Blue Jays Sign Springer

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm going to go all harmony on you here.

ZIPS is projecting the following for 2021
Paxton - 2.7 fWAR
Tanaka - 2.3 fWAR
Happ - 1.6 fWAR

These 3 combined for 1.7 fWAR in 2020, but in a 60 game season, not really all that good for comparisons.

Zips also projects
Kluber - 2.5
German - 2.1
Garcia - 2.1

So the Yankees gave up 6.6 fWAR and replaced it with 6.7 fWAR.

I'd say all is equal here according to ZIPS...

Paxton's workout had him topping out around 90. That's a big problem for a guy who sits 95+ and hits 99. I think the ZIPS of 2.7 fWAR is incredibly generous. I think he might be done or time to move into relief

[moonslav59]

Paxton did nothing in 2020. Happ is suddenly one of our best pitchers? Interesting, since he has been kicked out of the rotation so many times for sucking (I am sure you rubbed that in) but now he is a big loss? Tanaka is gonna hurt, I don't doubt that. But the idea that he was a co-ace with Cole is a fallacy. The guys we lost are losses. But we do gain two pitchers with 2020 in the rear view. So the question is, does a second year Garcia improve on himself? Can German outperform Happ? Can Kluber stay healthy enough to outperform Tanaka of 2020? And can Severino return and show the top of the rotation form of 17-18? There is certainly a chance Kluber is on the 60 day, Severino has a setback, Garcia has a second year pull back and German is sitting in a jail cell and the rotation is a mess. But discounting the time lapse giving us 2 pitchers back is also red sox pink hat territory, especially when touting Sale's return. The best possible scenario for the Yanks is Severino comes back throwing smoke and Kluber and Cole stay healthy. That would create a top 3 that would be unrivaled in the AL

Funny. I remember you defending Happ, when I was saying ERod was better.

Happ ate a lot of innings and was one of your best pitchers from 2019-2020. That's not saying he was great or even good.

fWAR 2019-2020

4.1 Tanaka
3.8 Paxton
2.0 German
1.9 Happ
1.8 Green
1.5 Cole (1 short season)
1.0 Montgomery
0.8 Gracia
0.4 Sabathia (retired B4 2020)
0.2 Loaisiga

IP
230 Tanaka
211 Happ
171 Paxton
143 German
107 Sabathia
95 Green
73 Cole*

[jacksonianmarch]

Funny. I remember you defending Happ, when I was saying ERod was better.

Happ ate a lot of innings and was one of your best pitchers from 2019-2020. That's not saying he was great or even good.

ERod surpassed him in 19, although Happ did do something in 20, so there is that

[moonslav59]

ERod surpassed him in 19, although Happ did do something in 20, so there is that

Would you rather have Happ in 2021 or not? (pretend money does not matter)

How about Tanaka?

How about Paxton?

I wish the Sox had all 3, right now.

[notin]

Would you rather have Happ in 2021 or not? (pretend money does not matter)

How about Tanaka?

How about Paxton?

I wish the Sox had all 3, right now.

I could pass on Happ. And thankfully, Bloom already did that.

Despite the long history of former Yankees failing in Boston, I would not mind Tanaka. Paxton just seems like he gets hurt too much, and we already have Eovaldi for that...

[moonslav59]

I could pass on Happ. And thankfully, Bloom already did that.

Despite the long history of former Yankees failing in Boston, I would not mind Tanaka. Paxton just seems like he gets hurt too much, and we already have Eovaldi for that...

I didn't mean sign them, but I'd take Happ on our staff over 3-4 of our projected opening day pitchers.

[notin]

I didn't mean sign them, but I'd take Happ on our staff over 3-4 of our projected opening day pitchers.

In the rotation?

Right now soxprospects.com projects ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta and Houck. Which 3 would you take Happ over?

[moonslav59]

In the rotation?

Right now soxprospects.com projects ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta and Houck. Which 3 would you take Happ over?

I was implying he's better than 3-4 pitchers on our 12-13 man staff.

I was also thinking someone will be hurt or use him as a RP'er, or move Houck to the pen or start him in AAA.

I'd rather have Happ than Perez, but we already signed Perez.

Note: I would not have paid him $8M, but he's better than Perez and more reliable than Eovaldi.

I have big questions about Pivetta, but having Happ over Pivetta is probably worthwhile, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

In the rotation?

Right now soxprospects.com projects ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Pivetta and Houck. Which 3 would you take Happ over?

Eovaldi, Pivetta and Perez

[notin]

Eovaldi, Pivetta and Perez

Based on anything besides pinstripes?

[mvp 78]

I could see taking Happ over Eovaldi due to Eovaldi's health concerns. Perez is sturdy, 8+ years younger and has a higher fWAR over the past 2 seasons. Pivetta is a post prospect who isn't a lock to make the opening day roster.

Perez > Happ > Eovaldi > Pivetta

Eovaldi has a higher ceiling than the others, but he'd need to stay healthy for once.

[notin]

I could see taking Happ over Eovaldi due to Eovaldi's health concerns. Perez is sturdy, 8+ years younger and has a higher fWAR over the past 2 seasons. Pivetta is a post prospect who isn't a lock to make the opening day roster.

Perez > Happ > Eovaldi > Pivetta

Eovaldi has a higher ceiling than the others, but he'd need to stay healthy for once.

Of those four, Pivetta is the guy with the highest ceiling. It’s just a matter of him reaching it.

Happ is 38 and is trending like a 38yo. He could easily finish with the worst season of those four...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s just a matter of Jim reaching it.

Nick's brother?

[moonslav59]

Of those four, Pivetta is the guy with the highest ceiling. It’s just a matter of him reaching it.

Happ is 38 and is trending like a 38yo. He could easily finish with the worst season of those four...

He could, but he could also do better than the last 2 years. He looked like he was aging pretty well from ages 33-36.