This is the annual thread where we all guess how many wins the Sox will have in the regular season. Let's all assume that 162 games will be played for this.
This is the annual thread where we all guess how many wins the Sox will have in the regular season. Let's all assume that 162 games will be played for this.
Originally Posted by moonslav59
90--and that's an optimistic number.
As of now, before all FAs are signed, I think 86.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
And 7 of MLBTR's top 50 are still unsigned, all of them pitchers. Six starters and Mark Melancon...
Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.
I chose 78 wins, which is 6 games below .500... or only three wins away from .500. That's an improvement over last summer when they were 12 games under.
The last time the Sox went 78-84, they finished last in 2015.
Do you think the Sox will sign any of those pitchers?
I think the 2019 team (which was virtually the same as the 2018 team) vastly underperformed.
Right now I'm feeling 83-79.
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
In baseball the word "better" is almost irrelevant sometimes. How's that for an answer?
Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1
The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.
The 2019 team underperformed by a lot. Clearly, they were a better team on paper than 78 wins. They were pretty close to the same team as 2018, and it's harder to "elaborate" on the massive drop in wins between 2018 and 2019 than 2019 and 2021.
You also have to look at the strength of other AL teams. The Astros are way worse than the 2017-2020 versions. The Rays look worse on paper, but I never count them out.
The CWS have improved. The Twins and Angels should be good. The Indians and A's may compete, but the rest of the AL is in bad shape- worse shape than the Sox.
I'm not going to say projecting 78-82 wins is wrong. I can certainly see that happening, but I think our 2021 team should be much better than the 2020 team which projected to 65 wins.
We did end 2020 going 12-9, which included wins vs NYY, ATL and TBR, and 2020 saw 60- 80% of our rotation on the IL at any given moment.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
The biggest difference between the 2019 team and the 2021 team are the 2019 had Chris sale and David Price. But as this was not exactly vintage Sale (147 IP, 4.40 ERA) nor vintage Price (107 IP, 4.28 ERA), it is not that difficult to imagine those numbers being replicated or exceeded by Richards and Perez. That bullpen also relied heavily on Colten Brewer and Marcus Walden, two pitchers who will have to earn their way back on to the 2021 team. And this could get even more difficult if/when the Sox sign Sawamura.
Replacing Mookie with Verdugo is a loss, but replacing Holt with EHern should be a gain. Its not hard to see Devers as being better, despite his brillaint 2019 season.
but more important is the AL East competition. Are the Rays (25.1 fWAR) still the best pitching staff in the AL, like they were in 2019? Are the Yankees still a top 10 pitching staff, especially considering the durability of their starters? The Jays' staff should be better, but that does not mean they are good. Those 3 teams account for over 1/3 of the Sox opponents in 2021.
That said, any of these teams could still improve substantially if they choose to spend on some of the remaining arms. But then so could Boston...
'19's rotation was a disappointment, with down years from everyone but ERod -- mainly because of injuries, except to Porcello, who just declined. As unnerving as Sale's season was, he still averaged 13.3 Ks per 9. A big key to the record was the lack of a shutdown closer, like a Kimbrel or Papelbon in their primes.
An automatic-type closer is vital to a mediocre team that needs to secure any win it can. The '21 Red Sox don't have one yet.
While the Sox were among the league leaders in blown saves that year, the overwhelming bulk of them came in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Workman was actually extremely solid in the 9th inning role. Didn't he come close to setting the MLB record for consecutive hitters retired that year?
Setup seemed to be a bigger issue than closer...
And the addition of Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura will lengthen this bullpen, especially if Houck is in the mix as well.
We know the pen was burnt out early because starters couldn't even make it to 5th. But the blown saves, whenever they came, were a big part preventing '19 from being a 90-win season. As for '20, the bullpen was half the starting rotation, so roles will have to be redefined by AC, beginning next week...
If the division and league aren't as strong, wouldn't a perceptive front office -- hot off the celebration of resetting -- seek to capitalize by recruiting needed talent that's been available all winter and debated here? Imagine Theo Epstein in his Boston days looking at the competition and saying, "No one else looks that good, so we don't have to fortify much"...
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