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Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

  1. #811
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I actually am. To a point.

    Bauer might wind up getting a contract like Priceís. And like Priceís deal, it will work out the first couple seasons.

    Iím not so sure Realmuto commands a 7 year deal. He might, but catchers typically donít get anywhere near that. Even 5 is almost unheard of.

    But Realmuto is no ordinary catcher. Heís a former shortstop turned catcher who, in the event his deal is too long, would probably still be able to handle a corner INF or corner OF position adequately.

    Five years? A no-brainer. 6 or 7 starts giving me pause...
    It's already being speculated that the Phillies are willing to go 6 years at an AAV of about $23 million. I would not try to match or beat that. I'm hesitant to do even 5 years. I would love to have him on our team, but I think it's going to take 6 or 7 years.

    We'll see. Maybe the market just won't be there.

  2. #812
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    My point was that people here seem to think trading Eovaldi is nuts, but when we speak of his value to other teams, he's worthless (actually negative).

    Same thing with Price. Many hated that we traded him away and paid half his salary... like he's worth $15M a year (about what Eovaldi is being paid).
    Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

    If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.

  3. #813
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

    If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.
    Look at my suggested Rangers offer:

    Eovaldi, Vaz & Chavis
    for
    Odor -26, LeClerc 16.8, Taveras 12.6 & Hernandez C-1B minors
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  4. #814
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Trading Eovaldi and not getting starting pitching back is nuts. The suggestion to swap bad contracts with Odor is nuts.

    If Eovaldi can be packaged with another player or players so that we upgrade in the pitching department, it might make sense.
    Also, a straight up trade of Eovaldi for Odor would save us about $9M a year. Add that to the money we were planning on spending for pitchers and the upgrade could work out.

    If Eovaldi keeps getting hurt, we lose nothing.
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  5. #815
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    It's already being speculated that the Phillies are willing to go 6 years at an AAV of about $23 million. I would not try to match or beat that. I'm hesitant to do even 5 years. I would love to have him on our team, but I think it's going to take 6 or 7 years.

    We'll see. Maybe the market just won't be there.
    I understand your hesitancy to sign big contracts, but every ring we've ever won was dependent on at least one large and long contract- usually 2-3.
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  6. #816
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I understand your hesitancy to sign big contracts, but every ring we've ever won was dependent on at least one large and long contract- usually 2-3.
    I don't like long contracts any more than Kimmi. Between the long expensive contracts and the damage to our minors we have put ourselves in the yo-yo position. Bloom is aiming to make us more consistently good. So far, he has made mainly positive moves despite being put in a tough negotiating position.

    We have a solid draft position coming, we have a group of players to cherry pick from and then to try to get some value in trades of the rest and we have considerable financial resources to bring to bear. 2021 should put us in a position to compete and we may be able to become very competitive in 2022.

  7. #817
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    I don't like long contracts any more than Kimmi. Between the long expensive contracts and the damage to our minors we have put ourselves in the yo-yo position. Bloom is aiming to make us more consistently good. So far, he has made mainly positive moves despite being put in a tough negotiating position.

    We have a solid draft position coming, we have a group of players to cherry pick from and then to try to get some value in trades of the rest and we have considerable financial resources to bring to bear. 2021 should put us in a position to compete and we may be able to become very competitive in 2022.
    I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

    Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.
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  8. #818
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

    Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.
    Going from 20-34 to "over the top" is a tall order with a shallow starting rotation topped by three question marks.

    Or not.

  9. #819
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm all for building up the farm, but there comes a time when a big deal is needed to put a team over the top.

    Can teams win without doing that? Yes, but we never have.
    2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.

  10. #820
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.
    I never said to win it all in 2021.

    Why would signing someone to a long deal, this winter, be only about winning in 2021?

    I'm not saying we should or will sign a big name, but we do want to get better in 2021 without harming our chances in 2022 and beyond. If we can find one key piece, this winter, why put it off?

    Maybe Bloom doesn't see a keeper, and puts it off. I'm fine with that and trust he knows what he's doing.
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  11. #821
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    2021 is not the year a big deal would put us over the top. Our current team has gaping holes not dissimilar to swiss cheese.
    The Red Sox have lost Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello, David Price, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and Brandon Workman from a 2019 club that won 84 games. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi have question marks. The prognoses for Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez are unclear and Jackie Bradley Jr. may depart as a free agent.

    Chaim Bloom has done admirable job landing Alex Verdugo and Martin Perez (not to mention Kevin Plawecki, Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz). Despite flashes from Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck, Bloom has a long ways to go to reach the talent level of the 2019 team.
    Last edited by harmony; 09-20-2020 at 09:14 PM.

  12. #822
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I never said to win it all in 2021.

    Why would signing someone to a long deal, this winter, be only about winning in 2021?

    I'm not saying we should or will sign a big name, but we do want to get better in 2021 without harming our chances in 2022 and beyond. If we can find one key piece, this winter, why put it off?

    Maybe Bloom doesn't see a keeper, and puts it off. I'm fine with that and trust he knows what he's doing.
    Why waste an expensive acquisition's first year deal on a mediocre team? Do you have someone in mind that you want to give a 5-7 deal to at the end of this year? Name a free agent that will get us over the hump? Just curious Moon.

  13. #823
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Why waste an expensive acquisition's first year deal on a mediocre team? Do you have someone in mind that you want to give a 5-7 deal to at the end of this year? Name a free agent that will get us over the hump? Just curious Moon.
    No, I don't, and my original statement was about Bloom possibly identifying someone he thinks can be a big value for the longterm. I don't pretend to know more than him, and I trust he is a good evaluator. Maybe he doesn't see anyone like that on this winter's FA list, but if he does, I don't see why waiting another year helps.

    We likely need 2-3 pretty big named players or under the radar types that become big additions. My thoughts are about the idea that waiting to get them all at once might be harder than picking up the players we really want when they become available. Maybe it's one a year for 3 years, none this year, 2 next year and 1 in 2023.

    I'm just thinking we have the budget space, and if Bloom sees someone he likes, this winter, I'd say go for it.

    Personally, I'm not high on Bauer, Realmuto or Springer, but if Bloom likes one and goes for it, I won't judge him harshly, except maybe in hindsight. His plan may be to sign some very decent FAs, but not the big 3 or 4. He may have to sign them to 3-5 year deals at pretty decent numbers. Spreading the risk makes sense, and keeping the deals under 4-5 years does, too, but who knows who we can get on non long term deals.

    Again, any big signing or addition we make this winter would not be about winning it all in 2021. It would be about the longer term with the added bonus of making us more fun to watch in 2021 and maybe even competing for a playoff slot.
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  14. #824
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    The Red Sox have lost Mookie Betts, Rick Porcello, David Price, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt and Brandon Workman from a 2019 club that won 84 games. Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi have question marks. The prognoses for Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez are unclear and Jackie Bradley Jr. may depart as a free agent.

    Chaim Bloom has done admirable job landing Alex Verdugo and Martin Perez (not to mention Kevin Plawecki, Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz). Despite flashes from Bobby Dalbec and Tanner Houck, Bloom has a long ways to go to reach the talent level of the 2019 team.
    Replacing some of the names on the list of 2019 departees is addition by subtraction.

    I'm not expecting a ring in 2021, but 2022 is not out of the question, if we spend up to the limit line and maybe the over it for 2022. (We also lose Pedey's deal after 2021.) We could be looking at $80-100M/yr we can spend on FAs over the next 2 years. If Bloom is as thrifty as we think he can be, that's a lot of added talent to put with Devers, JD, a healthy Sale (2022), Bogey, Vaz, and maybe Eovaldi. We'd only need a few of our players & farm hands to play key roles- maybe DHern, Dalbec, Houck, Arroyo/Munoz/Downs/Chavis, among others.
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #825
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Agreed. At best, we may see this:

    $25M/yr SP
    $15M Closer
    $13M/yr SP
    $7M RP
    $6M CF
    $4M SP

    $70M total - still under the tax

    We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.
    An overreliance on free agent contracts could hamstring a franchise for years ... unless the team can flip the players for prospects when the club falls out of contention.

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