The JD opt out

[notin]

mookie gets replaced by....mookie after next season.

In a truly bizarre scenario, if the Sox are without some combo of Bradley, Mookie and JD Martinez, it is entirely possible Rusney Castillo makes the MLB club next season. The Sox are paying him anyway, and the only real savings is on the luxury tax. If they are under the limit and there is no tax to pay, there is that much less of a reason to keep him in Pawtucket Purgatory. (I know it will be Worcester Purgatory next year, but I like alliteration.)

Of course, there is always the very real chance that he just flat out sucks, which would be a very real reason to keep him in AAA...

[moonslav59]

It starts with Henry wanting payroll to be below $208M when we had a payroll for luxury tax purposes of $240M or so.

Both Xander's and Sale's AAV will go up for 2020. If we extend Devers, our luxury tax payroll will also go up.

Hell, I want both to be back and sign some more free agent pitching. I doubt if I'll get my wish.

$208M is NOT a rumor.

No, but it's not set in stone.

I think we start the season with the idea of staying under, but if we look like we have a chance, we may trade for salary in July and reset the next winter.

[notin]

Maybe the injury label is gone because he DH'd so much.

I would think so. When you do less, you reduce the chances of injury. Unless all that time on the bench between at bats gave him hemorrhoids...

[Bellhorn04]

I'd rather see Eovaldi gone. But the only way that happens is if someone equally cumbersome comes back. The Sox won the wrong bidding war there...

What was the other bidding war you're referring to?

[jacksonianmarch]

The only win for the Sox is a lower payroll. The team will be worse.

As for JD's payday, remember he only got 5 years at AAV 22 million when he was 2 years younger. Now he's 32.

He also isn't due $22 mil a year anymore. He got $23.75 mil for the first two seasons, so that's $47.5 mil. He gets a $2.5 mil kicker if he opts out. So he made $50 mil over 2 seasons. His final 3 seasons are in effect being paid out as a $60 mil total. If he stays, the $2.5 mil kicker is baked into his contract, but in effect, he has $50 mil in hand and an extra $60 mil over 3 years he can get. My bet is he thinks he can get another contract worth more than $60 mil. I bet he is right, but likely not at the AAV he is going for. I said before and I think I will say again. JD can probably get a 4 yr $75 mil deal from someone. Take that, add in the $50 mil he got from the sox and he is looking at 6 yrs and $125 mil. Not bad for a one way player

[notin]

It starts with Henry wanting payroll to be below $208M when we had a payroll for luxury tax purposes of $240M or so.

Both Xander's and Sale's AAV will go up for 2020. If we extend Devers, our luxury tax payroll will also go up.

Hell, I want both JD and Betts to be back and sign some more free agent pitchers. I doubt if I'll get my wish.

$208M is NOT a rumor.

Per sportrac, the Sox should have $56mill to spend before reching the $208mill limit. Out of that $56mill, they have to pay the arbitration raises for whoever they offer them to from Betts, Bradley, ERod, Benintendi, Barnes, Hembree, Wright, and Workman.

If JD opts out, that number climbs to $78million. If Betts, Erod, Benintendi, Barnes and Workman all get offered arb and come in around $50mill, they still have some room to spend and stay under. Just not much room if JD stays put...

[notin]

He also isn't due $22 mil a year anymore. He got $23.75 mil for the first two seasons, so that's $47.5 mil. He gets a $2.5 mil kicker if he opts out. So he made $50 mil over 2 seasons. His final 3 seasons are in effect being paid out as a $60 mil total. If he stays, the $2.5 mil kicker is baked into his contract, but in effect, he has $50 mil in hand and an extra $60 mil over 3 years he can get. My bet is he thinks he can get another contract worth more than $60 mil. I bet he is right, but likely not at the AAV he is going for. I said before and I think I will say again. JD can probably get a 4 yr $75 mil deal from someone. Take that, add in the $50 mil he got from the sox and he is looking at 6 yrs and $125 mil. Not bad for a one way player

Of course, there is also the scenario that he opts out and signs a longer, lower AAV contract back with Boston. Who else would need a DH more? If he opts out and signs, say, a 4 year $75mill contract with the Red Sox, the Sox gain about $3.25mill more in AAV towards to luxury tax.

And that is assuming the Sox have to go that high. A 4 year $65mill contract gives JD more guaranteed money than he currently has coming, and lowers to Sox AAV calculation by $5.75mill. It's a win-win for a player who struggled with expected offers last time he was a free agent..

[Bellhorn04]

Of course, there is also the scenario that he opts out and signs a longer, lower AAV contract back with Boston. Who else would need a DH more? If he opts out and signs, say, a 4 year $75mill contract with the Red Sox, the Sox gain about $3.25mill more in AAV towards to luxury tax...

If he does opt out, don't forget, they also get whacked for a bigger tax bill for 2018.

[Slasher9]

If they can keep him and achieve their financial goal, whatever it is, they should.

If JD opts out or gets traded, it is that much easier to keep Mookie and reset...

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

[jacksonianmarch]

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

This isn't a quick turnaround. A rebuild entails using your farm and other prospects. Your farm is scorched earth, salted and dead. You need to draft well, sign well, develop well, and trade well. If you don't commit to a rebuild, then the process will be far longer. I think Henry is struggling with the idea of cutting payroll and rebuilding or giving it one last college try with this team

[Slasher9]

This isn't a quick turnaround.

yes. it is a quick turnaround. 1 year. to me that is "quick".

[jacksonianmarch]

yes. it is a quick turnaround. 1 year. to me that is "quick".

Forever the optimist. With the salaries on the books and the fact that only one long term deal looks positive (Xander) and there are no reinforcements in the wings, how in god's name can you think this is a rapid turnaround?

[notin]

What was the other bidding war you're referring to?

I wasn't but if you want another bidding war they won that they would have been better of losing, fill in the blanks: R_sney Ca_ti_lo...

[notin]

i'm willing to throw 2020 away for the Reset + the prospects he would get us. even if we can trade JD as well. i'll take any prospects i can get right now to restock and prepare for a quick turnaround in 2021.

I'm not. Rebuilding sucks are rarely works...

[TylerD]

He gave us an incredible year in 2018, and no matter how good a player is.... if he doesn’t want to play for us anymore then I don’t want him. Simple as that. If he wants to go to another team then let him, Offense wasn’t The problem. If we didn’t have him this year we still would have been fine on the offensive side of things. Pitching is what the problem is.

If we lose a guy like E Rod then I will panic.