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Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

  1. #31
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Prospecting is an in exact science. Montero was the top prospect in baseball, so there’s no shame in thinking he’d be better than he was. Although Cash did sell high on him, now didn’t he?

    I do not think Durran ends up as a big league starter. He’s not a good defender at this juncture, so you can’t say he offsets his offensive inefficiencies with his glove. His power is nil right now. He doesn’t work counts or take walks and also K’s more than a slap hitter should. So he is a BABIP dependent hitter with limited defensive prowess and doesn’t walk enough. Can’t steal 1b.

    Downs I like. Downs, I also surmise, will spend most of not all of 21 in the minors. He saw a handful of games at AA in 19 and is only 22 years old. But I love the package. Power is there, eye is there, contact is above average, reasonable speed with SB instincts, and soft hands. He’s a real prospect, not like Durran who seems to be a hyped up pretender, IMO. In order for Downs to come up, the Sox would need to either have an injury to Bogaerts or no production at all from Marwin, Chavis and Kike. If it gets that far down the line, then you’ve lost some games due to that lack of production
    Duran actually does "steal 1B." His speed gets him many more IF hits than almost anyone else. His speed also makes him close to an average defender in CF, IMO, but I'm no expert on where his defense is at, this moment.

    I have not been big on Duran hype, and I do not think he is a lock to be a plus CF'er in MLB, especially in 2021, but there is certainly a chance he is an overall plus, right now.

    If Cordero comes through, we don't need Duran, this year. If he doesn't we can use Chavis in LF, and maybe Renfroe and Chavis's offense can outweigh the ,losses on defense.

    We have multiple ways to make the OF a plus, including using Kiki in CF.
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  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    We all know this 2021 payroll is tied up with a lot of dead money of players no longer here or currently unavailable... and that "owing" isn't quite the same as "spending". But such limitations are probably the reason the Sox opted for -- and these are just examples that don't necessarily correlate -- Richards over Odorizzi, Renfroe over Rosario, Marwin over Semien, Ottavino (really German) over Hand, etc, etc.

    I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.
    Let’s not pretend there is no relationship between owing and spending. The bottom line is the Sox - even after two years of not spending - still have one of the highest payrolls in MLB.

    Now maybe Bloom will never get the greenlight to exceed the tax limit. But even that is not the same as saying they’ll never spend. It’s not that difficult to compile a team of 40 players making a total of $206 million, especially if half of them are pre-arbitration or making MiLB money...

  3. #33
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

    You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.
    We also have Dalbec, who is not being "promoted," but will play way more than he did in 2020 (pro-rated), and guys like Seabold & Houck, who may not be "studs" but can fill key roles.
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  4. #34
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenmeister View Post
    But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.
    The pen is also the easiest area to improve at the deadline.

    If we are in the race, we can improve areas we need help.
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  5. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Duran actually does "steal 1B." His speed gets him many more IF hits than almost anyone else. His speed also makes him close to an average defender in CF, IMO, but I'm no expert on where his defense is at, this moment.

    I have not been big on Duran hype, and I do not think he is a lock to be a plus CF'er in MLB, especially in 2021, but there is certainly a chance he is an overall plus, right now.

    If Cordero comes through, we don't need Duran, this year. If he doesn't we can use Chavis in LF, and maybe Renfroe and Chavis's offense can outweigh the ,losses on defense.

    We have multiple ways to make the OF a plus, including using Kiki in CF.
    Did you just insinuate that Cordero, Renfroe, and Verdugo could be a “plus” outfield or that you could get a plus outfield with Kike out there? You talking defense or overall? Cause Renfroe has had one season where he’s been good offensively, Cordero has had zero, and Kike can barely hit.

  6. #36
    No one is pretending the Sox still wouldn't have a high payroll just with names they owe money to from pre-Bloom... just as no one is pretending that the next three-year contract inked by a new player or an extended core guy will be Bloom's first. And good point about assembling a roster of pre-arb MLBers -- it's been working for Moneyball teams for a long time.

  7. #37
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Prospecting is an in exact science...
    What about the "prospecting" that shows the Sox rotation tied for 15th and just 1.0 away from 11th and a pen rated 14th and just 1.0 away from 8th? (fangraphs)

    Overall, we are "prospected" 14th, and yes, we play a tough schedule, but projecting wins in the 70's is a bit more wishful than factual. The Sox are about 2,0 WAR away from 10th place- average of above average. (We are also 2.0 away from 15th.)
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  8. #38
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber
    "Market rate" includes health concerns. What would ERod have gotten as a FA, this winter. If GMs listened to you and your armchair prognosis, he'd get way less than he would have pre-COVID.
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  9. #39
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    Did you just insinuate that Cordero, Renfroe, and Verdugo could be a “plus” outfield or that you could get a plus outfield with Kike out there? You talking defense or overall? Cause Renfroe has had one season where he’s been good offensively, Cordero has had zero, and Kike can barely hit.
    What's your definition of "good offensively?" Also, moon did say "IF" Cordero comes through. He has the skillset to be an above average outfielder, he just hasn't stayed healthy.

    Verdugo should be one of the best OFers in the league as he was last year.

    Renfroe is just a platoon guy. That's about it.

    The team is really missing that 4th OFer that would be the everyday CFer while Verdugo is in RF and Cordero/Renfroe share LF.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvp 78 View Post
    I'm not sure it's a "weak" point. I think it'll be average. The rotation should be about average too. The offense will be easily top 10 if not top 5.
    Agreed, and fangraphs places both the rotation and pen about average of slightly better than average. Our defense is weak, but I assume that is part ofr our pitcher's projected numbers.

    Our offense is top 5 or 6, although fangraphs rates our batting at 11th or 12th.
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    The pen was one of the many weak parts in 2020, but mainly weakened by the weakest part: the starting notation. If the starters can improve to mediocre, the pen could be above-average.
    This is so true.

    Even in 2019, many blamed the pen, when the starters were clearly at fault for the vast majority of our losses. I actually presented a game by game analysis that showed the starters lost way more games for us than the pen, and that didn'y even factor in the fact that starters not going even 3-4 innings taxes the pen beyond reasonability.
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  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Surprise contenders often seem to "discover" a young pitcher by mid-season who becomes a major contributor and infuses hope. Who will be that guy in Boston? Can we even identify a candidate on the farm -- especially, now that Mata is out?

    Can the Sox not draft Rocker or Leiter #4 if either is still on the board in July? We know how low the odds are for using first-round picks on pitchers, but opportunities are rare for adding mound talent with legitimate high-upside to a system. By all accounts the Vandy pitchers are exceptional; it's not like media outlets were drooling over who would get Trey Ball a decade ago.

    Tampa has the Number One ranked farm right now, and a lot is based on arms; it's also a caution against predicting the Sox to win more than the Rays (even without Snell).
    Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold?

    How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?
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  13. #43
    TalkSox Ascended Master mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Could Houck be "that guy?" Maybe Seabold?

    How about someone who is not a surprise young guys but rather Pivetta or just one of our injury prone starters actually giving us 180 IP (like Eovaldi or Richards)?
    I have no confidence in Pivetta. Houck has the highest ceiling of the bunch, but I think is most likely to just be a bullpen arm at some point. I think Seabold could be a solid #4 in the rotation, but I don't think he'd ever peak much higher than that (probably has the highest floor of those 3 guys).
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    ( I won't say the "C word.")

  14. #44
    Deity Bellhorn04's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    I'm not a pessimist, but you'd have to be quite an optimist to think nothing has changed in the way this franchise is doing business going forward... not when we haven't heard one peep out of the principal owner in over a year.
    Owners don't have to peep. They just have to sign.

    Henry has never been the most loquacious fellow. And it doesn't help that most everything he has said about players or payroll has been turned against him somehow.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    A heathy Sale was probably looking at a Scherzer contract...
    I do like the SID acronym.
    Championships since purchase by John Henry group: Red Sox 4 Yankees 1

    The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 postseason games against the Yankees.

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