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Thread: 2020 Yankee Off-Season Thread

  1. #196
    All-Star Carpin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    So, Cole at $245M/7 at age 29.

    Price at $217M/7 at age 30.

    Let's compare the two at their time of signing:

    Price: coming off a league leading ERA of 2.45 (164 ERA+) in 220 IP.
    2yrs prior: 33-17 2.88 (135 ERA+) in 469 IP (most in MLB) 1.08 WHIP
    3 yrs prior: 43-25 3.01 (129 ERA+) in 655 IP and 1.08 WHIP
    4 yrs: 63-30 2.90 (133) in 866 IP (1.09)
    5 yrs: 75-43 3.02 (127) in 1091 IP (1.10)
    6 yrs: 94-49 2.97 (130) in 1299 IP (1.11)

    Cole: coming off a league leading ERA 2.50 (185 ERA+) in 212 IP (0.90 WHIP)
    2 yrs: 35-10 2.68 (164) in 413 IP (0.96)
    3 yrs: 47-22 3.20 (136) in 616 IP (1.06)
    4 yrs: 54-32 3.31 (130) in 732 iP (1.12)
    5 yrs: 73-40 3.15 (134) in 940 IP (1.11)
    6 yrs: 84-45 3.22 (129) in 1078 IP (1.13)

    Cole's got a big lead over Price in the most recent 2 year numbers, except IP, but the 4 prior years goes to Price:

    Prior 3-6 years combined:
    Price: 61-32 3.02 (127) in 831 IP (1.13)
    Cole: 49-35 3.55 (112) in 665 IP (1.23)


    I like this, both are pretty even in the prior 3 years.

    But no matter what Boras will try to get a couple opt-outs after the 2nd or 3rd years and make it front loaded, lets say an AAV for the first 2 or 3 years of 40 Millions and try to test the market again at 31 or 32 if the performance goes as planned. I'd love a deal like this for the Yankees, the added years to the initial contract is what kills the team (Sabathia), the first contract was like 6/161 after the opt-out the Yankees added three more years and those were the ones which killed the team.

    The deal will be something around 8 years for 270-280 Million, making the last year a mutual option.

  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    I like this, both are pretty even in the prior 3 years.

    But no matter what Boras will try to get a couple opt-outs after the 2nd or 3rd years and make it front loaded, lets say an AAV for the first 2 or 3 years of 40 Millions and try to test the market again at 31 or 32 if the performance goes as planned. I'd love a deal like this for the Yankees, the added years to the initial contract is what kills the team (Sabathia), the first contract was like 6/161 after the opt-out the Yankees added three more years and those were the ones which killed the team.

    The deal will be something around 8 years for 270-280 Million, making the last year a mutual option.
    So now MLBTR is setting the over/under for Cole at 9yrs/$324mill.

    Go Yankees. Go get your top priority!!

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    So now MLBTR is setting the over/under for Cole at 9yrs/$324mill.

    Go Yankees. Go get your top priority!!
    I want Cole, but not at that price, too much for pitcher

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    I want Cole, but not at that price, too much for pitcher
    While Cole is a good pitcher, he's not someone who should be breaking salary records. He's a prime case of good timing...

  5. #200
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    While Cole is a good pitcher, he's not someone who should be breaking salary records. He's a prime case of good timing...
    13 WAR the last two seasons isnít a career year contract year. But I donít like the acquisition cost either. The problem is, we need an ace. And as much as I like MadBum, heís not really an ace anymore. Yeah, he had a very good 2019, but heís not a guy you can hand the ball to and expect a win every time out like you can with Cole. MadBum screwed himself with the ATV accident

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    13 WAR the last two seasons isn’t a career year contract year. But I don’t like the acquisition cost either. The problem is, we need an ace. And as much as I like MadBum, he’s not really an ace anymore. Yeah, he had a very good 2019, but he’s not a guy you can hand the ball to and expect a win every time out like you can with Cole. MadBum screwed himself with the ATV accident
    But Cole at that cost might force the Yankees to make an unpleasant decision or two down the road. Can they afford Cole and also keep both Judge and Torres? And still field a worthwhile team around those 3 players? The Yankees might have a lot of money coming off the books, but that also means they have a lot of replacements to make. And their farm system isn't what it was a couple years ago...

  7. #202
    One of the reasons why the sox are doing what they are doing and the Yanks are going for it is timing. The sox went for it when there was only no consensus dominant team. After 2015, when DD took over, the best teams in the AL were KC and Toronto. KC was never going to maintain dominance as a small market club. Toronto was buoyed by aging vets on short term deals. Both of those teams were destined for a quick demise. The sox main competitor, the Yanks, were dealing with the aftermath of Randy Levine continuing the Boss' way of life yet not paying attention to the cost and you have a downtrodden rival and no clear top dog. The sox took advantage of this, albeit not knowing the Astros were going to che..build their way to a title of their own and 2 of 3 AL Crowns. But the sox got theirs and because of the use of their window, they will be able to fly that flag forever. For the Yanks, our rebuild came faster, but outside of being given Stanton (who we didn't really need), we haven't made any moves beyond peripheral additions on short term deals. Well, now the landscape is different. The sox are facing cap hell with a continued stated goal of getting under the cap, a horrendous farm system, and guys coming due for raises or FA. They are a non factor at this point. The co-ace of the Astros is up for grabs and pulling him from Houston will be start of their downfall as they are about to experience a purge with key players hitting the FA market as well. There is no way they replicate their performance without Cole. In a year, they wont be able to aptly replace Springer. Their farm remains good, but relying entirely on a 36 yr old and a soon to be 37 yr old to lead a rotation is a fine way to end up with a disappointing season. The Twins are not a formidable foe and we all know it. The Indians are facing a purge as well as they are going to have trouble keeping their superstar in Lindor. The timing is there to make this move. Is Cole expensive, hell yes. If he performs to Houston levels for the next 3-4 seasons, will the deal be worth it? Hell yes. Adding Cole makes our rotation probably the best in baseball. Cole, Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, JMont, and German is as deep a rotation and as strong at the top that you'll find in baseball. Add that to our top notch offense and lights out pen and that's what you do to win a title. This kind of move is what puts the Yanks back on the map and a target on their backs.

    The other thing most people aren't seeing here is just how the money works out. For 2020, we are going to need to be careful not to pass that final line. But after 2020, the contracts for Paxton, Ellsbury, Happ, Lemahieu and Tanaka come off the books. That is $85 mil and only a portion of that will go to the arb totals for Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, JMont, etc. We would need to re-sign DJ and that will cost us, but the rest can be replaced internally or re-signed for less.
    The rebuild is complete.

  8. #203
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    But Cole at that cost might force the Yankees to make an unpleasant decision or two down the road. Can they afford Cole and also keep both Judge and Torres? And still field a worthwhile team around those 3 players? The Yankees might have a lot of money coming off the books, but that also means they have a lot of replacements to make. And their farm system isn't what it was a couple years ago...
    The farm system isn't what it was, maybe, but it sure as hell kicked ass when we needed it to last season. Where we are LOADED is on the pitching end. Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, and others all with mid rotation or higher ceilings and all moving up in the system. That doesn't include major league depth in German, Loaisiga, and Montgomery. The money falling off the books is almost entirely on the pitching end outside of DJ. He is gonna cost us something and we are going to have to be willing to pay it. But if you stack Cole with Severino, you've got a hell of a top 2. From there, you add German (19 game winner last year) and Montgomery and all you need is one guy to stick and another to be the 6th starter/backup and you roll from there.

    Yes, the money will make things difficult to keep the entire band together, but without a pre-arb deal or extension, that was going to be an issue anyway
    The rebuild is complete.

  9. #204
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    No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

    1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

    2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

    Catch-22 all over

  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

    1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

    2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

    Catch-22 all over
    Very true.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    No matter what the yankees do with Cole they will come with a HUGE amount of crititcs

    1. If they get Cole at a record setting deal - detractors will say that they are trying to buy a championship and that Cashman is a fool because the deal will cripple the team in a few years

    2. If they don't get him - they will accuse the yankees of being cheap and not willing to go the extra mile to get number 28

    Catch-22 all over
    I hope they get him with a massive overpay, and he becomes their David Price in 2-3 years.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I hope they get him with a massive overpay, and he becomes their David Price in 2-3 years.
    what will be your opinion if we let him go?

  13. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carpin View Post
    what will be your opinion if we let him go?
    I'd rather you sign him, so our long term chances at besting the Yanks would improve.

    If he gets away, our shorter term chances may be better, but you guys will just spend the money elsewhere. If you spread out the money, it will likely make you better- short and long term.

    (Don't tell Nick I said this, because he'll turn it on me over the resigning Betts issue.)
    Sox 4 Ever

  14. #209
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    Didi to Philly

    Terms not announced yet

    I wish the best for him

  15. #210
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    Sucks to see Didi leave. He was a great Yankee. I also didn't wanna have to change my avatar.

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