 2018 team for two reasons, in DD , Cora and ownerships eyes: No chance they wouldn't win 100 and be challenging the Yankees for ALEast. The BP gamble was dangerous and is the cause of much consternation but the stats say they are not awful in comparison to the league, forget the Yankees. The untimely hitting (LOB/RISP performance) is the equivalent of the BP's blown saves/losses. Second, the WS allowed a quiet reset of sorts for 2020 . There will be 6 to 8 changes in the roster for 2020., even if no tradeline moves are made.

These may include a JDM opt out (doubt it, if he is in fact hurting), Nunez & Pearce(past their "Best by" dates; Thornburg ( C. Smith already gone); Brian Johnson or H. Velazquez (too limited to keep both); Weber ; Pedroia (no longer a factor); Josh Smith (overage/underskilled) along other Pawsox perennials (Sam Travis, Brentz, TzuWei Lin, Poyner ). The big deal question marks include Sandy Leon ( probably still Sale's caddy), JBJr (costing $9million?); Benintendi (trade bait?); Moreland (50% season active ); Holt (trade bait ?).

Then Dombrowski's own contract comes up in the summer or end of 2020 (based on August 2015 signing date). you better believe the bean will be on him to be much better positioned budget wise and talent wise for 2020.

[OH FOY!]

Sox will have to go 37-4 at home in the second half of season to match last years total, at home.
Sox have won just 3 series at home so far this season, and 2 have come against teams with a losing record. We have not won a series at home so far this season against a Division rival.

[moonslav59]

Here's another way to look at the first half or 2019:

(Fangraphs)
First 41 games: (22-19)
6th ranked in offense (4th Runs, OPS & wRC+)
7th ranked Pitching (4.3 fWAR) 7th ERA-/ 6th WHIP
- 8th SP'er (2.9 fWAR)8th ERA-/ 9th WHIP
-T7th RP'er (1.4 WAR) 5th ERA-/ 4th WHIP

Last 41 games: (22-19)
1st ranked in pitching (3rd ERA-/6th WHIP)
-2nd SP (T6th ERA-/6th WHIP)
-3rd RP (T3 ERA-/9th WHIP)
4th ranked in offense (4th Runs, 3rd OPS & wRC+)

Whole season (fangraphs will not break down by dates):
3rd ranked in defense (3rd UZR/150 & 7th in DRS)

[bkzwhitestrican]

Here's another way to look at the first half or 2019:

(Fangraphs)
First 41 games: (22-19)
6th ranked in offense (4th Runs, OPS & wRC+)
7th ranked Pitching (4.3 fWAR) 7th ERA-/ 6th WHIP
- 8th SP'er (2.9 fWAR)8th ERA-/ 9th WHIP
-T7th RP'er (1.4 WAR) 5th ERA-/ 4th WHIP

Last 41 games: (22-19)
1st ranked in pitching (3rd ERA-/6th WHIP)
-2nd SP (T6th ERA-/6th WHIP)
-3rd RP (T3 ERA-/9th WHIP)
4th ranked in offense (4th Runs, 3rd OPS & wRC+)

Whole season (fangraphs will not break down by dates):
3rd ranked in defense (3rd UZR/150 & 7th in DRS)

How did Boston have the #4 offense and #1 pitching during the last 41 games yet they only finished 3 games over .500? I enjoy stats as much as everyone else but in this case they're misleading.

[moonslav59]

Alternative Pitcher Scoring System:

+ 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings

+1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings.

0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50.

-1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00.

-2 for any game over 6.01

1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2)
2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)
3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2)
4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2)
5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2)
6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)
7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2)
8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2)
9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2)
10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1)
Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2)
12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2)
13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2)
14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2)
15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2)
16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)
17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2)
18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)
19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2)
20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2)
Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0

21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2)
22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2)
23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2)
24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2)
25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2)
26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2)
27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2)
28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)
29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2)
30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2)
Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2)
32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2)
33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)
34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)
35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2)
36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2)
37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0)
38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)
39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)
40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0)
Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)
42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2)
43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)
44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)
45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2)
46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2)
47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)
48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)
49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0)
50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)
Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9

51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)
52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1)
53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2)
54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2)
55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2)
56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2)
57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2)
58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2)
59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2)
60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1)
Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6

61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**)
62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1)
63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1)
64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2)
65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)
66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0)
67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2)
68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2)
69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2)
70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**)
Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3

71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0)
72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)
73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1)
74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)
75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2)
76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2)
77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2)
78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**)
79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1)
80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2)
Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11

81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)
82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2)

The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 79 games:

SP +20

RP +46

[moonslav59]

How did Boston have the #4 offense and #1 pitching during the last 41 games yet they only finished 3 games over .500? I enjoy stats as much as everyone else but in this case they're misleading.

I think it is very telling. It shows we deserved to win more games, but had untimely hitting and pitching meltdowns.

For example, we outscored the Astros but lost the series 2 out of 3.