only Red Sox pitchers get injured!
other names i have posted under: none
True he does eat innings and is durable. Also he had the same number of quality starts as James Paxton (over only 3 more starts) which I found hard to believe. But the overall results were horrible because he had so many non-competitive games.
Porcello: 174.1 IP, 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 (down from 8.9 the prior year), 10 starts allowing 5+ ER
JA Happ, who I thought was pretty horrible last year, even performed better: 161.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 6 starts allowing 5+ ER. If it weren't for injuries I wouldn't even want him starting.
If your replacement of an underperforming but durable pitcher is a worse performing less durable pitcher, then you’ve downgraded.
In terms of Happ, let’s look at his season. He was incredibly affected by the rocket ball. 1.9HR/9IP. That’s 0.71HR/9IP higher than his average. Also, his velo was down early and rebounded late. He battled biceps tendinitis as well, which makes me wonder if he was battling arm soreness all season. He was absolutely dominant in September and was flashing 93-94 mph heat, which was never his MO.
Here is what we know about Happ 2.0 (15-19). Durable guy, reasonable K rate, good walk rate, average HR rate up to last year. If he replicates 2019, we will likely be fine as he won’t be in the rotation beyond June 1 but he would be just good enough for our offense and pen to bail him out. If he replicated 2018, then we are in a good type of pickle. He’s pitching like a borderline ace, but we should want to offload his contract. Anywhere in between and we take it through June and deal him. The big question is, does he get worse than 2019. Certainly possible as he is old, so you wait and see.
The reason why the Paxton injury isn’t entirely destructive is that Paxton isn’t expected to be the ace. Out of ST last year, Paxton was expected to be the ace with Sevy down. Now, Sevy is healthy and we have Cole. Happ stays in the rotation. Montgomery, who has shown success in a season plus, has an inside track to a rotation spot. We can patch a fifth spot together with Cessa and Loaisiga if we must. We also have a healthy Michael King ready to help. Deivi Garcia got to AAA last year. Our most well rounded pitching prospect reached AA last year in Schmidt. We have the guys capable of making filling in. And one must remember that German and Paxton are expected back at the same time. German would have won 20 last year if he could be a decent human. Paxton was lights out second half last year.
Paxton expected to start a throwing program within 7-10 days. He’s recovering far faster than expectations and the most recent article I read on him said he might only miss 6 weeks before being able to take the mound against big league hitting. It’ll take a couple weeks to build him up again.
His surgery was Feb 7. 6 weeks puts him on pace to start building up the last week of March. He’ll go on the IL, but likely the 10 day. He could be fully stretched out by mid April. Conservative return date per the updated article was May 1. Looks like an actual possibility
I saw that too. Their timelines don’t match up, though. They said he could be fully recovered 6 weeks post op rather than 3 months. If he’s ready in six weeks and takes 2-3 weeks to ramp up, that’s April. Maybe the Yanks are planning to keep him away from the cold and stretching him out in Tampa. Who knows