A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

Is Cordero on the IL or C-19 list?

Right now, he's on the 10 day IL.

[oldtimer]

I'd go with 13 pitchers until April 15 or 16, when we are 4-5 games into a long stretch or no days off and after we have 2 days off in the first 9 days of the season.

We might go longer, depending on how deep we had to go into the pen over the first 2 weeks of the season. I can't see Brice and Brewer being overused by the 14th or 15th game of the season. Chances are even having just one of the two won't see overuse.

I never thought I'd hear myself says this, but I want Chavis on the opening day roster. (I also think we need Arroyo or Arauz, too.) IMO, the only argument against Chavis is Duran not Brewer, but I guess it is what it is.

We have a few guys that can go long innings in relief, in case a starter gets booted early a few times in the first 2 weeks. They can go long (3-4 IP) maybe 3-4 times in the first 14 days, so the one inning RP'ers should not be overused. If things fall apart, early, then make a roster move once you look to short-handed in the next game. These guys at the alternative site should be readily available and on-hand in less than 24 hours.

I too believe 13 pitchers are enough until at least mid April. That leaves room for 3 utility players and if Codero starts on the IL then M Gonzalez will likely start in LF. I'd say Arroyo and Chavis are locks and I would take Duran over Arauz. When Codero returns and they go to 14 pitchers, will it be Arroyo and Gonzalez? Tough call as Chavis is hitting so well.

[moonslav59]

I too believe 13 pitchers are enough until at least mid April. That leaves room for 3 utility players and if Codero starts on the IL then M Gonzalez will likely start in LF. I'd say Arroyo and Chavis are locks and I would take Duran over Arauz. When Codero returns and they go to 14 pitchers, will it be Arroyo and Gonzalez? Tough call as Chavis is hitting so well.

I think when Cordero returns, Chavis will be sent down.

Arroyo is out of options.

I don't think Marwin is sent down.

[Kimmi]

It's the 2 days off in the first 9 days and the following 4-5 games played afterwards brings the high need time to about 14 days into the season.

For years, teams have gotten by with 11-12 pitchers. 13 seemed like overkill.

Since you can't bring guys in for 1 batter, anymore, I doubt we'll need 14 pitchers. We also have a few guys who can go 2+ innings: DHern, Andriese, Sawamura and at times, Taylor, Valdez and Brice.

If someone gets hurt, bring up Houck or or someone else.

We have some issues with our non pitchers.

1) Our defense sucks in some areas and could benefit from late inning defensive replacements or switches.
2) We have some weak hitters vs certain handed pitchers, and having the ability to PH several times in a game could be worth more than keeping Valdez in the pen.
3) I've never been a big fan of Chavis, but he seems like he deserves a chance to prove himself once and for all. He's been hot, so let it ride.

All fair points, Moon.

I just don't think our starting pitchers are going to be pitching very deep into the games to start the season. I think we will need a lot of innings from the pen, and the last thing we want to do is overuse our relievers early in the season.

I also have confidence in our projected bench guys to be enough.

[Kimmi]

Arroyo and Munoz have been hitting well in ST too. Not sure the "hot hand" in Spring Training necessarily carries over.

The "hot hand", in general, doesn't carry over.

[moonslav59]

All fair points, Moon.

I just don't think our starting pitchers are going to be pitching very deep into the games to start the season. I think we will need a lot of innings from the pen, and the last thing we want to do is overuse our relievers early in the season.

I also have confidence in our projected bench guys to be enough.

9 pen arms of which 3 can go 3-5 IP every 3-5 days and another 3 can go 2-3 IP every 2-4 days.

Are we talking 1-3 IP by all our starters over the first 2 weeks?

Let's look at the first 12 games in 14 days and assume the starters average giving us a putrid 3 IP on average. That leaves 6 IP x 12 games in 14 days. That's 72 IP, which is a number that is likely significantly more than could ever be expected.

Let's start with the short relievers and go to longer ones. With 2 days off in the first 2 weeks, our 1 inning -mostly every other day guys, Barnes & Ottavino could both pitch in 8-9 games each. That's 17 IP from those two alone. That leaves 55 IP. Let's go to pitchers who can go 1-2 IP every other day or about 9-12 IP every 14 days. DHern, Sawamura, Taylor, Brice and Brewer/Valdez fit this profile. That's 5 pitchers x 10 IP= 50 total.That leaves 5 IP total, over 14 days, for our two long guys: Andriese & Whitlock. Together they could give 3-5 IP every 4-5 days or a total of 22-28 IP combined over those 14 days for a surplus on 17-23 innings from the pen.

I'm just not seeing us coming close to needing 9 pen arms.

If our starters are giving us 1-2 IP, we simply call up Houck or Valdez/Brewer or activate Brasier.