Moneyball and the mechanization and computerization of MLB

[Maxbialystock]

German officers have/had a term--fingerspitzengefuhl--that means "finger tip feel" and refers to a commander's situational awareness of what is happening on the battlefield. I think the best football coaches, even the ones who rely heavily on computers and game plans, assistants in the press boxes, etc, have that situational awareness and that it helps them make what are often spur of the moment decisions on who to play and what formation/play should be used.

Baseball used to be that way. Remember Grady Little's decision to keep Pedro Martinez on the mound in the 2003 ALCS game which allowed the Yankees to come back? Grady had lousy situational awareness and was correctly fired after that season. But to my way of thinking those kinds of human errors are the essence of sports and baseball and should be celebrated (unless your a huge Sox fan, which I am).

These days MLB managers rely less and less on understanding what is happening on the field and more and more on what the computer says.

Last night Kevin Cash displayed that phenomenon perfectly. And, by the way, substituting computer sense for situational awareness has worked wonderfully for the Rays. They have a codified system for acquiring players (on a very low payroll), developing them, and now orchestrating how they are positioned on the field, when and how pitching changes are made, etc.

Cash confirmed this last part last night. It mattered not a whit to him that Snell was pitching the game of a lifetime (5.1 innings, 73 pitches, 9 K's, 0 walks, 0 runs, 9 K's) or that Snell had struck out the next three batters (Betts, Seager, Turner) he would have faced six out of six plate appearance.

What did matter is that the computer told him that the third time through the batting order is fraught with peril--indeed, hopeless--no matter how well the starter is pitching. The computer also did not care that Anderson, the guy who came in, was tired and had an ERA of over 7 (which became 9) in this WS. And, if the computer didn't care, Kevin Cash didn't either. And neither does the Rays hierarchy. What was it Humphrey Bogart said near the end of the movie, The African Queen? "The Germans have their systems and they sticks to 'em."

Let me hasten to add that all managers use computers today all the time: before games, during games, after games. So it's clearly too late to put that genie back in the bottle. Indeed, I suspect that Dave Roberts relied heavily on computer information to make six pitching changes last night (he used 7 pitchers). It's remotely possible that Kevin Cash was resentful that he couldn't pull Snell out sooner because these days that's how managers show how smart they are--they bring in a new pitcher. Only dumb managers rely on players (more than computers) to win the games.

Speaking of situational awareness, I thought the Dodgers displayed far more of it than the Rays, who in one game had men on 2d and 3d and no outs when the batter hit a grounder to the third baseman. That resulted in both runners being thrown out and the batter ending up on 1B. On the other hand, whenever Mookie Betts was on base, it usually spelled trouble because he knew when to gamble, plus the Rays players routinely made the wrong defensive play under pressure.

[dgalehouse]

Old school , baseball sense , gut feeling , tobacco spitting, beer drinking , no nonsense managing vs. New school , data driven, analytics loving , nerd consulting, geek web site studying , five hour energy, sabermetrics managing. The debate rages on . It should sustain us through the long , cold winter and the " not so " hot stove league.

[notin]

German officers have/had a term--fingerspitzengefuhl--that means "finger tip feel" and refers to a commander's situational awareness of what is happening on the battlefield. I think the best football coaches, even the ones who rely heavily on computers and game plans, assistants in the press boxes, etc, have that situational awareness and that it helps them make what are often spur of the moment decisions on who to play and what formation/play should be used.

Baseball used to be that way. Remember Grady Little's decision to keep Pedro Martinez on the mound in the 2003 ALCS game which allowed the Yankees to come back? Grady had lousy situational awareness and was correctly fired after that season. But to my way of thinking those kinds of human errors are the essence of sports and baseball and should be celebrated (unless your a huge Sox fan, which I am).

These days MLB managers rely less and less on understanding what is happening on the field and more and more on what the computer says.

Last night Kevin Cash displayed that phenomenon perfectly. And, by the way, substituting computer sense for situational awareness has worked wonderfully for the Rays. They have a codified system for acquiring players (on a very low payroll), developing them, and now orchestrating how they are positioned on the field, when and how pitching changes are made, etc.

Cash confirmed this last part last night. It mattered not a whit to him that Snell was pitching the game of a lifetime (5.1 innings, 73 pitches, 9 K's, 0 walks, 0 runs, 9 K's) or that Snell had struck out the next three batters (Betts, Seager, Turner) he would have faced six out of six plate appearance.

What did matter is that the computer told him that the third time through the batting order is fraught with peril--indeed, hopeless--no matter how well the starter is pitching. The computer also did not care that Anderson, the guy who came in, was tired and had an ERA of over 7 (which became 9) in this WS. And, if the computer didn't care, Kevin Cash didn't either. And neither does the Rays hierarchy. What was it Humphrey Bogart said near the end of the movie, The African Queen? "The Germans have their systems and they sticks to 'em."

Let me hasten to add that all managers use computers today all the time: before games, during games, after games. So it's clearly too late to put that genie back in the bottle. Indeed, I suspect that Dave Roberts relied heavily on computer information to make six pitching changes last night (he used 7 pitchers). It's remotely possible that Kevin Cash was resentful that he couldn't pull Snell out sooner because these days that's how managers show how smart they are--they bring in a new pitcher. Only dumb managers rely on players (more than computers) to win the games.

Speaking of situational awareness, I thought the Dodgers displayed far more of it than the Rays, who in one game had men on 2d and 3d and no outs when the batter hit a grounder to the third baseman. That resulted in both runners being thrown out and the batter ending up on 1B. On the other hand, whenever Mookie Betts was on base, it usually spelled trouble because he knew when to gamble, plus the Rays players routinely made the wrong defensive play under pressure.

Somewhere Pete Carroll is breathing a heavy sigh. Since this is now the most second-guessed coaching decision since his Super Bowl XLIX play-calling...

[moonslav59]

Sorry. I find it hard to criticize Grady for pulling Pedro and Cash for pulling Snell, at the same time.

I realize the pitch counts were different. The pen choices were different, but IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

[notin]

Sorry. I find it hard to criticize Grady for pulling Pedro and Cash for pulling Snell, at the same time.

I realize the pitch counts were different. The pen choices were different, but IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

THe problem wasn't Grady pulling Pedro. It was leaving him in too long. However, he did have the defense that his bullpen was horrible that whole season. Cash, on the other hand, had a terrific bullpen all season long...

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, you live or die with your best guy on the mound, unless his arm is dangling from the socket.

Wow, you're more old school than I realized!

[Bellhorn04]

The Pedro choice certainly made more sense than the Snell one, but both were the best each team had and were doing well.

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

[moonslav59]

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

I'd still take a 50% Pedro over a 100% Embree everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

His arm was not dangling.

The hit that beat him was a cheezy flair hit. Had he popped out to 2B, we'd have never heard a peep. Now, it's the worst managerial decision in Sox history.

If that's "old school," count me in.

[Bellhorn04]

Cash, on the other hand, had a terrific bullpen all season long...

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

[Bellhorn04]

I'd still take a 50% Pedro over a 100% Embree everyday of the week and twice on Sundays.

His arm was not dangling.

The hit that beat him was a cheezy flair hit. Had he popped out to 2B, we'd have never heard a peep. Now, it's the worst managerial decision in Sox history.

If that's "old school," count me in.

The hit by Posada may have been a flare - the issue is that it was the 4th hit in a row - and it came after a ROCKET by Matsui.

[moonslav59]

Pedro gave the 'heavenward thank you' as he was coming off the mound after the 7th. He thought he was done. He said so later.

Remember when Pedro came in in relief in that Indians playoff game and went like 7 innings all tired out?

Had he let up a ton of runs, would that have been worse than the Little decision?

Hindsight sure is 20-20.

(I know many felt the Little choice was right, before the losing hit, but not me. I was pissed he was pulled.)

[moonslav59]

The hit by Posada may have been a flare - the issue is that it was the 4th hit in a row - and it came after a ROCKET by Matsui.

Yes, the Matsui hit was maybe the hardest hit of the night.

Pedro will always be "the man" in my book.

[notin]

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

But the thing is, Anderson didn't get rocked that inning. He did give up the double to Betts. But the killer was that he threw a wild pitch to tie the game. If he doesn't throw one, do you think Barnes (much slower than Betts) scores on a grounder to first?

And if Barnes is out at the plate, Turner's flyball ends the inning with 0 runs scored. (This does assume Anderson throws the same pitches in different situations, but without the WP it's not hard to envision getting out of the inning, either.)

[notin]

That's true, but Anderson had been struggling badly, giving up runs in 6 straight appearances, probably showing signs of being worn down. You wonder why Cash gave so little weight to that side of it.

He went with his strength, which was his bullpen all season long.

Since he has not really said why he pulled him, a lot of people are jumping to conclusions. But Cash didn't put have the best season in the AL because he did not know what he was doing...

[Bellhorn04]

He went with his strength, which was his bullpen all season long.

Since he has not really said why he pulled him, a lot of people are jumping to conclusions. But Cash didn't put have the best season in the AL because he did not know what he was doing...

Cash said it was the pre-game plan not to let him face the lineup a third time, did he not?