2020 Yankees Season thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, 2020 is going to be a banner year! Or so we thought. The injury bug which didn't really hinder the Yanks until the cheating Astros took them out in 6 has reared its ugly head again. Returning are mostly the same cast of characters. Gone are Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. Both missed considerable time last year, one missed all but one game. Retired is Sabathia, who effectively lived as the 5th starter for a team ravaged by injuries until his arm let loose in his last appearance. In comes the new Yankee golden goose in Gerrit Cole. Cole is as dominant a pitcher as there is. Impeccable control of a powerful and deep arsenal. A guy who's first loss after May 15 was in game 1 of the WS. He jumps to the front of the team. Gone for 2020 is Severino. TJS surgery done today knocks him out into the 2021 season. Paxton had back surgery, but his timeline keeps creeping up as he's due to take a mound again next week. Initial estimates were late May to June, the most recent article I saw was late April. Domingo German received the punishment he so rightly deserved. While his slap was less than what Addison Russell got for doing far worse, it should be a deterrent for the same garbage happening again. German is going to go from pariah to much needed reinforcement when he can return around June 1. Judge has been hindered by a shoulder, but is coming along well. Stanton is down with a calf, but shouldn't (read as this injury should be a 2-4 week injury, not a 5 month injury like last year) take him out for much of April, but he is likely to miss the first week of the season. So without further adieu, the Yanks for 2020 should look like this

[jacksonianmarch]

C- Sanchez, Higashioka.

Gary Sanchez was one of the best hitters in baseball through June last year then fell off considerably. His defense ticked up, but ticked up from being one of the worst catchers in baseball isn't that big of a compliment. Still, he put up a 2.3WAR in only 106 games blasting 34 homers and OPS'ing over .800. For a catcher, that's pretty damn good. He still remains one of, if not the, best offensive catchers in the game. One other detraction for Sanchez is health. Gary has missed a lot of time with a groin issue the past 2 seasons. Unsure if that's going to continue or not, but he isn't exactly an iron man out there.

Backing him up is Kyle Higashioka. Kyle is a strong armed, stiff defender who doesn't profile to be as good defensively as his predecessor, Romine, was. But he has far more pop. Higa smashed 23 homers in only 80 games last year between AAA and the bigs. He also isn't a kid. Kyle is 29 yrs old and has been in the Yanks system for 12 years. He should provide a defensive improvement over Sanchez, but not by the extent Romine did. Time will tell if the power will make up for that loss

1B- Voit, Ford, Andujar

The leader in the clubhouse for the opening day nod is Voit. Voit was absolutely destroying baseballs to the tune of a .902OPS and 17 bombs before the break. But right before the ASB, the Yanks played in London and Luke injured himself running to second. He tore his abdominal wall in that game and tried to play through needing sports hernia surgery. Ultimately, he couldn't and didn't even make the post season roster. He had surgery this offseason. If you put together Luke's finish to 2018 and beginning of 2019, you have a 32HR guy in about 110 games with an OPS well over .940. He has blossomed as a hitter and deserves the chance. He just needs to stay healthy.

Behind Voit is Mike Ford. An undrafted 1b out of Princeton, Ford has quietly been exceeding expectations as a hitter. With all the injuries, he got to the bigs and translated his production in AAA to the majors. He has carved out a spot in the lineup with NY and if he continues to produce, will find his way into the lineup. He also isn't a young kid (27 yrs old), but he follows the Luke Voit career path to a T. High exit velocity, light tower power, great eye. What these two guys will lack is any semblance of defense.

For Andujar, he is going to be listed everywhere. He is a line to line hitter with 30 HR pop and no ability to walk. Coming, with that, though, is a strong ability to avoid the K. The Yanks have a lot of swing and miss in their lineup, and his ability to make contact will find him a spot on a daily basis in the lineup. He is a .300-30-100 kind of hitter and those don't grow on trees. He will likely find himself in the DH role out of ST until Stanton returns

2B- Lemahieu, Wade, Estrada, Urshela

DJ Lemahieu has always been a hitter. Great with RISP, hard to K, good enough eye, okay power. But his RF approach was built for YS. He has become an expert at sneaking the ball into the stands over the short porch. He is our leadoff hitter and likely wont be as great as last year, but he is set for an excellent contract year in NY

Tyler Wade is a guy who I have liked for awhile and he fits in here as the primary middle infield backup outside of maybe Gio Urshela. Wade is a slick fielding lefty hitter with a good contact stroke and lightning fast wheels. If he ever got the shot at a full time spot, he could steal over 30 bases. But he won't here and that's ok. He will likely see a fair amount of time for rest days for Lemahieu and Torres while filling in at 3b as well. His lefty swing could generate more power than he had in the minors simply because of the short porch, but if he hit 10HR over a 162 game season, I would be surprised

Thairo Estrada is another interesting kid who I like. Good, but not great speed, good contact, no power, slick glove. He is the righty version of Wade minus the extra gear. Over a 162 game season, Estrada might steal 15 bags. He has better contact skills than Wade and could be a .300 hitter in the making, but unless we have epic injuries to the MIF, he won't get that chance

SS- Torres, Wade, Estrada, Urshela

Gleyber Torres had one of the best seasons as a 22 yr old that a Yankee has ever had. 38HR, 90RBI as a middle infielder is very valuable. His defense, though, was suspect and now he shifts to SS. He is known to have a good glove, but needs to show it at SS. If he can even be a decent SS defensively, he could elevate his game to MVP level.

3B- Urshela, Andujar, Wade, Estrada

Gio Urshela is the player I worry the most about. Gio put on some muscle last year and had as career a year as you can have. He set career highs in everything and made all the plays at 3B, which his predecessor couldn't. This is why Urshela is the starting 3b out the gate and Andujar isn't. But there is a real chance Gio had his career year and fades. How big of a fade will depend on where he goes. It would be rare for a player to show off the power he did last year and then completely lose it, but that average is gonna drop. If he can hit .270 with 15HR and play good D at 3b, he would be worth it. If he cannot, then Andujar will get his chance

LF- Tauchman, Frazier, Gardner

Tauchman had himself a year last year. Another Cashman find, Tauchman had long been a great hitter in the Colorado system but didn't get a chance in their crowded outfield. So the Yanks picked him up and he continued to crush in the bigs. He also showed great baserunning and gold glove caliber defense. Out of the gate, he would be better served in CF, but I expect Boone to give that honor to Gardner. Tauchman in Yankee Stadium could be an absolute monster. His lines in AAA from 17-18 were no joke and now that he knows he can play at this level, the sky is the limit. I think we likely see Urshela drop this year. I think we might see Tauchman become a monster in the Bronx, enough so to see Gardy relegated to 4th OF duty when Hicks returns.

Clint Frazier has quietly looked really, really good in ST. He has changed his swing around and has shown more drive and a quicker bat, if that is to be believed. With Stanton slated for the IL, Frazier appears to have the 4th OFer spot on lockdown coming out of ST. We will see if he can rebuild his stock. His bat is not in question, as his lifetime OPS over .800 entails. The glove is what needs to show better.

CF- Gardner, Hicks, Tauchman

Hicks will be back by June 1 by conservative estimates, so Gardner is the guy on opening day. I actually think our best alignment is to have our best OF defender not named Judge in CF, but Boone will throw Gardy here. Gardy showed a power renaissance in the juiced ball era hitting a career high 28 bombs. Interestingly, Gardy's BABIP went down from his career worst 2018 to his best in 2019, but his ISO doubled. At 36, going on 37, it isn't realistic to expect a repeat of 2019. I actually expect Gardy to be our 4th OFer, maybe 5th OFer by the end of the year, but he should continue to provide some pop, good at bats, great defense and good speed when in the lineup.

Aaron Hicks is coming off an injury marred 2019 campaign that started with a back injury and finished with Tommy John. In the 2 years prior to 2019, he totaled 8.3 WAR. Last year, in only 59 games, he was at 1.1. When on the field, he is a 3+ WAR player. He just needs to find a way to stay on the field. He is a premium defender with a rocket arm, a good eye and a lot of pop. We will see when he returns how his recovery translates into production

RF- Judge, Frazier

Aaron Judge has been only health away from being a perennial MVP candidate. He's missed 90+ games total the past 2 seasons and still has averaged 6WAR a season since he came to the bigs. A shoulder injury has slowed him out the gate, but he is expected to make it for opening day. If he can put a full 162 together, he could be a monster.

DH- Stanton, Andujar, Ford, Frazier, Gardner, etc

Stanton is the DH. Let's just put that out there. He will start the year on the IL but should be ready by the first week of April. He essentially missed the entire season last year, but to expect him to do the same this year is a fools errand. He is still a premium power hitter in the league and capable of hitting 40HR every single season he throws on the jersey. My expectation is that we see him in about 120 games maximum this year as I think load management will be critical to ensure he isn't a pile of junk come October. He is a former MVP still in his prime, so don't write him off yet

[jacksonianmarch]

Starters

1. Cole- the best starter in baseball last year, he’s in his prime with power to spare and a great arsenal. He’s exactly what we needed to lead our rotation.

2. Paxton- will return by May 1 as of right now. When healthy, he’s an elite performer. The problem is, he isn’t healthy for full seasons. Then again, he’s heading into a contract year.

3. Tanaka- dominant postseason starter. Very reliable mid rotation guy during the year. He’s been a 2.3-4.6 WAR starter every year. He’s also in a contract year

4. German- suspended for the first 60 games. Last year, won 18 of 24 starts. Was pretty dominant outside of a sky high HR rate. I’d expect that to drop a bit. He’s got the stuff to lead a rotation if he can avoid the HR a bit

5. Happ- fell off after 4 years of 3 WAR annual production in 2019. Stuff picked up in September and thus far this spring, stuff has ticked back up. Likely won’t see the halcyon days of 3ERA’s, but maybe he can be in the low 4’s and be effective

6. Montgomery- now fully recovered from TJS. His velocity has ticked up past his usual this spring. Had a solid near 3 WAR as a rookie. If he stays healthy, he could be a bit more. Definitely slated for the rotation at the outset

7. Loaisiga- powerful arm, no health. Currently healthy, but hasn’t passed 80 innings in a season as a pro. Likely headed for relief, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the yanks use him as a bulk guy out of the getgo before moving to the pen

8. King- King had a dynamite 2018 and was the next man up as the 2019 season started. The problem is, he developed an elbow tendinitis and missed the first half of the year. He only made it to 46 innings in 2019 in what was mostly a lost year. He’s healthy now, but has fallen down the list of guys due to the depth in the system. He also has the lowest upside of the prospects close to big league readiness. He does strike people out, but he’s more the 8K per 9 guy rather than the powerhouses behind him who K 10 or more per 9. He’s also more an impeccable command, sinker slider guy who is more going to be a reliable guy than a top level guy, so the yanks won’t have patience with him

9. Deivi Garcia- Garcia is in contention to make the rotation out of the spring, but I doubt he will make it. He doesn’t turn 21 til May and didn’t dominate AAA yet. Garcia has the best stuff of anyone in the system. Mid 90s heat, dominant slider, bugs bunny change. His issue has been command. He regressed a lot in that category in 2019. His walk rate jumped to 4.5BB/9IP which won’t be sustainable in the bigs. But his swing and miss is undeniable, racking up over a 13K per 9IP ratio as a 19-20 yr old crossing 3 levels. My bet is the Yanks would rather avoid anointing him unless he’s just dominant through ST.

10. Clarke Schmidt, Luis Cessa, and others.

Schmidt is a hell of a prospect, but barely reached AA last year and is coming off just 90IP as a max post TJS. He’s going to need more time. Cessa has lights out stuff, but hasn’t translated it into production as a starter. It’s time for him to relieve full time. We’ve got Hale, Bettis and other depth that could stick as well, but won’t be on the roster beyond June.

[Bellhorn04]

Severino gone for season.
German gone for first 2 months.
Paxton gone for a while.
Stanton gone for a while.
Hicks gone for a while.
Judge now questionable for opening day.

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

[Slasher9]

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

[Bellhorn04]

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

We should absolutely expect the Astros' pitching to be next to fall under suspicion. They seemed to have uncanny success with all their reclamation projects: Cole, old Verlander, Morton, Wade freaking Miley...

Great coaching, great system, great alchemy... or was it something else???? Morton kept his mojo in Tampa, so it is possible to retain and sustain the secret formula.

[mvp 78]

We should absolutely expect the Astros' pitching to be next to fall under suspicion. They seemed to have uncanny success with all their reclamation projects: Cole, old Verlander, Morton, Wade freaking Miley...

Great coaching, great system, great alchemy... or was it something else???? Morton kept his mojo in Tampa, so it is possible to retain and sustain the secret formula.

Wade Miley? The guy who was better in MIL in 2018 than in HOU in 2019? That guy?

[Slasher9]

And will Cole be able to maintain the same spin rate after leaving Houston and their special sticky substances? (Yes, that might be developing as a thing now.)

yup.
his past week, Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer renewed his previous allegations that Houston was one of the teams leading the way with an undetectable substance that helped pitchers maximize their spin rates. In an article for The Players’ Tribune, Bauer wrote, “When I see a guy go from being a good pitcher for one team and spinning the ball at 2,200 rpm, to spinning the ball at 2,600 or 2,700 in Houston, I know exactly what happened.”

[Bellhorn04]

yup.
his past week, Cincinnati starter Trevor Bauer renewed his previous allegations that Houston was one of the teams leading the way with an undetectable substance that helped pitchers maximize their spin rates. In an article for The Players’ Tribune, Bauer wrote, “When I see a guy go from being a good pitcher for one team and spinning the ball at 2,200 rpm, to spinning the ball at 2,600 or 2,700 in Houston, I know exactly what happened.”

And Cole's numbers improved dramatically when he went from Pitt to Houston.

Another interesting subplot to follow this season.

[jacksonianmarch]

but will they be able to do it this season without the Beltran Method?

Apparently Cashman asked Beltran about the Astros cheating and he was an iron trap. Refused to say anything. Cameron Maybin spilled the beans in their entirety.

[jacksonianmarch]

Severino gone for season.
German gone for first 2 months.
Paxton gone for a while.
Stanton gone for a while.
Hicks gone for a while.
Judge now questionable for opening day.

A rack of injuries like that would spell lost season for most teams, including the Red Sox.

But after last season, the Yankees seem like they can overcome such things with relative ease.

It's depth my friend. Right now, let's just say Judge and Stanton miss opening day. I still think Judge makes the opening day lineup as this seems more taking it slow than actually needing the rest, but let's just theorize the Yanks don't have both of them for opening day and clearly Hicks wont be available

1. Lemahieu 2B
2. Andujar DH
3. Torres SS
4. Sanchez C
5. Voit 1B
6. Tauchman LF
7. Urshela 3B
8. Gardner CF
9. Frazier RF

That lineup is still pretty nasty

[mvp 78]

Honestly, Urshela could totally tank this year. Voit came back to earth last year. Aside from last year, DJ only had one other season above 100 OPS+. Frazier and Gardner are both on the back 9. I think a lineup without Stanton and Judge could go south really quick.

[jacksonianmarch]

Honestly, Urshela could totally tank this year. Voit came back to earth last year. Aside from last year, DJ only had one other season above 100 OPS+. Frazier and Gardner are both on the back 9. I think a lineup without Stanton and Judge could go south really quick.

Urshela absolutely could tank. But you're wrong on Voit. He came back down to earth after he got hurt. He got hurt in London and tried to play through a sports hernia, gutting his production. Prior to that, he was a pretty dominant and all star level 1b. Frazier is 25 years old, how is that the back 9?

[mvp 78]

Urshela absolutely could tank. But you're wrong on Voit. He came back down to earth after he got hurt. He got hurt in London and tried to play through a sports hernia, gutting his production. Prior to that, he was a pretty dominant and all star level 1b. Frazier is 25 years old, how is that the back 9?

I was thinking Todd Frazier. My bad.