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Thread: Yankees 2020 offseason thread

  1. #1

    Yankees 2020 offseason thread

    Pretty solid game last night, even if the result wasnít in our favor. Hate making this post while baseball is still going on, but a hat tip to the Rays. Focusing on NY, Boone entirely fucked this series. Did he forget there werenít off days? Why, with a 1-0 lead, burn two starters in game 2? Why not stick to convention? It worked against Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. Instead, you got cute and it burned us. Second, why the ever living shit would you burn Chad Green in game 3, down 3 runs? That led to him not being available in game 5, which lead to needing to get 4 innings from Chapman and Britton. Chapman is a great pitcher, but when you ask him to get more than 3 outs, you play with fire. Brousseauís HR is up there with the Rajai Davis homer back in 2016 as reasons why you donít overextend Chapman. But we wouldnít have needed Chap for more than an inning if Green was available. I do not get it.

    The first thing to do this offseason is to move on from Boone. He was handed a young LCS team from Girardi, added Lemahieu and Gerrit Cole and couldnít get past a team with a third the payroll. He was given the chances, itís time to move on.

    Beyond that, some tough choices will need to be made. Lemahieu, Gardner, Paxton, Tanaka are all FAís. Iím sure Tanaka and Lemahieu get QOís, but Iím no longer sure we try more than a one year deal for Masahiro. We absolutely need to re-sign Lemahieu. Iíve seen a Donaldson deal as a likely range at 4 yrs $92 mil for DJ. Iíd be fine with that. Iíd opt out of Gardyís deal and let the walking IL in Paxton leave as well.

    On the arb side, Iíd offer Sanchez a 1 yr $4 mil deal, a slight drop. If he doesnít take it, non tender him. Thereís far more to get into as this long covid offseason slogs on.
    The rebuild is complete.

  2. #2
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Yankee fans on their forum are convinced that Boone didn't even make that call for Game 2, that it was Cash and the analytics guys. FWIW A-Rod said the same.

    If you want to get rid of Boone, you might have to get rid of Cash too.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

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  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Yankee fans on their forum are convinced that Boone didn't even make that call for Game 2, that it was Cash and the analytics guys. FWIW A-Rod said the same.

    If you want to get rid of Boone, you might have to get rid of Cash too.
    Game 2 may have been a joint decision and a reason why the FO fuckwits need to stay off the field. We won't know if Garcia as a starter would have outperformed what Happ did. Green's mismanagement was directly responsible for the events of last night, though, and entirely stupid. The Rays were every bit as good or better than the Yankees. You cannot make that callous of a mistake with Green, especially when the rest of your pen has been entirely hit or miss.
    The rebuild is complete.

  4. #4
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    It does seem like the Yankees got outmanaged in that series. (Kevin) Cash doesn't seem to make any managerial mistakes at all.
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  5. #5
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    The head-scratcher in last night's game was bringing Sanchez in as a "defensive replacement".
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    Theme song of 2020 Red Sox: "Tanks for the Memories"

  6. #6
    In terms of payroll (all numbers are AAV)....

    1. Cole- $36 mil
    2. Stanton- $22 mil
    3. Chapman- $17.4 mil
    4. Britton- $13 mil (assuming Yanks pick up the option)
    5. Hicks- $10 mil
    6. Severino $10 mil
    7. Ottavino- $8 mil

    That's $116.4 mil. I am also assuming the Yanks opt out of Gardner's deal. I also expect them to non-tender Kahnle as he will miss all of 2021 and is in his final arb season. Add in $15 mil for medicals and you're at $131.4 mil. Now onto the arb totals
    All arb estimates are entirely mine and mine alone, feel free to disagree, but give me your thoughts on amount. Also, $900K seems to be a popular first time arb number for players without solid track records, so I will use this a fair amount, FYI. Also, arbitration uses only the last 2 seasons.

    8. Cessa- had a good 2020, not so good 2019. First year arbs for relievers without save totals are usually low. $900K
    9. Frazier- good 2020 in limited role, not so good 2019. First year arb for him would be around $2 mil
    10. German- solid 2019, no 2020 because he couldnt keep his hands to himself. Likely around Frazier at $2 mil
    11. Green- coming off $1.2 mil arb salary, didnt do himself any favors with the HR allowed. His FIP went up a lot even though his ERA went down a lot from 2019. I'd peg him in the $3 mil range as a second arb
    12. Heller- up and down and now injured. Likely to see $900K if not non-tendered
    13. Higashioka- pre-arb- $600K
    14. Holder- 2 straight poor seasons after a dominant 2018. He won't cost more than $900K
    15. Judge- coming off $8.5 mil, was solid yet injury prone again. Second year arb's rise a lot. I'd peg him at $15 mil
    16. Montgomery- season was better than it looked. FIP under 4, WAR of 0.9 in only 10 starts for a 5th guy. But, he's made only 17 starts the last 3 years. Won't see much of a raise. $1.2 mil
    17. Loaisiga- pre-arb $600K
    18. Tauchman- pre-arb $600K
    19. Torres- first arb season for Gleyber. Otherworldly 2019, pretty bad 2020. Judge got $8.5 mil in his first time through, but far greater WAR than Torres. I will go with $6 mil
    20. Urshela- first arb for him too. Defense picked up a lot, was on pace for a 4.3WAR season after a 3.1WAR season last year. Setting himself up for a good payday. $5 mil
    21. Voit- first arb year for him and a doozy. Positive 2019 WAR but oft injured. Led the league in HR in 2020. Arbitration loves these figures. I am gonna go with a Torres-esque $6 mil
    22. Wade- pre-arb $600K
    23. Sanchez- I offer him a 1 yr contract for $4 mil. I do not allow him to go into the arb process, as his $5 mil contract will rise into the $8-$9 mil range. He lost his job as a catcher because he couldnt catch and lost his spot in the lineup because he couldnt hit.

    My arb estimates are $49.3 mil for arbitration. That puts us at $180.7 mil. Add in the other 4 spots on the roster at minimum wage and then about $2 mil for the other 40 man guys and you are at $186 mil or so without any changes with the following team

    C- Higashioka, Sanchez
    1B- Voit
    2B- Wade
    3B- Urshela
    SS- Torres
    LF- Frazier
    CF- Hicks
    RF- Judge
    DH- Stanton

    SP1- Cole
    SP2- German
    SP3- Garcia
    SP4- Montgomery
    SP5 (recovering) Severino

    CL- Chapman
    SU- Britton
    SU Green
    MR- Heller
    MR- Ottavino

    The basic concepts of a playoff team are there. The lineup should be good. The rotation needs work until Sevy can return to his rightful place behind Cole. In terms of what will be needed....

    1. Re-sign Lemahieu- If the Donaldson estimate is true, do it. 4 yrs $92 mil. My guess is he may come in a little lower than that as I think the bigger suitors are going to be less enthused about signing a 32 yr old in the wake of financial losses during a pandemic. But I think this is a reasonable deal based on the market.

    2. Add to the rotation- we have some very solid kids ready to make the jump, but I only like one rookie at a time in the rotation. I pencil Deivi in more as a 4/5 and be surprised. Have Montgomery as the other 4/5 and know the last 2 slots are filled with cheap, productive talent. The ace is unquestioned. German is a shaky 3 as his HR propensity and lack of pitching the last 12 months makes him a dicey move to bet on. Severino, presuming no setbacks, should rejoin the rotation around the ASB and I would expect to see him in the vintage form by September based on the usual recovery time for this surgery. So we don't need to spend long and big on two starters. But we need someone to slot behind Cole who isn't a trainwreck. Tanaka was good this past year, and I would absolutely have him back on a short term deal. I absolutely would not offer him anything more than a 1-2 year deal. He will likely get better offers out there, so I would QO him and let him walk. Bauer will likely price himself out of NY's territory. The guy to keep an eye on is Stroman. He is remarkably consistent. He isnt a big K guy, but doesnt walk guys or allow lots of HR's. This is really important in YS. He had a rough 2018, but his peripherals and FIP were right in line with his production. He also just took 2020 off due to the pandemic and should be pretty fresh. My concern is that he will price himself out of the Yankees wishes and get a longer term deal out there. But he represents a pretty solid 3-4 yr deal offer type of pitcher. Charlie Morton may also be a target on a 1 yr deal.

    3. Add a pen arm. The Rays proved that you can have an all star rotation, but if your pen is loaded with dominant relievers, you can shut anyone down. I wouldnt go top end here.
    The rebuild is complete.

  7. #7
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Cot's shows Britton contract is guaranteed for 2021 and the option year is 2022.

    Have to give him credit for his pitching the last 2 games, he was clutch.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    Theme song of 2020 Red Sox: "Tanks for the Memories"

  8. #8
    Cots is wrong. Britton has a ďswell-optĒ. The Yanks need to opt into the final 2 years. If they donít opt into the 2 years, Britton gets a player option for 2021

  9. #9
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Cots is wrong. Britton has a “swell-opt”. The Yanks need to opt into the final 2 years. If they don’t opt into the 2 years, Britton gets a player option for 2021
    Spotrac says the player option comes first.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    Theme song of 2020 Red Sox: "Tanks for the Memories"

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Spotrac says the player option comes first.
    It does not.

  11. #11

  12. #12
    HOF (Micro) Manager Thunder's Avatar
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    There is absolutely no reason why the Yankees and Dodgers should NOT have played in the 2019 and 2020 World Series. My former roommate, a Yankees fan, wants Boone fired and replaced by Showalter. I don't know about Showalter, but I agree about canning Boone. He has shown time and again that he does not make good managerial decisions when it matters the most. Yes, this team has been injured for like the last 20 years in a row, but they won 100 games last year and started 16-6 this year. They have the talent no matter who is in the lineup.

    And, for that matter, if the Braves beat the Dodgers in the NLCS, Roberts should be fired as well. That team has way too much talent to not make it.

  13. #13
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
    There is absolutely no reason why the Yankees and Dodgers should NOT have played in the 2019 and 2020 World Series. My former roommate, a Yankees fan, wants Boone fired and replaced by Showalter. I don't know about Showalter, but I agree about canning Boone. He has shown time and again that he does not make good managerial decisions when it matters the most. Yes, this team has been injured for like the last 20 years in a row, but they won 100 games last year and started 16-6 this year. They have the talent no matter who is in the lineup.
    The Yankees' "home run or strikeout" philosophy (obviously aside from DJL) has something to do with why their offense mysteriously disappears at times.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    Theme song of 2020 Red Sox: "Tanks for the Memories"

  14. #14
    HOF (Micro) Manager Thunder's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    The Yankees' "home run or strikeout" philosophy (obviously aside from DJL) has something to do with why their offense mysteriously disappears at times.
    Yes. They certainly aren't experts at manufacturing runs or playing small ball. But, to play Devil's Advocate, that mindset has become the new norm in the game. It is telling, however, that the 4 teams left aren't really HR or bust type teams. The Astros aren't playing that way anymore. Anybody is capable of going deep, but they don't rely on it. Same for the Dodgers. They just have some much offensive firepower that 2-3 balls are bound to go out every night.

    In the not too distant future, I think the majority of teams will be built like that, or at least the ones with the money to do so

  15. #15
    Legend TylerD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    It does seem like the Yankees got outmanaged in that series. (Kevin) Cash doesn't seem to make any managerial mistakes at all.
    Agreed.

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