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Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

  1. #1651
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Friedman wouldn't give up Gonsolin to get Betts. Safe bet he won't do it to get Eovaldi and company.

    I think prying young pitching from the Dodgers is harder to do than prying a chocolate-covered meatloaf away from Pablo Sandoval...
    Probably right, but they are getting some young talent back.

    Here's one with SD:

    Eovaldi & Chavis
    for
    Myers and Lucchesi

    Myers is owed $41M/2 compared to Eovaldi's $34M/2, so they save $7M. Myers Lux hit is just $13M/yr, so we create $4M/yr on the tax budget. We get a pitcher we need.

    3 Way:

    To BOS: Castillo, Lucchesi, Mejia, Myers & Kiermaier

    To SD: Eovaldi, Chavis, Johnson

    To TB: Vazquez

    You'll love this one (sarcasm alert):

    To BOS: Anderson, Campusano, Myers, Kiermaier
    To SD: Eovaldi, Dalbec, Ryan
    To TB: Vazquez, Beni, Duran, Chavis

    Sox 4 Ever

  2. #1652
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Friedman wouldn't give up Gonsolin to get Betts. Safe bet he won't do it to get Eovaldi and company.

    I think prying young pitching from the Dodgers is harder to do than prying a chocolate-covered meatloaf away from Pablo Sandoval...
    Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.

  3. #1653
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.
    We should have thought of the nickname "Pabloaf" way back when.
    Sox 4 Ever

  4. #1654
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's one BTV shows is an exactly even swap:

    Eovaldi, Chavis & Jimenez
    for
    Pollock and Gray (good young pitcher)

    Plollock is owed $36M/2 assuming option not taken on 3rd year or $41M/3 otherwise. His AVV is "only" $12M, which is $5M less than Eovaldi's. So, the Dodgers save $2M, but our lux tax budget is $5M lower for the next 2 years.

    We get a good young pitcher and a decent CF'er that fills a gaping hole.LA has OF depth to take Pollock's slot, and they get a SP'er and a couple other players with promise.

    I'd guess LA would say no, but I'm sure many here think the deal is bad for us.
    And the Dodgers would add to their luxury tax calculation.

    The Dodgers, who gave out a 12-year, $365 million contract, probably have more luxury tax concerns than the Red Sox.

  5. #1655
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.
    According to Pablo, a chocolate loaf is a mere appetizer..

  6. #1656
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    And the Dodgers would add to their luxury tax calculation.

    The Dodgers, who gave out a 12-year, $365 million contract, probably have more luxury tax concerns than the Red Sox.
    The tax probably balances out the $2M they save on actual contract cost. (20% of $5M is $1M x 2 years is $2M.)

    Here's another one:

    Eovaldi & Chavis
    for
    Odor, Trevino, Taveras & Palumbo

    Sox 4 Ever

  7. #1657
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The tax probably balances out the $2M they save on actual contract cost. (20% of $5M is $1M x 2 years is $2M.)

    Here's another one:

    Eovaldi & Chavis
    for
    Odor, Trevino, Taveras & Palumbo

    I don't get a the kick out of proposing trades that you seem to. I expect Bloom has many possibilities in front of him and ultimately, he will make the decision. His guidelines have been stated and they are to make the team consistently competitive at a high level. Since we are going from non-competitive in 2020, I am willing to give him time to achieve his vision for the team. What the Rays have achieved gives some insight into his approach, although with the Sox, he should have additional resources.

    My hope is that he will be willing to get rid of poor performers no matter that they might be fan favorites. He did it with Betts, who was a great performer for us but his salary demands and length of contract did not fit the long term vision The Betts deal indicates to me that Bloom will make moves that are necessary. We will see the first round with FAs after the WS is completed.

  8. #1658
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    I don't get a the kick out of proposing trades that you seem to. I expect Bloom has many possibilities in front of him and ultimately, he will make the decision. His guidelines have been stated and they are to make the team consistently competitive at a high level. Since we are going from non-competitive in 2020, I am willing to give him time to achieve his vision for the team. What the Rays have achieved gives some insight into his approach, although with the Sox, he should have additional resources.

    My hope is that he will be willing to get rid of poor performers no matter that they might be fan favorites. He did it with Betts, who was a great performer for us but his salary demands and length of contract did not fit the long term vision The Betts deal indicates to me that Bloom will make moves that are necessary. We will see the first round with FAs after the WS is completed.
    I doubt Bloom makes a deal similar to what I have been suggesting, recently. I think I've just about run out of these types of suggested deals.

    I do think Bloom will make 2-3 trades, although some might be minor.

    Some of his free agent signings might be head-scratchers, but I think he makes a few we mostly will like.
    Sox 4 Ever

  9. #1659
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

    $200M/7 Bauer
    $185M/6 Realmuto
    $150M/6 Springer
    $140M/6 Stroman
    $90M/4 LeMahieu
    $85M/5 Semien
    $45M/3 Brantley
    $25M/2 Turner
    $15M/1 N Cruz


    Sox 4 Ever

  10. #1660
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    The Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 World Series trips after losing their previous 4 WS all by 4-3 margins.

    The Sox went 16-3 in those 4 series, not losing a cumulative number of games to lose even one series!

    Another interesting fact about once you make the playoffs, it's a "crap shoot." Not so much for the Sox since 2004. We've made the playoffs 9 times and won it all in 4 of them!

    Of the 5 times we did not win it all, we only made the ALCS, once (and lost it 4-3). That 15 years stretch (2004-2018) was amazing. We made the playoffs 60% of the time and won it all 27% of the time- nearly one out of 3 years!

    We came close in 2003,losing the ALCS 4-3, so if you count 2003, we made the playoffs 10 out of 16 times (63%), the ALCS 6/16 (38%) and the WS 25% of the time.

    Let's hope Bloom sets us on the way for something similar to that!
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #1661
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

    $200M/7 Bauer
    $185M/6 Realmuto
    $150M/6 Springer
    $140M/6 Stroman
    $90M/4 LeMahieu
    $85M/5 Semien
    $45M/3 Brantley
    $25M/2 Turner
    $15M/1 N Cruz
    I'd rank these signings and numbers, in terms of who I'd sign as the Sox GM like this:
    1. Semien (not thrilled with this guys, but way cheaper than Bauer & Stroman)
    2. Brantley (not thrilled with signing a corner OF'er over CF, but the money seems better than others, here)
    3. Turner (move Devers to 1B and trade Dalbec?)
    4. Stroman (too expensive, but likely a better deal than Bauer)
    5, Bauer (close call)
    6. Springer (close but a no-go for me)
    7. LeMahieu (need a 2Bman but not at this cost)
    8. Cruz (don't need a DH)
    9. Realmuto (most catchers crash hard as they age)

    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #1662
    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Gotta lotta nerve using the words "Pablo" and "loaf" in the same sentence when it comes to chocolate.
    Elsewhere a poster wrote: "Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that."

    In response:

    Rafael Devers has posted an OPS+ of 115 and 8.2 fWAR in 392 games as he approaches his 24th birthday this week:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ra...ts?position=3B

    Pablo Sandoval posted and OPS+ of 122 and 7.3 fWAR in his first 346 games over three regular seasons that ended less than two months after his 24th birthday:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pa...ts?position=3B

    Over the those periods Devers posted at a rate of 2.10 fWAR per 100 games and Sandoval 2.11 fWAR per 100 games. Devers posted 6.1 bWAR and Sandoval 6.9 bWAR.

    FWIW Devers finished 12th in the AL MVP voting in his age 22 season while Sandoval finished seventh in the NL MVP voting in his age 22 season. Each contributed to a World Series title at a young age.

    The career paths of Devers and Sandoval may diverge but they had similar production in their early MLB careers.
    Last edited by harmony; Yesterday at 06:21 PM.

  13. #1663
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'd rank these signings and numbers, in terms of who I'd sign as the Sox GM like this:
    1. Semien (not thrilled with this guys, but way cheaper than Bauer & Stroman)
    2. Brantley (not thrilled with signing a corner OF'er over CF, but the money seems better than others, here)
    3. Turner (move Devers to 1B and trade Dalbec?)
    4. Stroman (too expensive, but likely a better deal than Bauer)
    5, Bauer (close call)
    6. Springer (close but a no-go for me)
    7. LeMahieu (need a 2Bman but not at this cost)
    8. Cruz (don't need a DH)
    9. Realmuto (most catchers crash hard as they age)

    If Bloom goes after a FA outfielder through trade or free agency, I would hope we would get someone with a little more consistent power. Verdugo should have right field sewed up and Duran or one of a couple of other prospects are capable of playing center so that leaves left field. I don't believe Chavis is a long term solution and Beni has very little pop even when hitting. Find a LF player.

  14. #1664
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    Elsewhere a poster wrote: "Devers is so much more talented then Panda is/was. Panda might have been pretty good, but Devers has MVP potential and has already proven that."

    In response:

    Rafael Devers has posted an OPS+ of 115 and 8.2 fWAR in 392 games as he approaches his 24th birthday this week:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ra...ts?position=3B

    Pablo Sandoval posted and OPS+ of 122 and 7.3 fWAR in his first 346 games over three regular seasons that ended less than two months after his 24th birthday:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/pa...ts?position=3B

    Over the those periods Devers posted at a rate of 2.10 fWAR per 100 games and Sandoval 2.11 fWAR per 100 games. Devers posted 6.1 bWAR and Sandoval 6.9 bWAR.

    FWIW Devers finished 12th in the AL MVP voting in his age 22 season while Sandoval finished seventh in the NL MVP voting in his age 22 season. Each contributed to a World Series title at a young age.

    The career paths of Devers and Sandoval may diverge but they had similar production in their early MLB careers.

    Now compare their weights at both ages.

    There is a reason they call him Kung Fu Panda Express...

  15. #1665
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    thegamehaus projects these FA contracts:

    $200M/7 Bauer
    $185M/6 Realmuto
    $150M/6 Springer
    $140M/6 Stroman
    $90M/4 LeMahieu
    $85M/5 Semien
    $45M/3 Brantley
    $25M/2 Turner
    $15M/1 N Cruz



    Bloom passes on all at those numbers. Except maybe Stroman...

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