2020 Yankee Off-Season Thread

[notin]

I have my doubts that Gammons meant the Yankees have signed Cole.

Everyone knows Boras is not a “take the first offer early”, especially when there are other teams interested. The man dragged out the JD Martinez negotiations until February, but some think Gammons is suggesting Boras walked away from a potential 3-large-market team bidding war? I know any decision to sign is Cole’s, but he did hire Boras for his advice, and I doubt his advice was “avoid the crazy offers climbing over each other and just sign early.”

And I also doubt that when Cole does sign, this league-shattering news will be broken via a cryptic tweet that gets less media coverage than the signings of Beau Taylor, Kyle Finnegan and Keon Broxton...

[notin]

Reportedly the Yankees have offered Cole $245mill over 7 years ($35mill AAV).

Boras will reject that, at least until both SoCal candidates make offers...

[jacksonianmarch]

I do think it goes higher, but not much higher. This is the largest contract ever for a pitcher in both AAV and total value. And on total value, it ain’t close. This is quite an opening salvo and making it public was likely leaked from the Yankee side to prove to the fans that they’re willing to go the extra mile to win.

[notin]

I do think it goes higher, but not much higher. This is the largest contract ever for a pitcher in both AAV and total value. And on total value, it ain’t close. This is quite an opening salvo and making it public was likely leaked from the Yankee side to prove to the fans that they’re willing to go the extra mile to win.

The problem with the Yankees leaking the amount - and I have my doubts they did - is if they did for the reason you say, then they absolutely have to get Cole. If, say, Dodgers swoop in and sign Cole for 7yrs/$252 mill, the Yankee fans that the organization thinks they’re appeasing will all say “What? The extra mile couldn’t swing another million per year?!?!”

I would assume it was leaked by the Boras Camp. It let’s the Angels and Dodgers know what they have to beat...

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly don’t think the Dodgers are gonna be in on this. They’re a big money spender, but their rotation is pretty solid at the top and they’ve got their own financial concerns coming due. The Angels are going to be the biggest competition here, but I wonder if they bring in the biggest fish again a la Pujols.

That being said, there’s literally no reason the Yanks shouldn’t go for broke on this one. We’re at the line, so as long as the bidding doesn’t go past $40 mil, then there’s no penalty outside of cash. We are likely to swing a deal to send off Happ after this move, which will likely see us save about $10 mil off his contract, allowing us the space to re-sign Gardner, which Cashman is wont to do.

[moonslav59]

So, Cole at $245M/7 at age 29.

Price at $217M/7 at age 30.

Let's compare the two at their time of signing:

Price: coming off a league leading ERA of 2.45 (164 ERA+) in 220 IP.
2yrs prior: 33-17 2.88 (135 ERA+) in 469 IP (most in MLB) 1.08 WHIP
3 yrs prior: 43-25 3.01 (129 ERA+) in 655 IP and 1.08 WHIP
4 yrs: 63-30 2.90 (133) in 866 IP (1.09)
5 yrs: 75-43 3.02 (127) in 1091 IP (1.10)
6 yrs: 94-49 2.97 (130) in 1299 IP (1.11)

Cole: coming off a league leading ERA 2.50 (185 ERA+) in 212 IP (0.90 WHIP)
2 yrs: 35-10 2.68 (164) in 413 IP (0.96)
3 yrs: 47-22 3.20 (136) in 616 IP (1.06)
4 yrs: 54-32 3.31 (130) in 732 iP (1.12)
5 yrs: 73-40 3.15 (134) in 940 IP (1.11)
6 yrs: 84-45 3.22 (129) in 1078 IP (1.13)

Cole's got a big lead over Price in the most recent 2 year numbers, except IP, but the 4 prior years goes to Price:

Prior 3-6 years combined:
Price: 61-32 3.02 (127) in 831 IP (1.13)
Cole: 49-35 3.55 (112) in 665 IP (1.23)

[jacksonianmarch]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

[moonslav59]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

Yes, nobody knows, but the odds are he'll start declining sooner rather than later.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, nobody knows, but the odds are he'll start declining sooner rather than later.

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

[notin]

Cole was also in the dreaded Pittsburgh system, the system that preaches sinkers and contact. Cole got to a power system in Houston and never looked back.

The risk is there. Price’s performance fell off the map once he signed in Boston. He was serviceable in his first year, but arm issues and velocity loss have caused him to become a middle tier pitcher. Nobody could have predicted Price’s demise just as nobody could predict Cole’s. Maybe it happens in 2020, or maybe he’s the next Verlander who pitches into his late 30s as an ace. Who knows

Pitchers like Verlander, who actually looked like he was slowing own in 2014 and 2015, and Scherzer are very, very, very, very likely not the career models other will follow. And I am under-using the word "Very" here.. The overwhelming majority of pitchers decline throughout their 30s at such a high attrition rate, that even mentioning the alternate possibility is nothing more than wishful thinking.

If the Yankees miss out on Cole, it will be the best thing to happen to this organization in a long time. And by the end of 2022, you will be agreeing with me on this.

Want the Yankees to start their next dynasty? Pry Shane Bieber out of Cleveland...

[notin]

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

Well, Cole throws an 89mph slider over 20% of the time. The only pitchers throwing a harder slider are Jake deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Antony Desclafini. That timetable might get bumped up a year or two.

But as you say, it will be worth it if he can replicate a career year 4 more times...

[moonslav59]

That’s not really true. The odds are that he’ll start to decline when a lot of these guys do, 33-34. Injuries can expedite that. Like I said, the deal is worth it if Cole gives us 3-4 years of 2019 type performance

You crack me up.

[moonslav59]

Well, Cole throws an 89mph slider over 20% of the time. The only pitchers throwing a harder slider are Jake deGrom, Zack Wheeler, and Antony Desclafini. That timetable might get bumped up a year or two.

But as you say, it will be worth it if he can replicate a career year 4 more times...

Only Yankees can do that.

Don't you know?

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ll take 2018 too

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ve been preaching for months now that signing Cole would have other significantly positive effects for our squad, namely give a leader to a rotation that badly needs one. But it also helps shore up the top of our rotation for years to come.

With Tanaka and Paxton entering the final seasons of their contracts, Cole allows us to internally fill their spots and not have to panic and overpay them. For 2020, our rotation would be incredibly deep. Assuming a deal of Happ, we’d have 6 starters plus a lot of big league and minor league depth. For 2021 and 2022, it’ll give us a core of

1. Cole
2. Severino
3. German
4. Montgomery
5. Internal filler (Garcia, Gil, Schmidt, Yajure, etc)

Filling the back end is far, far easier to do than the top. We have to win this bidding war