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Thread: Playing Red Sox GM: salary dump time!

  1. #106
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    1. It was a phrase before Breaking Bad.
    2. It was not just a line; it was the title of the episode.
    3. There is a difference between changing course and seeing just what happens until halfway through the season.

    Put it this way. Does “going all in one last time” with Betts really seem like an option now that we know Jake Marisnick is on the table? Isn’t that like going all in when you have 2-7 off suit in the pocket?
    I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

    I'll take that half-measure any day.
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  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

    I'll take that half-measure any day.
    Oh that was a massive overpay, especially since the Cubs really werenít struggling with their closer. But I donít think you can count on another GM giving up that much. Compare it to what the Dodgers gave up for a half year of Machado....

  3. #108
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    I didn't even realize this until looking it up, but when the Yanks traded Chapman to the Cubs in July/16, they not only got Gleyber Torres, but Adam Warren and Billy McKinney (who was later traded to the Jays in the deal for J A Happ) and another player. And we talk about what DD gave up for Kimbrel!

    I'll take that half-measure any day.
    At the time, Kimbrel was paid like the top closer in MLB, but it was 3 years.

    Teams have given up a lot for great players. I'm not sure many teams will or can pay $28M for Betts, but he's worth way more than that to any team. We should get a few very good offers- better, if we take back some salary or give some cash.
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  4. #109
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    FWIW, CBS Sports does have the Red Sox as Betts' most likely team in 2020


    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/w...d-sox-slugger/

  5. #110
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    FWIW, CBS Sports does have the Red Sox as Betts' most likely team in 2020


    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/w...d-sox-slugger/
    This was from Sept 30th, before the playoffs, and it mentions the Dodgers getting desperate, if they don't win in 2019.

    Hosuton was rumored to have wanted Eovaldi last winter. How about Betts & Eovaldi for Marisnik and a couple prospects?

    Then, we resign Betts after 2020 with the money saved from JD's opt out and Eovaldi's lost contract.
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  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    This was from Sept 30th, before the playoffs, and it mentions the Dodgers getting desperate, if they don't win in 2019.

    Hosuton was rumored to have wanted Eovaldi last winter. How about Betts & Eovaldi for Marisnik and a couple prospects?

    Then, we resign Betts after 2020 with the money saved from JD's opt out and Eovaldi's lost contract.
    I donít know the Astros budget, but does adding Greinke possibly hamper taking on Betts and Eovaldi?

  7. #112
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I donít know the Astros budget, but does adding Greinke possibly hamper taking on Betts and Eovaldi?
    Betts is just 1 year- Eovaldi 2.

    The Astros have tons of money due to not spending for several years.

    They do have some stars nearing free agency and big arb years, but they are losing Cole, this year.
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  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Betts is just 1 year- Eovaldi 2.

    The Astros have tons of money due to not spending for several years.

    They do have some stars nearing free agency and big arb years, but they are losing Cole, this year.
    Eovaldi is 3.
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  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I love Betts, but he isnít the single greatest factor in 2020. The Sox can keep him, ďgo for itĒ, and still flop. Sure they can wait until July to deal him for a prospect and some table scraps, lose him forever to free agency, and somehow hope 2021 and beyond will be different.

    Deal him now, get the best offer in a trade, and go hard after him in 2021. The Sox chances of re-signing him long term are still probably greater than their chances of another title in 2020 if they keep him. And as for ďdeal him in July if,Ē thatís a half-measure. And half measures avail nothing
    Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

    What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.

  10. #115
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Eovaldi is 3.
    Yes, I mistyped. Thanks.
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  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

    What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.
    Then the Sox should deal him. Theyíre only going to win it all if all three human arm slings are healthy. But they can deal Betts for some useful players not found within the Sox organization and maybe be that much better in 2021 and beyond...

  12. #117
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Personally, I'm torn between keeping Mookie this year or trading him, though I'm leaning towards keeping him because I think the team has a really good chance to compete in 2020. Either way, I can see the benefits.

    What I am against, however, is signing him to a long term contract. Ten year deal? No way would I do that. While I like the idea of a shorter contract at a higher AAV, I could not do 6 years at an AAV of $43 million per year. I think the Sox need to let him go.
    What would Betts have to do, in your opinion, to earn $320M/10?

    Would this be enough?

    No seasons under 145 games.

    .900 to 1.100 OPS for 2 seasons
    .850-.950 OPS for 4 more seasons
    .800-.900 OPS for 2 more seasons
    .750-.850 OPS for last 2 seasons.

    (No more than half his seasons on the low ends of these ranges)
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  13. #118
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Then the Sox should deal him. They’re only going to win it all if all three human arm slings are healthy. But they can deal Betts for some useful players not found within the Sox organization and maybe be that much better in 2021 and beyond...
    I can't really argue against that. Like I said, I'm torn on the issue of trading or keeping Betts. I do think we'll be competitive next year, but I also believe we can be competitive without Mookie.

  14. #119
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    What would Betts have to do, in your opinion, to earn $320M/10?

    Would this be enough?

    No seasons under 145 games.

    .900 to 1.100 OPS for 2 seasons
    .850-.950 OPS for 4 more seasons
    .800-.900 OPS for 2 more seasons
    .750-.850 OPS for last 2 seasons.

    (No more than half his seasons on the low ends of these ranges)
    You are talking in terms of hindsight, Moon. If I knew that Mookie would put up really good numbers for the duration of the contract, I'd sign up in a heartbeat. It's the risk involved with a long term contract that I'm opposed to. Yes, Mookie may have less risk than other players, but there is still a lot of risk involved no matter who the player is.

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I can't really argue against that. Like I said, I'm torn on the issue of trading or keeping Betts. I do think we'll be competitive next year, but I also believe we can be competitive without Mookie.
    I think so too. The Nationals did OK without Harper...

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