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Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

  1. #1
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

    This may be the soonest Iíve ever started this yearly thread. Our 2020 team is on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history. It was not really unexpected. The cliff was real, and it is here, now. That being said, I think we have a pretty solid core to build around, and if Henry opens the checkbook, this winter, we may be able to turn this around much more quickly than many expect it might take.

    Our 40 man roster is about the weakest from 20-40 as Iíve ever seen, but our farm improved a little with the Betts trade and some growth by a few of our prospects. Iím not seeing much help for 2021 from the farm, however. Most of our best prospects are 1.5 to 3+ years away.

    Here is a breakdown of what we are looking at for 2021 (and beyond):

    Budget in Lux Tax Dollars:
    25.0 Sale
    22.0 JD
    20.0 Bogey
    17.0 Eovaldi
    16.0 Price ($ to LAD)
    13.8 Pedroia
    5.00 Beni
    4.51 Vaz

    Options:
    6.25 Perez ($500K buyout)
    3.0 Moreland ($500K buyout)

    ARB Players (2020 pay)
    8.3 ERod -last arb
    3.0 Barnes -last arb
    2.9 Peraza -2 arbs left
    1.61 Hembree -last arb
    0.90 Plawecki - 2 more
    0.85 J Osich -2 more
    0.70 D Covey -3 more
    0.69 DEVERS -1st of 3 left
    0.58 Brasier -1st of 3 left
    0.57 Brice -1st of 3 left

    Free Agents after 2020:
    11.0 JBJ
    4.25 Pillar
    3.50 Workman

    Cots Estimated Luxury Tax Total for 2021: $141.6M
    ($68.4M under the threshold).

    Assuming all options are given and all arb players are kept, here is what we are looking at for 2021:

    40 Man Roster
    C: Vazquez, Plawecki
    1B: Moreland, Chavis
    2B: Peraza, Arauz, Pedroia (60 day IL)
    3B: Devers, Dalbec, C Arroyo
    SS: Bogaerts, Chatham, Lin
    LF: Benintendi
    CF: (Acquisition)/Duran is rule 5 after 2021
    RF: Verdugo
    DH: Martinez
    SP: Sale (60 day IL), Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, Weber, Godley
    SP: Mazza, Shawaryn, Hart, Stock
    RP: Barnes, D Hern, Taylor, Hembree, Walden, Osich, Valdez, Brice
    RP: Hall, Covey, Gonsalves, Springs
    Possible Rule 5 additions: Mata, Downs, Houck, C Wong

    Iíd say our top priority, positional acquisitions might be:
    SP (Ace)
    SP (strong #3 type)
    Closer
    CF
    RP
    RP
    4th OF
    SP depth

    Projected 26 Man Roster:
    C: Vaz & Plawecki
    1B: Moreland & Dalbec (Chavis traded)
    2B: Peraza & Arauz
    3B: Devers & Arroyo
    SS: Bogey
    LF: Beni
    CF: _____
    RF: Verdugo
    DH: JD
    SP: ______, Eovaldi, ERod, _____, Perez
    RP: ______, Barnes, _____, DHern, Hembree, _____, Walden

    Let the discussion begin...
    Sox 4 Ever

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    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    If we trade Barnes & Hembree, we'll have over $70M to spend this winter, and stay under the Lux Tax. If we are okay with going over by less than $20M, we could have about $92M to spend.

    $25M/yr SP
    $15M Closer
    $13M/yr SP
    $10M CF
    $10M RP
    $7M SP

    $80M total
    Sox 4 Ever

  3. #3
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    The clearcut strength of the 2021 Red Sox will be the utility infielder position. With Peraza, Lin, Arroyo, Yairo Munoz, Arausz, and CJ Chatham all in the mix for that one spot.

    It might be nice if one of them can step up and take over 2B...

  4. #4
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    While their values are equal on baseballtradevalues.com, I think it would be smarter to deal Dalbec over Chavis. Chavis is etablishing himself nicely into the weak side platoon at 1B, and is probably not an everyday player. Dalbec, on the other hand, probably has some more appeal around the league as a potential starting 3B, and, unlike Chavis, has yet to disprove he can handle the role. Why hand that role over to Dalbec when Chavis is actually handling it nicely and has somehow come close to being an actual bright spot on this abysmal team?

    Maybe he can get a decent arm for Dalbec, even if it is a pen arm. Or a CF. (Dalbec to St. Louis for Harrison Bader? Dalbec to Tampa for Randy Arozarena?) The wildest of wild cards might be to move Dalbec to the OF, but I don't consider that to be all that likely...

  5. #5
    Itís going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

    The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when itís highly possible the guys being drafted havenít played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, itís certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. Youíve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    It’s going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

    The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when it’s highly possible the guys being drafted haven’t played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, it’s certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. You’ve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss
    They could also extend ERod, assuming he is ever healthy enough to pitch again...

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    This may be the soonest I’ve ever started this yearly thread. Our 2020 team is on pace for the worst winning percentage in team history. It was not really unexpected. The cliff was real, and it is here, now. That being said, I think we have a pretty solid core to build around, and if Henry opens the checkbook, this winter, we may be able to turn this around much more quickly than many expect it might take.

    Our 40 man roster is about the weakest from 20-40 as I’ve ever seen, but our farm improved a little with the Betts trade and some growth by a few of our prospects. I’m not seeing much help for 2021 from the farm, however. Most of our best prospects are 1.5 to 3+ years away.

    Here is a breakdown of what we are looking at for 2021 (and beyond):

    Budget in Lux Tax Dollars:
    25.0 Sale
    22.0 JD
    20.0 Bogey
    17.0 Eovaldi
    16.0 Price ($ to LAD)
    13.8 Pedroia
    5.00 Beni
    4.51 Vaz

    Options:
    6.25 Perez ($500K buyout)
    3.0 Moreland ($500K buyout)

    ARB Players (2020 pay)
    8.3 ERod -last arb
    3.0 Barnes -last arb
    2.9 Peraza -2 arbs left
    1.61 Hembree -last arb
    0.90 Plawecki - 2 more
    0.85 J Osich -2 more
    0.70 D Covey -3 more
    0.69 DEVERS -1st of 3 left
    0.58 Brasier -1st of 3 left
    0.57 Brice -1st of 3 left

    Free Agents after 2020:
    11.0 JBJ
    4.25 Pillar
    3.50 Workman

    Cots Estimated Luxury Tax Total for 2021: $141.6M
    ($68.4M under the threshold).

    Assuming all options are given and all arb players are kept, here is what we are looking at for 2021:

    40 Man Roster
    C: Vazquez, Plawecki
    1B: Moreland, Chavis
    2B: Peraza, Arauz, Pedroia (60 day IL)
    3B: Devers, Dalbec, C Arroyo
    SS: Bogaerts, Chatham, Lin
    LF: Benintendi
    CF: (Acquisition)/Duran is rule 5 after 2021
    RF: Verdugo
    DH: Martinez
    SP: Sale (60 day IL), Eovaldi, ERod, Perez, Weber, Godley
    SP: Mazza, Shawaryn, Hart, Stock
    RP: Barnes, D Hern, Taylor, Hembree, Walden, Osich, Valdez, Brice
    RP: Hall, Covey, Gonsalves, Springs
    Possible Rule 5 additions: Mata, Downs, Houck, C Wong

    I’d say our top priority, positional acquisitions might be:
    SP (Ace)
    SP (strong #3 type)
    Closer
    CF
    RP
    RP
    4th OF
    SP depth

    Projected 26 Man Roster:
    C: Vaz & Plawecki
    1B: Moreland & Dalbec (Chavis traded)
    2B: Peraza & Arauz
    3B: Devers & Arroyo
    SS: Bogey
    LF: Beni
    CF: _____
    RF: Verdugo
    DH: JD
    SP: ______, Eovaldi, ERod, _____, Perez
    RP: ______, Barnes, _____, DHern, Hembree, _____, Walden

    Let the discussion begin...

    First of all, it is not too early to talk about 2021. The 2020 season is toast as we knew it would be only worse, due to the unexpected loss of E-Rod, D-Hern and Walden. And MLBB, who took action to force the change of Manager. Congratulations on putting together a comprehensive and reasonable of players with your expectations of who will return, be traded and where our glaring holes will be. No doubt Bloom and the Sox staff have a similar list being developed and if they are smart, which I believe they are, they have a budget in mind for every position.


    The 26 man roster:
    C I agree
    1B I agree again although we may be trading one low average masher for another
    2B I like Arauz and we have Downs in the wings (maybe for 2022), I am ambivalent with Peraza. These guys offer flexibility for short and possibly 3rd but if Arroyo works out do we need both?
    3B Definitely Devers but Arroyo is a crap shoot.
    SS I agree
    LF I am not sold on Beni (average defender, no power, questionable hitter). Could we do better? We made excuses for JBJ over the years due to his defense. Is Beni JBJ2 without the defense?
    CF We won't resign JBJ and Duran may be capable, but more likely we need to look for a trade or through FA.
    RF I agree
    DH JDM is probably with us for 2021, unless an unlikely trade takes place. If it does, DH can be filled for less money. I don't expect a championship year so why spend big at that position?
    SP I agree. Perhaps we can fill one starter from the minors which makes a search of the FA markets likely. Please, no big long term contracts for 2021.
    RP I don't expect Barnes back so we need a couple from our prospects and some in trade or from FAs.

    Acquisitions: CF, LF, (possible Duran for one of those or 4th outfielder, SP (Ace), possible 3rd although can we promote a prospect? Closer as Workman is probably gone. Stock the minors with quality prospects through the draft and from trades.

    Manager: No manager could make the existing 2020 crew a competitive team and yet I think a young manager and some new coaches are needed.

    What cash will be available sounds like the equivalent of the total Rays budget for the year. Lets hope Bloom will continue to be clever in his acquisitions as he was with the Rays.

  8. #8
    I expect rebounds from all the regulars who won a ring just two years ago. However, I don't expect all the rebounds to happen in '21 nor for the Red Sox. The ancient phrase "change of scenery" may be relevant, especially for guys that went from the penthouse to the outhouse. Going somewhere new, joining a new group still hungry, has a way of reigniting the competitive fires, with the added incentive to prove you can still do it (especially, for those on the verge on bigger paydays).

    For those same reasons, Boston may be well-served to bring in new blood: at manager, coaches and roster.

  9. #9
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    If the Sox can reset and spend a little, they could fill some gaps through free agency. Some names that appeal to me

    SP: Trevor Bauer is the obvious target. He'll cost and have some sort of evil long term contract, but the Sox need arms. Fallback options include Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray. Beyond that, some depth signings with some intrigue include Mike Minor and Jake Odirizzi. Outside of Bauer, none of these are real game changers. Garrett Richards is a mega talent who would probably be better off moving to closer.

    RP. Weak year for RP, but Kirby Yates, Ken Giles, Keone Kela, Trevor May and Liam Hendriks. Chris Devenski is a reasonably good non-closer who is available.

    2B: Assuming the Sox do not try to solve this in-house from the Utility Infielder Crowd, Cesar Hernandez is a very underrated player. Jonathan Schoop will be available again this year, like he is every year, and is apparently a very good friend of Xander Bogaerts. Jonathan Villar has become a useful player as well, which no one saw coming.

    CF: Springer is the headliner and only real game changer, but maybe that money is better spent on pitching. Beyond him, the best options are the players Boston is losing, in Bradley and Pillar. Sox are probably better off avoiding Springer, as he is likely to be one of the two biggest draws in this class (along with Bauer).

    OF: Now the Sox could move on a corner OF and switch Benintendi to CF, which is not anyone's wish on this forum. But if that happens, Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos (if he opts out) become the bigger names. Joc Pederson would also be available, but unless someone gives him a chance to learn to hit LHP, the interest should be limited. I suppose either Ozuna or Pederson are as capable in CF as Benintendi...

  10. #10
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Bloom: ďA lot of work to doĒ. Thatís an understatement.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...am-lot-work-do
    The King of TalkSox has Spoken.

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  11. #11
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Itís going to be really hard to compete in 2021 with what the Sox have. My bet is they add to the SP via a FA acquisition as Sale insurance. I also assume ERod ends up a deadline trade casualty as he really cannot be dealt in 2020 and is only under contract for one more season.

    The biggest acquisition the Sox will make will be via the draft. Strange times when itís highly possible the guys being drafted havenít played college or high school baseball in over a year. But the Sox should have a top 5 pick, and with some deadline attrition, itís certainly possible the Sox have a top 2 pick. Youíve got a shot at a generational talent, and you cannot miss
    We could spend a ton of money, this winter and get more than just a SP'er.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    We could spend a ton of money, this winter and get more than just a SP'er.
    For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

    Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

    I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

    Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

    I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.
    When Dombrowski was running the Tigers, he had a rotation that included the last three Cy Young winners (Scherzer,, Price and Verlander) at the time. And they started 3 straight postseason games against the Orioles and lost all three.

    Funny how those things turn out...
    Last edited by notin; 08-18-2020 at 01:11 PM.

  14. #14
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    For the paying customers and to the position players, GM must be able to put a starting pitcher that has reasonable ability to keep the team in a game, every day. Sure, there will be blowouts but that should work both ways.

    Getting the pitching staff under control has to be #1 priority for any legit baseball organization. You start there.

    I'll take 5 Cy Young winners with minor league lineup over good hitting team with this year's Sox starting pitching.
    Agreed. At best, we may see this:

    $25M/yr SP
    $15M Closer
    $13M/yr SP
    $7M RP
    $6M CF
    $4M SP

    $70M total - still under the tax

    We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Agreed. At best, we may see this:

    $25M/yr SP
    $15M Closer
    $13M/yr SP
    $7M RP
    $6M CF
    $4M SP

    $70M total - still under the tax

    We could add about $20M and stay under the second threshold.
    If the Sox reset, will they care about being under?

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