COVID - Anything goes

[moonslav59]

Of course, polls have been wrong before and will be again in the future, but many polls have studied where they went wrong in 2016, and by the way the final popular vote was not that far off from the final polls, and adjusted their methodology to include certain subgroups that were not fairly represented in the 2016 polls.

What I find interesting is some polls in deep red states. You mentioned Texas having T Rump up 1, and I'll believe it when I see it happen here, but I read somewhere Utah had T Rump up just 3, but I think others have come out since then showing a wider gap.

This professor, who has been right in 5 of the last 6 elections, gives T Rump a 91% chance of winning.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9609236.html

[a700hitter]

Your words:

The report found no evidence establishing conspiracy after 2 1/2 years of a very expensive investigation.

The report never said they found "no evidence" of conspiracy. He said, “We did not address ‘collusion,’ which is not a legal term,” Mueller added. “Rather, we focused on whether the evidence was sufficient to charge any member of the campaign with taking part in a criminal conspiracy. It was not.”.

The report mentions several events that were hard to determine whether they met the specific criteria for conspiracy. He does say he did not think there was enough evidence to charge anyone, but that is not saying "no evidence."

Again, it is wrong to say the report found "no evidence" of conspiracy. He never even addressed "collusion" which is what the president and posters here are saying he exonerated him on over and over again. He might have another opinion on that general term, but your point was just about "conspiracy." I get that.

Look again: no evidence establishing criminal conspiracy

[moonslav59]

Here are the latest RCP Poll Average Numbers on battleground states:

Biden Up
11.0 Virginia
11.0 Minnesota
7.5 Michigan
6.5 Wisconsin
6.5 Pennsylvania
5.2 Florida
4.3 New Hampshire
4.0 Nevada
3.3 North Carolina
2.8 Arizona

Tie
Ohio
Texas

T Rump Up
3.0 Georgia
1.5 Iowa

No polls on Nebraska & Maine's second district where one delegate is appointed.

Here's a look at what the poll averages were right before the 2016 election:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

Poll Avg: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Others/Undecided 9%.
Final: Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Others 6% (Trump gained 1% from final polling)

Battleground (Clinton-Trump):
Poll Avg State Actual
53-42 MN 46-45 T+10
47-40 WI 46-47 T+8 (Wrong projected winner)
47-42 MI 47-47 T+5 (Wrong projected winner)
45-40 NM 47-47 T+5
48-44 PA 47-48 T+5 (Wrong projected winner)
48-44 VA 50-44 C+2
44-41 CO 48-43 C+2
45-44 NH 47-46 even
46-46 FL 48-49 T+1
46-46 NC 46-50 T+4
42-45 IA 42-51 T+6
43-46 OH 44-52 T+5
46-47 NV 48-46 C+3 (Wrong projected win)
44-47 AZ 45-49 T+1
44-49 GA 46-51 even

It seems like the battleground states were much father off from poll projections than the final results.

[moonslav59]

Look again: no evidence establishing criminal conspiracy

"...we focused on whether the evidence was sufficient to charge any member of the campaign with taking part in a criminal conspiracy. It was not.”

[Sox75]

Here are the latest RCP Poll Average Numbers on battleground states:

Biden Up
11.0 Virginia
11.0 Minnesota
7.5 Michigan
6.5 Wisconsin
6.5 Pennsylvania
5.2 Florida
4.3 New Hampshire
4.0 Nevada
3.3 North Carolina
2.8 Arizona

Tie
Ohio
Texas

T Rump Up
3.0 Georgia
1.5 Iowa

No polls on Nebraska & Maine's second district where one delegate is appointed.

Here's a look at what the poll averages were right before the 2016 election:
https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

Poll Avg: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%, Others/Undecided 9%.
Final: Clinton 48%, Trump 46%, Others 6% (Trump gained 1% from final polling)

Battleground (Clinton-Trump):
Poll Avg State Actual
53-42 MN 46-45 T+10
47-40 WI 46-47 T+8 (Wrong projected winner)
47-42 MI 47-47 T+5 (Wrong projected winner)
45-40 NM 47-47 T+5
48-44 PA 47-48 T+5 (Wrong projected winner)
48-44 VA 50-44 C+2
44-41 CO 48-43 C+2
45-44 NH 47-46 even
46-46 FL 48-49 T+1
46-46 NC 46-50 T+4
42-45 IA 42-51 T+6
43-46 OH 44-52 T+5
46-47 NV 48-46 C+3 (Wrong projected win)
44-47 AZ 45-49 T+1
44-49 GA 46-51 even

It seems like the battleground states were much father off from poll projections than the final results.

Dude,

Seriously now....

Are you ok?

I'm truly worried for your health after the November election.

This is not healthy. :'(

[moonslav59]

If we apply the same polling gap from 2016 to today, we'd see these results:

Biden Up

11.0 Minnesota T +10= Biden +1
7.5 Michigan T +5= Biden +2.5
6.5 Wisconsin T +8= Trump +1.5
6.5 Pennsylvania T +5= Biden +1.5
5.2 Florida T +1= Biden +4.2
4.3 New Hampshire even= Biden +4.3
4.0 Nevada C+3= Biden +7
3.3 North Carolina T +4= Trump +0.7
2.8 Arizona T+1= Biden +1.8

By this analysis, FL, PA, MI & AZ would still flip blue.

There's a long way to go, and a lot can change.

[illinoisredsox]

It's all because they changed their name from the Washington Senators -- wait, the majority of those are Republicans... I knew it!

Not in 1972

[illinoisredsox]

Not saying the Dems are perfect, plus they are at least moving in a more democratic direction as super delegates cannot vote on the first ballot.

Superdelegates in the GOP are not the same as in the Democrat party; they are not unpledged. They are limited to 3 per state who MUST vote for the popular winner of their state.

[Thunder]

Vernon Jones, elected DEMOCRATIC REPRESENTATIVE from Georgia, "Unlike @JoeBiden, our president
@realDonaldTrump is committed to supporting law enforcement, protecting all lives, and safe communities across the nation."

Some Democrats get it. They are not fooled by the Democrats and Biden.

Tomorrow, AOC is going to call for a boycott of him!

[Sox75]

THE #1 PROBLEM in the U.S.?

HANDS DOWN! No matter who wins the election....

THE ECONOMY! End of story.

We have 1 Party, 100% supported by the msm, so committed to ginning up abject HYSTERIA over Covid to bring this economy down, because they think it will help in November.

We know who the VULNERABLE are, but actually protecting the elderly and infirmed is OBVIOUSLY NOT the priority for your average Liberal Progressive. When you point out how many, 7,500 in NY, were killed by Dem policies in LTCF's it's obvious they don't give a shit.

So, it's not lives they really care about. When you ask them why School Districts in ZERO Covid DEATH COUNTIES should not go back to the classroom? They say it wouldn't be fair. ZERO SCIENCE.

I'm not sure I've ever seen such hysteria before? It is absolutely unhinged, and removed from reality.
When you ask them about the REAL LIVES being destroyed by this economic shut down, and the hysterical cries for new shut downs, it's clear they don't give a shit. They want schools to stay shut down to continue keeping parents from returning to work.

Those LOVING THIS? Those in government, or any government related job. They know THEY will get paid, and there is very little real concern for those in the private sector getting pummeled. They honestly don't give a shit.

There is no science supporting the shut down of schools. There is virtually no SIGNIFICANT RISK to kids. They don't care. They want the economic pain to be felt by all, and it's becoming clear to most. Sure! You will never make an impact with your buddy "working" from home for the state Dept. of Transportation. He's getting paid. He's loving life, & has less stress than ever before. He's a Dem, and he's all in on bringing it all down to get rid of Trump.

The hysteria & knowing destruction of this country is like nothing I've ever imagined. Add to that, the HYSTERICAL & indiscriminate racial politics with BLM, which is clearly being used to divide this country?

We are in the perfect storm, and most have no idea where this ends.

They are willing to let ALL OUR KIDS hang fire, sit at home for another full year, if they can use it to destroy Trump.

The frightening thing? These HYSTERICAL Liberal Progressives have convinced themselves that they don't need science to support continued school shutdowns. They just care more than you. They know it, & that's all they need. Telling all African Americans that they are victims? Will it help their lives? NOPE! Doesn't matter. They care more than you. The economy is collapsing. It doesn't matter! They care more.

We have lost our collective fucking minds!

Trump 2020? I'm not excited about that!

Democrats taking full control of both Houses of Congress, and the WH? ABSOLUTELY TERRIFYING!

[a700hitter]

THE #1 PROBLEM in the U.S.?

HANDS DOWN! No matter who wins the election....

THE ECONOMY! End of story.

We have 1 Party, 100% supported by the msm, so committed to ginning up abject HYSTERIA over Covid to bring this economy down, because they think it will help in November.

We know who the VULNERABLE are, but actually protecting the elderly and infirmed is OBVIOUSLY NOT the priority for your average Liberal Progressive. When you point out how many, 7,500 in NY, were killed by Dem policies in LTCF's it's obvious they don't give a shit.

So, it's not lives they really care about. When you ask them why School Districts in ZERO Covid DEATH COUNTIES should not go back to the classroom? They say it wouldn't be fair. ZERO SCIENCE.

I'm not sure I've ever seen such hysteria before? It is absolutely unhinged, and removed from reality.
When you ask them about the REAL LIVES being destroyed by this economic shut down, and the hysterical cries for new shut downs, it's clear they don't give a shit. They want schools to stay shut down to continue keeping parents from returning to work.

Those LOVING THIS? Those in government, or any government related job. They know THEY will get paid, and there is very little real concern for those in the private sector getting pummeled. They honestly don't give a shit.

There is no science supporting the shut down of schools. There is virtually no SIGNIFICANT RISK to kids. They don't care. They want the economic pain to be felt by all, and it's becoming clear to most. Sure! You will never make an impact with your buddy "working" from home for the state Dept. of Transportation. He's getting paid. He's loving life, & has less stress than ever before. He's a Dem, and he's all in on bringing it all down to get rid of Trump.

The hysteria & knowing destruction of this country is like nothing I've ever imagined. Add to that, the HYSTERICAL & indiscriminate racial politics with BLM, which is clearly being used to divide this country?

We are in the perfect storm, and most have no idea where this ends.

They are willing to let ALL OUR KIDS hang fire, sit at home for another full year, if they can use it to destroy Trump.

The frightening thing? These HYSTERICAL Liberal Progressives have convinced themselves that they don't need science to support continued school shutdowns. They just care more than you. They know it, & that's all they need. Telling all African Americans that they are victims? Will it help their lives? NOPE! Doesn't matter. They care more than you. The economy is collapsing. It doesn't matter! They care more.

We have lost our collective fucking minds!

Trump 2020? I'm not excited about that!

Democrats taking full control of both Houses of Congress, and the WH? ABSOLUTELY TERRIFYING!

Today, #KillerCuomo said that he would not use the kids as guinea pigs. He's every bit the insincere demagogue that his father was. He is willing to treat the children as sacrificial lambs. He knows that closing the schools will cause harm to the psychological, social and educational development of the children. That is irrefutable, but he his is willing to inflict those casualties on the children with no science backing up the necessity for such action. Not only is there no compelling evidence that a school shutdown is necessary for health reasons, but there is evidence and statistics to the contrary and that body of evidence is increasing in other countries that reopened their schools. #KillerCuomo is willing to sacrifice the school children for the sake of support by the teachers union.

[a700hitter]

"...we focused on whether the evidence was sufficient to charge any member of the campaign with taking part in a criminal conspiracy. It was not.”

Insufficient evidence. In other word, they had no evidence establishing a conspiracy, exactly as I said.

[moonslav59]

Insufficient evidence. In other word, they had no evidence establishing a conspiracy, exactly as I said.

Insufficient is not the same as none.

You need a lot of evidence, including proving motive, to have "sufficient" evidence.

Like I said, it's possible they had absolutely no evidence, but the statement is ambiguous as to whether there was none, some or a lot, but just not enough to be sufficient.

It sounded to me like they had some but were lacking in enough to be sufficient.

You most certainly did not say "insufficient." You said "no evidence," but spin as you do. Cry "semantics," but the two terms are not interchangeable.

[Sox75]

Insufficient is not the same as none.

You need a lot of evidence, including proving motive, to have "sufficient" evidence.

Like I said, it's possible they had absolutely no evidence, but the statement is ambiguous as to whether there was none, some or a lot, but just not enough to be sufficient.

It sounded to me like they had some but were lacking in enough to be sufficient.

You most certainly did not say "insufficient." You said "no evidence," but spin as you do. Cry "semantics," but the two terms are not interchangeable.

FAR MORE IMPORTANT.....

What we already have is MORE THAN SUFFICIENT evidence that Obama was fully briefed on everything his FBI, DOJ, & CIA were doing to set up, spy on, & take out Trump in 2016.

Sure! We know it as FACT now, but only a fool, a tool, or a 100% partisan moron would not already know that the SITTING PRESIDENT would have to be briefed on the most significant counter-intelligence operation in recent memory.

Of course Obama knew, and we know he lied when Trump first raised the concern that his campaign was spied on.

Now.... For the idiots who don't understand the historic significance of this, please allow me to break down what should be obvious. Especially for those of us who grew up on Watergate.

Obama's FBI FUNNELED known HRC paid for, Steele mined & manufactured, Russian disinformation, through their system, to the FISA courts, to acquire warrants to spy on members associated with the Trump campaign.

This is not just big, it far eclipses Watergate.

Obama KNOWINGLY signed off on spying on the campaign of the other Party, to set them up, take Trump out, and ensure the victory for his legacy presidency.

They knowingly lied to the FISA Courts, in order to continue spying. When they couldn't manufacture enough dirt, they figured they'd use it as "an insurance policy," in case he won.

again... for morons who can't understand the obvious.... I'll quote old Joe Biden. "This was a very fucking BIG DEAL."

NEVER BEFORE IN OUR GREAT HISTORY has an administration used the AWESOME POWER of the FBI, DOJ, CIA, & likely the NSA and other supremely powerful government agencies for such a highly political and HISTORIC investigation. Certainly never to actually target and take down political campaign for POTUS.

* So why has President Obama continued to lie about this?

WHY? SERIOUSL? Of course he lied, and he did so for good reason. Admitting he knowingly implicitly allowed an investigation of a rival campaign for obvious political reasons would forever tarnish his legacy. Besides.... Why tell the truth when the msm has your back 100%.
Christ.... He could actually say he knew about every step of the way, and the media would cover his ass all the way.

Still.... Make no mistake! This was an historic and unprecedented event in U.S. history! The msm will cover every bit up, and justify the rest.

LOL :0 Moon will deny it like he must the moon landing.... but it remains a fact. there is no debating whether it happened, as we know it did. Obama will deny it likely forever. Still, we know it happened, and we know Obama had to be fully briefed on a matter of such grave national importance.

So.... for guys like Moon, Freddy Lynn, & others, they don't believe it if HUFFPO doesn't report on it. They will go on squealing about bullshit and hysterical cries about "RUSSIA COLLUSION" for the rest of their lives.... Sane politicos know what happened. It was in fact THE POLITICAL SCANDAL of the century. We can't make the MSM report honestly, so this scandal never grows legs

What is beginning to take shape? The country is beginning to understand just how far Liberal Progressives are willing to go. They are beginning to understand that these UnAmerican Liberal Progressives are willing to tear down this country & give it over to the radical BLM & ANTIFA types, for political gain.

THE SILENT MAJORITY is quietly rising, and they will be heard from in November. You thought you heard it all in 2016? Guess again? You leave us no choice! It's you vs. the country, and we will not allow it to be taken down without a fight. This fight is on! It will be quiet, but you will hear us roar in November!

For the

[cp176]

Unless the left steals the election through voter fraud with vote by mail, Donald Trump will win in November. The silent majority in this country are not stupid. They know you can't say anything now because the left and the media will try to cancel you but no one is in the voting booth but them. I am also sure protesters (i.e. thugs) will try to prevent conservatives from voting. The silent majority will speak in November like they did in 2016.

I think that you could be right about the silent majority. Many I think realize that it has been a non-stop assault for 3 and half years on a sitting president by the democratic party. What haven't they attacked to date? What else is left? it is likely that due to the shame political movement that keeps rolling along, that there will be many voters who will tell no one which way they will be voting until they enter that booth. I just hope that the fate of our country is not decided by the major metroplitan areas of our country. Thank goodness for the wisdom of our founding fathers on this one.