The Red Sox have stated that it's a "goal, but not a mandate" to get the payroll below $208 million for luxury tax purposes for 2020. $208 million is the "first tax threshold" for 2020. If they can get below that number, they will not only avoid paying luxury tax for the first time in 3 years, their tax rate for 2021 will be re-set to the lowest rates.
According to Cot's Contracts, which is as far as I can tell the most accurate, comprehensive and easy to understand of all the payroll trackers, the Red Sox 2020 payroll for tax purposes currently sits at $218,367. This includes estimates for all arbitration salaries, plus the other stuff that has to be added in, including player benefits of about $15 million.
So the daunting task assigned to Chaim Bloom and the rest of baseball ops and bean-counters is to somehow shave about $10.5 million of payroll.
They could actually achieve this in one simple stroke by removing Jackie Bradley Jr., whose arbitration estimate is $11.5 million.
But of course there are other things to be considered, such as who would replace JBJ, who will replace Rick Porcello in the rotation etc.
Other prime candidates to be removed from payroll:
Mookie Betts - $27.5 million arbitration estimate
JD Martinez - $22 million AAV
David Price - $31 million AAV (but the Red Sox would almost certainly have to pay at least half of it if they trade him)
Nathan Eovaldi $17 million AAV