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Thread: Playing Red Sox GM: salary dump time!

  1. #121
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    You are talking in terms of hindsight, Moon. If I knew that Mookie would put up really good numbers for the duration of the contract, I'd sign up in a heartbeat. It's the risk involved with a long term contract that I'm opposed to. Yes, Mookie may have less risk than other players, but there is still a lot of risk involved no matter who the player is.
    I understand my example is "hindsight," but I am just wondering what you think he'd need to do to earn it. This is not about what we think he will do.

    I'm wondering, if our disagreement is more about what we think $300M is in terms of production or more about not thinking he'll put up similar numbers as this one example.

    BTW, the numbers I listed seems about like what I'd expect him to put up.

    My thinking is this, if he's making $32M a year, he's probably worth $45M for 4 years, so we're up $$52M after year 4. Maybe he earns $32M for 3 years, so we're still up $52M after 7 years. Maybe his last 3 years, he's worth $25, $20 and $15. That's minus $32M. Overall, we're still plus $20M in terms of value.

    Of course, one year being out with an injury flips it from plus to minus, unless it's year 9 or 10.
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  2. #122
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I understand my example is "hindsight," but I am just wondering what you think he'd need to do to earn it. This is not about what we think he will do.

    I'm wondering, if our disagreement is more about what we think $300M is in terms of production or more about not thinking he'll put up similar numbers as this one example.

    BTW, the numbers I listed seems about like what I'd expect him to put up.

    My thinking is this, if he's making $32M a year, he's probably worth $45M for 4 years, so we're up $$52M after year 4. Maybe he earns $32M for 3 years, so we're still up $52M after 7 years. Maybe his last 3 years, he's worth $25, $20 and $15. That's minus $32M. Overall, we're still plus $20M in terms of value.

    Of course, one year being out with an injury flips it from plus to minus, unless it's year 9 or 10.
    If I had to pick one, I'd say that our disagreement is more about whether Mookie will put up similar numbers to what you posted. That said, our disagreement really isn't about either of those things. I think it's more about my overall aversion to huge contracts because for one, it's too big of a risk, and for two, I don't like having that much money tied up in one player.

    When all is said and done, Mookie may very well end up being worth the contract due to his play in the early years of the contract. However, a contract like that will handcuff the team in other areas, and there's a good chance the contract will become an albatross in the later years.

  3. #123
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    If I had to pick one, I'd say that our disagreement is more about whether Mookie will put up similar numbers to what you posted. That said, our disagreement really isn't about either of those things. I think it's more about my overall aversion to huge contracts because for one, it's too big of a risk, and for two, I don't like having that much money tied up in one player.

    When all is said and done, Mookie may very well end up being worth the contract due to his play in the early years of the contract. However, a contract like that will handcuff the team in other areas, and there's a good chance the contract will become an albatross in the later years.
    Fair enough.

    I don't usually like deals longer than 5 years, but I think Betts may earn the $300M in his next 6 years.
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