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Thread: Bauer sweepstakes

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    40 opt-out
    45 opt-out
    17

    The AAV is 34 mill for 2021. It looks to me, though, that if Bauer opts out after Year Two, the Dodgers will get stuck with a 51 mill tax number for 2022, because the final figures will be 2 years and 85 mill.
    Wouldn’t that make it a $42.5 mill tax hit?

  2. #32
    No, they’ll retroactively assign the difference in AAV and add it to the last year. Nice new wrinkle from the last CBA.

    So his year 1 will cost $34 mil vs the AAV but will actually pay him $40 mil.

    His year 2 will cost $34 mil to AAV but will pay him $45.

    If he opts out after year two, his $34 mil cap hit would add the $6 mil from year 1 and the $11 mil from year two above the $34 mil AAV. His cap hit would actually be $51 mil

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    The Dodgers reset their tax penalty in 2018 and they have a very strong farm system.

    Not saying that that makes spending all that money the right thing to do, but it certainly opens up more flexibility for them to do so.

    Red Sox Stats
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    Dodgers have the farm system that lets them make these moves. They have built an absolute machine that endlessly feeds in new top prospects to offset adding superstars. That's the dream.



    ^^This guy is my soulmate.

    The Dodgers were also under the tax penalty limit in 2019. They currently have all the flexibility in the world, which is the exact opposite of what we have.

    Bloom will get us there, I have no doubt.

  4. #34
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    Another tidbit I read this morning:


    Baseball Quotes
    @baseballquotes1
    · 13h
    Trevor Bauer is set to make more money in 2021 than three current teams have on their payroll!

    Trevor Bauer's 2021 contract: $40 million

    Cleveland Indians 2021 payroll: $36.5 million
    Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 payroll: $37.7 million
    Baltimore Orioles 2021 payroll: $39.1 millon



    That is crazy stuff.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Red Sox Stats
    @redsoxstats
    ·
    13h
    Dodgers have the farm system that lets them make these moves. They have built an absolute machine that endlessly feeds in new top prospects to offset adding superstars. That's the dream.



    ^^This guy is my soulmate.

    The Dodgers were also under the tax penalty limit in 2019. They currently have all the flexibility in the world, which is the exact opposite of what we have.

    Bloom will get us there, I have no doubt.
    Friedman is knocking it out of the park.

    What's interesting is that it really takes a championship to make everything worth it.

    If the Dodgers hadn't come back from 3-1 against the Braves people would be making much of their continued title drought. And probably calling this Bauer signing 'desperate' and the like.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  7. #37
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    Another tidbit I read this morning:


    Baseball Quotes
    @baseballquotes1
    · 13h
    Trevor Bauer is set to make more money in 2021 than three current teams have on their payroll!

    Trevor Bauer's 2021 contract: $40 million

    Cleveland Indians 2021 payroll: $36.5 million
    Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 payroll: $37.7 million
    Baltimore Orioles 2021 payroll: $39.1 millon



    That is crazy stuff.
    The Dodgers are clearly the Yankees of the Steinbrenner era.

    I get the argument than once a team makes the playoffs there is an element of a "crap shoot," but seriously, what would the Sox have had to do, this winter, to come close to the same winning it all odds as the Dodger.

    Even becoming the odd on favorite of winning the AL Championship would have taken mammoth spending and trading away of prospects.

    When looking at the moves Bloom has made, and more importantly not made, this context is needed.

    Bloom is moving us in the right direction and positioning our future spending budget in a positive way.
    Sox 4 Ever

  8. #38
    Deity Kimmi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    Friedman is knocking it out of the park.

    What's interesting is that it really takes a championship to make everything worth it.

    If the Dodgers hadn't come back from 3-1 against the Braves people would be making much of their continued title drought. And probably calling this Bauer signing 'desperate' and the like.
    Agreed on both counts. As you know, I'm a strong believer in the 'playoffs are a crapshoot' notion. IMO, a GM's success really shouldn't be based on the team's success in the postseason and on WS Championships, but on regular season success and the strength of the team en route to the playoffs. That's not the way it usually works though.

    It's a moot point now, but how would Mookie's signing be viewed if the Dodgers did not win a championship during the entire contract? How would Dombrowski's moves be viewed if the Sox had not won in 2018?

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    The Dodgers are clearly the Yankees of the Steinbrenner era.

    I get the argument than once a team makes the playoffs there is an element of a "crap shoot," but seriously, what would the Sox have had to do, this winter, to come close to the same winning it all odds as the Dodger.

    Even becoming the odd on favorite of winning the AL Championship would have taken mammoth spending and trading away of prospects.

    When looking at the moves Bloom has made, and more importantly not made, this context is needed.

    Bloom is moving us in the right direction and positioning our future spending budget in a positive way.
    The Sox are not currently in a place to make the all out moves. We'll get there, and we'll see Bloom make a big signing, but the timing is not right for that to happen now. IMO, Bloom is doing exactly what he needs to be doing.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    The Sox are not currently in a place to make the all out moves. We'll get there, and we'll see Bloom make a big signing, but the timing is not right for that to happen now. IMO, Bloom is doing exactly what he needs to be doing.
    Agreed, however signing someone like Odorizzi to 3 years fits into the plan, too, but maybe Bloom is not that high on him, so I won't bash him for passing on this years' 3+ year FAs.

    If we don't start spending next winter, my tune may change.
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Agreed, however signing someone like Odorizzi to 3 years fits into the plan, too, but maybe Bloom is not that high on him, so I won't bash him for passing on this years' 3+ year FAs.

    If we don't start spending next winter, my tune may change.
    I would not be opposed to signing Odorizzi, though I'm also fine if we don't sign him.

    How much Bloom spends next year will depend on how things go this year and what moves can be made that benefit both the short and long terms. I'm still not sure we'll be in the 'all in' phase yet, which is not to say that we won't improve and remain competitive. With that said, I think it's likely that we exceed the first tax limit next year.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I would not be opposed to signing Odorizzi, though I'm also fine if we don't sign him.

    How much Bloom spends next year will depend on how things go this year and what moves can be made that benefit both the short and long terms. I'm still not sure we'll be in the 'all in' phase yet, which is not to say that we won't improve and remain competitive. With that said, I think it's likely that we exceed the first tax limit next year.
    The thing is, if the Sox are really building for 2022, why wait? Their window is primarily built on Sale. So waiting too long is a bad, bad thing...

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The thing is, if the Sox are really building for 2022, why wait? Their window is primarily built on Sale. So waiting too long is a bad, bad thing...
    I'm thinking that the FO doesn't think of having a window built around Sale. They have said over and over again that their goal is sustainability. They are not just looking at what the team can do when Sale is with the staff. It all comes down to what makes sense for the short and long terms. Regardless of when they plan to go over the limit, they will need to be able to reset every 3 years or so (depending on the new CBA).

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kimmi View Post
    I would not be opposed to signing Odorizzi, though I'm also fine if we don't sign him.

    How much Bloom spends next year will depend on how things go this year and what moves can be made that benefit both the short and long terms. I'm still not sure we'll be in the 'all in' phase yet, which is not to say that we won't improve and remain competitive. With that said, I think it's likely that we exceed the first tax limit next year.
    I'm okay either way with Odorizzi, too.

    I'm leaning towards thinking not going over the tax line is a very high priority. The only way that changes is if we not only look like we might be in line to make the playoffs at the trade deadline, but that we look like we could advance in the playoffs.

    I think (and hope) we look at our window as being 2022 to 2024 and maybe beyond. Spend big in 2022 and look to maybe reset in 2025 or 2026. If we go over, this year, we may have to reset in 2024 or 2025 (a year earlier).

    What year will we have a better chance at winning it all? 2021 or 2024/2025?

    I can't imagine anyone thinking it's 2021.

    I know 2024 is a long ways away, but I like our longer look much better than the shorter one.
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  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    I'm okay either way with Odorizzi, too.

    I'm leaning towards thinking not going over the tax line is a very high priority. The only way that changes is if we not only look like we might be in line to make the playoffs at the trade deadline, but that we look like we could advance in the playoffs.

    I think (and hope) we look at our window as being 2022 to 2024 and maybe beyond. Spend big in 2022 and look to maybe reset in 2025 or 2026. If we go over, this year, we may have to reset in 2024 or 2025 (a year earlier).

    What year will we have a better chance at winning it all? 2021 or 2024/2025?

    I can't imagine anyone thinking it's 2021.

    I know 2024 is a long ways away, but I like our longer look much better than the shorter one.
    2024 is Alex Verdugo's option year. If the plan is to wait that long, it is already flawed...

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