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Thread: Calling All Budgies - the Red Sox 2020 payroll thread

  1. #1
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Calling All Budgies - the Red Sox 2020 payroll thread

    The Red Sox have stated that it's a "goal, but not a mandate" to get the payroll below $208 million for luxury tax purposes for 2020. $208 million is the "first tax threshold" for 2020. If they can get below that number, they will not only avoid paying luxury tax for the first time in 3 years, their tax rate for 2021 will be re-set to the lowest rates.

    According to Cot's Contracts, which is as far as I can tell the most accurate, comprehensive and easy to understand of all the payroll trackers, the Red Sox 2020 payroll for tax purposes currently sits at $218,367. This includes estimates for all arbitration salaries, plus the other stuff that has to be added in, including player benefits of about $15 million.

    So the daunting task assigned to Chaim Bloom and the rest of baseball ops and bean-counters is to somehow shave about $10.5 million of payroll.

    They could actually achieve this in one simple stroke by removing Jackie Bradley Jr., whose arbitration estimate is $11.5 million.

    But of course there are other things to be considered, such as who would replace JBJ, who will replace Rick Porcello in the rotation etc.

    Other prime candidates to be removed from payroll:

    Mookie Betts - $27.5 million arbitration estimate
    JD Martinez - $22 million AAV
    David Price - $31 million AAV (but the Red Sox would almost certainly have to pay at least half of it if they trade him)
    Nathan Eovaldi $17 million AAV
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

  2. #2
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    Trade Price ($31mill AAV) to San Diego for Wil Myers ($13.8mill AAV).

    San Diego started the off-season with a glut of outfielders and has since traded for two more (while dealing one back). They donít want Myers, which is legitimate internet rumor buzz, so, yeah, unsubstantiated.

    But what isnít unsubstantiated is their mandate to win more games. Getting Price gives them a veteran atop a very young rotation. Getting Price (owed $96mill for 3 years) for Myers (owed $68.5 mill over 3 years) gets the Padres a 2-2.5 fWAR veteran pitcher for 3 years for a net cost of $27.5 mill, or $9.1mill per year.

    Or basically exactly what the Rangers paid Kyle Gibson (2.6.fWAR).

    Oh yeah . And the Sox get Wil Myers. Stick him at 1b and marvel at the adequacy in action...
    Last edited by notin; 12-07-2019 at 08:52 AM.

  3. #3
    In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?

    Even if it's borderline, we'd then still have to slash cash to be able to stockpile arms. JBJ's 11 mil could ideally be split for two 5.5 mil pitchers...

    Since a lot of teams have already made moves -- signings, trades, offers -- while the Sox have not yet, I wouldn't be surprised if Bloom is preparing a series of cause-and-effect if-thens ready to drop like dominoes at this week's meetings...

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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?

    Even if it's borderline, we'd then still have to slash cash to be able to stockpile arms. JBJ's 11 mil could ideally be split for two 5.5 mil pitchers...

    Since a lot of teams have already made moves -- signings, trades, offers -- while the Sox have not yet, I wouldn't be surprised if Bloom is preparing a series of cause-and-effect if-thens ready to drop like dominoes at this week's meetings...
    So... is there an over/under date for Bloomís first move that doesnít involve Josh Osich?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    In that SD scenario, if we don't have to add dollars, would that be enough to get under the not-a-mandate?
    ...
    Yes.

    According to Belhorn and Cotís, the Sox need to shed $10.37 mill. That trade sheds $17.2 mill off payroll numbers.

    But it leaves 2 voids in the rotation...

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    Per MLBTR, most GMs are reluctant to trade anything decent for Betts and prefer to wait a year and just sign him.

    Granted, the article doesnít say ALL GMs and you really need just one to say ďMy team could use Mookie Betts in his prime. So what do you want?Ē But in the event Bloom cannot find that one GM, trading Mookie should be off the table...

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    So you pay half of Price's contract, and keep Eovaldi at 17, no thanks, rather move Nathan. Price comes back after injury, and depending on Teams situation, he could be a could Trade chip in July. Gamble yes, but the Track record between Price and Nathan, is ridiculous.
    One is proven, the other never proved anything.
    Last edited by OH FOY!; 12-07-2019 at 10:27 AM.

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    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Yes.

    According to Belhorn and Cotís, the Sox need to shed $10.37 mill. That trade sheds $17.2 mill off payroll numbers.

    But it leaves 2 voids in the rotation...
    Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

    If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

    I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

    Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:
    $9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)
    $9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)
    $8M x 2 Wade Miley
    $8M/1 Alex Wood
    $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)
    $3M/1 Drew Smily
    Honorable Mentions:
    Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

    Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?
    Sox 4 Ever

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    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OH FOY! View Post
    So you pay half of Price's contract, and keep Eovaldi at 17, no thanks, rather move Nathan. Price comes back after injury, and depending on Teams situation, he could be a could Trade chip in July. Gamble yes, but the Track record between Price and Nathan, is ridiculous.
    One is proven, the other never proved anything.
    One's arm is hanging by a thread- one has had a hodge podge of non-career threatening injuries.
    Sox 4 Ever

  10. #10
    One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...

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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

    If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

    I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

    Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:
    $9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)
    $9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)
    $8M x 2 Wade Miley
    $8M/1 Alex Wood
    $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)
    $3M/1 Drew Smily
    Honorable Mentions:
    Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

    Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?
    If the Sox deal JBJ, the team could also give a chance to Chris Archer. He would be affordable and probably better than some of those free agents. Think Cherington does a Bradley-Archer trade? Bradley will make maybe $2mill more and Fangraphs says Pittís outfield defense was among the worst in MLB. I would assume Pitt would like a minor leaguer as well. They are rebuilding after all.

    And really, if the Sox do trade Bradley, donít you think theyíre taking some money back in some way?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...
    And one has 5 All Star appearances and 4 top 6 Cy Young finishes, including one award, and has received MVP votes multiple times, while the other has never gotten a vote for anything since high school, where he was unanimously chosen ďMost Likely to Have Multiple Tommy John SurgeriesĒ...

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    One proved he can beat NY in Yankee Stadium in both the regular season and postseason -- the other can't do either, continues to embarrass the franchise by making public comments that are terrible for business, is four years older and makes almost twice as much money...
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, but we filled the 1B opening and maybe could get by with Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco at 2B.

    If we also trade JBJ,we're almost at $29M saved. Minus the $10.5 we need to reset,we'd have about $18M to spend on cheap FAs to fill 2 SP'er slots,CF and a RP'er.

    I think we can get a defensive CF'er at close to the min. We may just passon adding any expensive pen pieces and pray for DHern and/or some other prospect to add to returning Workman, Barnes,Taylor & Walden. That might leave $5M to spend on each SP'er,or we try DHern in the rotation.

    Here are some MLBTR projected salaries for low cost starters:
    $9M x 2 Tanner Roark (30+ GS'd in 5 of last 6 years)
    $9M x 2 Julio Teheran (4th in GS'd 2013-2019)
    $8M x 2 Wade Miley
    $8M/1 Alex Wood
    $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom (my sleeper pick)
    $3M/1 Drew Smily
    Honorable Mentions:
    Brett Anderson, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez

    Can any of these guys give us legitimate hopes in 2020 -more than having JBJ and a healthy Price?
    The Sox should also consider Edwin Jackson. I think itís our turn to sign him...

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And one has 5 All Star appearances and 4 top 6 Cy Young finishes, including one award, and has received MVP votes multiple times, while the other has never gotten a vote for anything since high school, where he was unanimously chosen “Most Likely to Have Multiple Tommy John Surgeries”...
    You know I have to say this: but never for Boston.

    And Mark McGwire isn't here to talk about the past...

  15. #15
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Personally I would rather keep both Price and Eovaldi. But I'd certainly rather see one of them go than Betts or JDM.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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