Originally Posted by
jacksonianmarch
In terms of payroll (all numbers are AAV)....
1. Cole- $36 mil
2. Stanton- $22 mil
3. Chapman- $17.4 mil
4. Britton- $13 mil (assuming Yanks pick up the option)
5. Hicks- $10 mil
6. Severino $10 mil
7. Ottavino- $8 mil
That's $116.4 mil. I am also assuming the Yanks opt out of Gardner's deal. I also expect them to non-tender Kahnle as he will miss all of 2021 and is in his final arb season. Add in $15 mil for medicals and you're at $131.4 mil. Now onto the arb totals
All arb estimates are entirely mine and mine alone, feel free to disagree, but give me your thoughts on amount. Also, $900K seems to be a popular first time arb number for players without solid track records, so I will use this a fair amount, FYI. Also, arbitration uses only the last 2 seasons.
8. Cessa- had a good 2020, not so good 2019. First year arbs for relievers without save totals are usually low. $900K
9. Frazier- good 2020 in limited role, not so good 2019. First year arb for him would be around $2 mil
10. German- solid 2019, no 2020 because he couldnt keep his hands to himself. Likely around Frazier at $2 mil
11. Green- coming off $1.2 mil arb salary, didnt do himself any favors with the HR allowed. His FIP went up a lot even though his ERA went down a lot from 2019. I'd peg him in the $3 mil range as a second arb
12. Heller- up and down and now injured. Likely to see $900K if not non-tendered
13. Higashioka- pre-arb- $600K
14. Holder- 2 straight poor seasons after a dominant 2018. He won't cost more than $900K
15. Judge- coming off $8.5 mil, was solid yet injury prone again. Second year arb's rise a lot. I'd peg him at $15 mil
16. Montgomery- season was better than it looked. FIP under 4, WAR of 0.9 in only 10 starts for a 5th guy. But, he's made only 17 starts the last 3 years. Won't see much of a raise. $1.2 mil
17. Loaisiga- pre-arb $600K
18. Tauchman- pre-arb $600K
19. Torres- first arb season for Gleyber. Otherworldly 2019, pretty bad 2020. Judge got $8.5 mil in his first time through, but far greater WAR than Torres. I will go with $6 mil
20. Urshela- first arb for him too. Defense picked up a lot, was on pace for a 4.3WAR season after a 3.1WAR season last year. Setting himself up for a good payday. $5 mil
21. Voit- first arb year for him and a doozy. Positive 2019 WAR but oft injured. Led the league in HR in 2020. Arbitration loves these figures. I am gonna go with a Torres-esque $6 mil
22. Wade- pre-arb $600K
23. Sanchez- I offer him a 1 yr contract for $4 mil. I do not allow him to go into the arb process, as his $5 mil contract will rise into the $8-$9 mil range. He lost his job as a catcher because he couldnt catch and lost his spot in the lineup because he couldnt hit.
My arb estimates are $49.3 mil for arbitration. That puts us at $180.7 mil. Add in the other 4 spots on the roster at minimum wage and then about $2 mil for the other 40 man guys and you are at $186 mil or so without any changes with the following team
C- Higashioka, Sanchez
1B- Voit
2B- Wade
3B- Urshela
SS- Torres
LF- Frazier
CF- Hicks
RF- Judge
DH- Stanton
SP1- Cole
SP2- German
SP3- Garcia
SP4- Montgomery
SP5 (recovering) Severino
CL- Chapman
SU- Britton
SU Green
MR- Heller
MR- Ottavino
The basic concepts of a playoff team are there. The lineup should be good. The rotation needs work until Sevy can return to his rightful place behind Cole. In terms of what will be needed....
1. Re-sign Lemahieu- If the Donaldson estimate is true, do it. 4 yrs $92 mil. My guess is he may come in a little lower than that as I think the bigger suitors are going to be less enthused about signing a 32 yr old in the wake of financial losses during a pandemic. But I think this is a reasonable deal based on the market.
2. Add to the rotation- we have some very solid kids ready to make the jump, but I only like one rookie at a time in the rotation. I pencil Deivi in more as a 4/5 and be surprised. Have Montgomery as the other 4/5 and know the last 2 slots are filled with cheap, productive talent. The ace is unquestioned. German is a shaky 3 as his HR propensity and lack of pitching the last 12 months makes him a dicey move to bet on. Severino, presuming no setbacks, should rejoin the rotation around the ASB and I would expect to see him in the vintage form by September based on the usual recovery time for this surgery. So we don't need to spend long and big on two starters. But we need someone to slot behind Cole who isn't a trainwreck. Tanaka was good this past year, and I would absolutely have him back on a short term deal. I absolutely would not offer him anything more than a 1-2 year deal. He will likely get better offers out there, so I would QO him and let him walk. Bauer will likely price himself out of NY's territory. The guy to keep an eye on is Stroman. He is remarkably consistent. He isnt a big K guy, but doesnt walk guys or allow lots of HR's. This is really important in YS. He had a rough 2018, but his peripherals and FIP were right in line with his production. He also just took 2020 off due to the pandemic and should be pretty fresh. My concern is that he will price himself out of the Yankees wishes and get a longer term deal out there. But he represents a pretty solid 3-4 yr deal offer type of pitcher. Charlie Morton may also be a target on a 1 yr deal.
3. Add a pen arm. The Rays proved that you can have an all star rotation, but if your pen is loaded with dominant relievers, you can shut anyone down. I wouldnt go top end here.