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Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

  1. #2521
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Yes, and if we trade Dalbec, we'd keep Chavis or maybe sign someone like Moreland.

    I'm curious if any GMs want Chavis enough to give us anything of value.
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values gives Michael Chavis a generous median surplus value of $7.5million (perhaps incorrectly listing Chavis with four years of team control when Chavis has just one year and 164 days of MLB service, making him a likely Super Two next offseason if he plays the entire 2021 season at the MLB level).

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7875/

    As a point of reference, Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $4.0 million to Seattle infielder Shed Long, who was born the same month as Chavis and who has five years of team control.

    Both players bombed this year after each posted 0.7 fWAR in impressive 2019 debuts, Chavis in 95 games and Long in 42 games. This year Chavis posted a negative 0.7 fWAR in 42 games and Long 0.0 fWAR in 34 games.

    Steamer and ZiPS project Chavis with 2021 WAR of 0.3 in 120 games and 0.9 in 112 games while projecting Long with 0.5 in 57 games and 0.3 in 107 games.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...2021/#comments
    Last edited by harmony; 11-22-2020 at 12:00 AM.

  2. #2522
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    Once again, everyone surrounding MLB is caught once again in the league wide conspiracy to undervalue Seattle Mariners’ players...

  3. #2523
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by harmony View Post
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values gives Michael Chavis a generous median surplus value of $7.5million (perhaps incorrectly listing Chavis with four years of team control when Chavis has just one year and 164 days of MLB service, making him a likely Super Two next offseason if he plays the entire 2021 season at the MLB level).

    https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7875/

    As a point of reference, Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $4.0 million to Seattle infielder Shed Long, who was born the same month as Chavis and who has five years of team control.

    Both players bombed this year after each posted 0.7 fWAR in impressive 2019 debuts, Chavis in 95 games and Long in 42 games. This year Chavis posted a negative 0.7 fWAR in 42 games and Long 0.0 fWAR in 34 games.

    Steamer and ZiPS project Chavis with 2021 WAR of 0.3 in 120 games and 0.9 in 112 games while projecting Long with 0.5 in 57 games and 0.3 in 107 games.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/...2021/#comments
    Chavis is way over rated on that site. That's why he and Chatham are in just about every trade I suggest, there.
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  4. #2524
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Chavis is way over rated on that site. That's why he and Chatham are in just about every trade I suggest, there.
    It's fun for you to act the would be GM and propose lots of different trades. The ones that count of course will be made by Bloom, lest we forget.

    I agree that Chavis is hanging by a thread in the organization. He has good power but his contact rate is too low for an everyday player. As a utility player, he is below average defensively at all positions, but he can play outfield and infield. When compared to Dalbec, they both have power but Dalbec hits with that power to all fields and is solid defensively at first and also purportedly 3rd. I see Chavis below Dalbec as far as roster. In the case of Chatham, I see a guy who is reasonably proficient defensively and can play 2nd and short and possibly the outfield. He doesn't have much power but makes reasonable contact for a utility player. With Lin gone, I would be relucttant to trade Chatham away unless we have identified a utility infielder who can sub in at short.

  5. #2525
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    It's fun for you to act the would be GM and propose lots of different trades. The ones that count of course will be made by Bloom, lest we forget.

    I agree that Chavis is hanging by a thread in the organization. He has good power but his contact rate is too low for an everyday player. As a utility player, he is below average defensively at all positions, but he can play outfield and infield. When compared to Dalbec, they both have power but Dalbec hits with that power to all fields and is solid defensively at first and also purportedly 3rd. I see Chavis below Dalbec as far as roster. In the case of Chatham, I see a guy who is reasonably proficient defensively and can play 2nd and short and possibly the outfield. He doesn't have much power but makes reasonable contact for a utility player. With Lin gone, I would be relucttant to trade Chatham away unless we have identified a utility infielder who can sub in at short.
    Agreed. Chatham > Chavis.

    Chavis might be dealt, but he is a weak side platoon player, which limits his market. If he gets dealt, it won’t be for anything overwhelming.

    His best bet at sticking with Boston is due to the new 26 man roster. If the Sox have a 5!man bench, Chavis can join Plawecki on it along with an outfielder some of the others.

    I will say that maybe the Sox need a utility infielder capable of playing SS, but they do have Arroyo...

  6. #2526
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Chavis is way over rated on that site. That's why he and Chatham are in just about every trade I suggest, there.
    Why exactly is Chavis way over rated?
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  7. #2527
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Why exactly is Chavis way over rated?
    Because he has positive trade value and is not needed in Boston?

    I think if you want to question a value of a Sox player on that website, Christian Arroyo is far more questionable.

    He had a value of 0 when Cleveland waived him and Boston claimed him. Then 50 at bats later, it’s a surplus value of $3.6 million.

    What exactly did he do in those 50 at bats? His .240/.296/.440 slash line is usually a reason to reduce a trade value, not increase it...

  8. #2528
    The Sox need talent over position. If I were Bloom, Iíd avoid flashy signings that could adjust draft order/capital without bringing titles. Theo wrote the book on how to tear down and rebuild when he took over the Cubs. Bloom is an acolyte. Build the farm, target good locker room presences on the Fa market and be patient. Lest you forget, he took over an absolutely awful Cubs team with albatross contracts and a farm that was absolutely terrible. In his 4th year, they won 97 games and in year 5 they took home the title. But it was on the strength of great drafting and INTL signings

  9. #2529
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I think if you want to question a value of a Sox player on that website, Christian Arroyo is far more questionable.

    He had a value of 0 when Cleveland waived him and Boston claimed him. Then 50 at bats later, it’s a surplus value of $3.6 million.

    What exactly did he do in those 50 at bats? His .240/.296/.440 slash line is usually a reason to reduce a trade value, not increase it...
    Perhaps the answer is that he eked out a fWAR of 0.1 in 15 games.

    When you consider that 1 fWAR is equal to $7-8 million in free agent dollars, I guess it makes sense.

    I think there is a bit of an issue doing valuations based on such small samples, though.
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  10. #2530
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    The Sox need talent over position. If I were Bloom, I’d avoid flashy signings that could adjust draft order/capital without bringing titles. Theo wrote the book on how to tear down and rebuild when he took over the Cubs. Bloom is an acolyte. Build the farm, target good locker room presences on the Fa market and be patient. Lest you forget, he took over an absolutely awful Cubs team with albatross contracts and a farm that was absolutely terrible. In his 4th year, they won 97 games and in year 5 they took home the title. But it was on the strength of great drafting and INTL signings
    And some pretty good trades, too.
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  11. #2531
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Once again, everyone surrounding MLB is caught once again in the league wide conspiracy to undervalue Seattle Mariners’ players...
    Red Sox fans might prefer this comp of the debut seasons of Bobby Dalbec and Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis, who the following year was named AL Rookie of the Year:

    2019 Lewis 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.888, OPS+ 131, 4.0 BB%, 38.7 K%, 0.5 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR
    2020 Dalbec 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152, 10.9 BB%, 42.4 K%, 0.6 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR

    Lewis and Dalbec are 6-foot-4, righthanded power hitters taken out of college in the 2016 draft.

    Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $31.3 million to five years of Lewis and $18.2 million to six years of Dalbec, a Seattle native who was born two weeks before Lewis.

    This poster's reserved 2021 projection for Dalbec mirrors his reserved projection for Lewis going into the 2020 season. The Lewis projection proved wrong and it's hard not to pull for Lewis after watching this 32-minute video about his comeback from injuries:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ilhWukPj5E
    Last edited by harmony; 11-22-2020 at 02:39 PM.

  12. #2532
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    It's fun for you to act the would be GM and propose lots of different trades. The ones that count of course will be made by Bloom, lest we forget.

    I agree that Chavis is hanging by a thread in the organization. He has good power but his contact rate is too low for an everyday player. As a utility player, he is below average defensively at all positions, but he can play outfield and infield. When compared to Dalbec, they both have power but Dalbec hits with that power to all fields and is solid defensively at first and also purportedly 3rd. I see Chavis below Dalbec as far as roster. In the case of Chatham, I see a guy who is reasonably proficient defensively and can play 2nd and short and possibly the outfield. He doesn't have much power but makes reasonable contact for a utility player. With Lin gone, I would be relucttant to trade Chatham away unless we have identified a utility infielder who can sub in at short.
    You are forgetting one major asset Dalbec has that can override the low contact rate- something Chavis has never had: Dalbec gets on base!

    Dalbec OBP
    .359 in a very small ML sample size of 92 PAs and .263 BA
    .362 in the minors (1609 PAs) .261 BA (slightly better than Chavis)

    Chavis OBP
    .304 in MLB (540 PAs- barley a full season).241 BA career
    .325 in the minors (1757 PAs) .257 BA

    The 37-55 point differential in OBP, if it continues, makes Dalbec a full time starter in MLB and Chavis a platoon utility IF'er.

    BTW, Chatham's numbers:
    .298 BA/.337 OBP in 1106 PAs in the minors (14 HRs and .402 SLG)

    I agree that Chatham is better than Chavis, but neither look all that great, to me.

    Dalbec is certainly a question mark. Good to great OBP in the minors does not always translate to MLB- just look at the Garin Cecchini example. That being said, I'm betting on Dalbec to be a keeper. The other two could be traded, and I'd never look back.

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  13. #2533
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Why exactly is Chavis way over rated?
    He can't field well.

    He does not get on base enough to offset his high K rate.

    If you look around MLB, today, high power players with little elese to offer are being DFA'd left and right: see Renfroe and Nunez.

    Chavis does have the plus of being able to play 3B, 1B and 2B.

    I was also looking at the context of the Trade Values site's rating of other Sox player, I feel are much better than the 7.5 score he gets (and Chatham's 4.9, too).

    8.5 Jimenez
    7.5 Chavis
    6.3 Potts (I would not take 2 Chavises for one Potts)
    6.3 Yorke (who knows this kids value?)
    6.0 Jordan (same)
    6.0 Lugo
    5.6 Houck (I wouldn't take 10 Chavises for Houck.)
    5.5 Beni
    4.9 Chatham
    4.5 Ward (I'd put him above both CH's)
    4.3 Wong
    3.8 Song
    3.7 Groome
    3.6 Arroyo (will start ahead of Chavis)
    3.6 Brasier (still pre-arb)
    3.3 Rosario (I like this kid way more than both CH's)
    3.0 Murphy
    2.6 Decker
    Selected others I value higher than both CH's:
    2.4 Pivetta
    2.1 Arauz
    1.6 Taylor
    Maybe even...
    1.0 Wallace
    0.8 Seabold
    0.6 Ramirez
    0.0 Munoz

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  14. #2534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Perhaps the answer is that he eked out a fWAR of 0.1 in 15 games.

    When you consider that 1 fWAR is equal to $7-8 million in free agent dollars, I guess it makes sense.

    I think there is a bit of an issue doing valuations based on such small samples, though.

    There is.

    Now for a website for fan amusement like BTV, this is inconsequential. The only real issue is if the Sox themselves are sold on Arroyo as the solution for 2b...

  15. #2535
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    He can't field well.

    He does not get on base enough to offset his high K rate.

    If you look around MLB, today, high power players with little elese to offer are being DFA'd left and right: see Renfroe and Nunez.

    Chavis does have the plus of being able to play 3B, 1B and 2B.

    I was also looking at the context of the Trade Values site's rating of other Sox player, I feel are much better than the 7.5 score he gets (and Chatham's 4.9, too).

    8.5 Jimenez
    7.5 Chavis
    6.3 Potts (I would not take 2 Chavises for one Potts)
    6.3 Yorke (who knows this kids value?)
    6.0 Jordan (same)
    6.0 Lugo
    5.6 Houck (I wouldn't take 10 Chavises for Houck.)
    5.5 Beni
    4.9 Chatham
    4.5 Ward (I'd put him above both CH's)
    4.3 Wong
    3.8 Song
    3.7 Groome
    3.6 Arroyo (will start ahead of Chavis)
    3.6 Brasier (still pre-arb)
    3.3 Rosario (I like this kid way more than both CH's)
    3.0 Murphy
    2.6 Decker
    Selected others I value higher than both CH's:
    2.4 Pivetta
    2.1 Arauz
    1.6 Taylor
    Maybe even...
    1.0 Wallace
    0.8 Seabold
    0.6 Ramirez
    0.0 Munoz

    I don't necessarily disagree with you. The real question is the methodology they're using to value some of these players with little or no MLB numbers to base on. How much weight gets placed on what?

    With Houck, you would think his speculative value would have taken a leap.
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