This is where, I think, we really need to trust Bloom, since bullpens are a Tampa speciality. The Rays became contenders rotating relievers -- just last year, they traded their number one opener for an even better reliever, then last winter they traded their closer when he was still good.
https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/...es-aaron-judge
For Barnes, it’s not overly complicated as he is essentially a two-pitch guy with his curveball and his fastball. Last year he started throwing his curveball more than his fastball for the first time, and he’s taken it even further so far this year with his curveball being thrown 60 percent of the time, per Baseball Savant. That could be part of the issue, but the fastball is down in velocity by about a mile and a half per hour. Also, both pitches are being crushed by whatever metric you would like to look at. Whether it’s wOBA or expected wOBA or whiff rate or average exit velocity or hard hit rate. Both pitches are way worse than they were a year ago.
With that, it’s possible that the increase in curveball usage contributed here, but it sure seems like there’s more than that going on. So, the next thing I looked at was where he was throwing his pitches. My assumption based on how hard he was being hit was that everything would be over the heart of the plate. But that’s not exactly the case.
With the curveball, he simply isn’t throwing the pitch for strikes as often, and he’s also favoring his glove side a bit more. We saw what happens when one of those are left up against Aaron Judge. With the fastball things are even more jarring, as he’s almost totally to the glove side. So, with both of his pitches, he is overwhelmingly favoring one side of the dish.
My initial thought was that his release point was messed up, but nothing I saw in that data indicated a major issue. Instead, it just seems he’s missing location. In the home run for Céspedes, for example, the target was on the outer half but it ended up as a fastball middle-in. We hear a lot when people talk about pitching that the idea is to change the hitter’s eyes. That’s up and down, but it’s also side to side. When you’re in a rut like Barnes where you’re throwing so much on one half of the plate, the opponent can focus in there and do big-time damage.