A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

The Sox roster seems to be more or less set. Who the 25th and 26th man will be is still in doubt, but it is time for Part II of the 2021 season.

The Part I link is: https://www.talksox.com/forum/thread...07#post1373407

I am pretty sure nobody can say we have not improved from last year, but improving from being near the worst in MLB can be hard to quantify. I like notion’s point about Weber being our #3 starter, last year, and now he’s not even the #3 starter at AAA, and the extent of change and improvement goes well beyond Weber.

Here is what we have moved on from 2020’s disastrous season:

Pitching IP (rank in IP 2020) ERA:
43 (3) 4.40 Weber
30 (5) 4.80 Mazza
29 (6) 8.16 Godley
20 (10) 7.08 Springs
16 (13) 5.74 Osich
14 (14) 7.07 Covey
14 (14) 7.71 Kickham
13 (16) 4.73 Stock
13 (16) 9.75 Walden
10 (20) 5.59 Hembree
8 (23) 4.50 Triggs
7 (25) 4.05 Workman
5 (26) 21.21 Lever
4 (27) 2.08 Tapia
224 IP Total (43% of 524 Total in 2020)

Likely less IP than the pro-rated 2020 season:
30 (4) 3.26 Valdez
26 (7) 5.61 Brewer
20 (11) 5.95 Brice
11 (18) 15.55 Hart
9 (21) 18.60 Hall
96 IP Total (18%of 2020 Total)

Combined, we will likely see about 60% of our 2020 IP, replaced by new pitchers or pitchers expected to pitch more, this year.

Here are the pitchers who had 0 IP with the Sox last year:
ERod, Sale, Richards, Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura, Whitlock, Seabold, Bazardo

Here are the pitchers expected to see their IP increase from their pro-rated 2020 IP:
Pivetta, Houck, DHern, Taylor

I see a chance for vast improvement with our pitching staff from 2020 and 2019. Here were our IP leaders in 2019 with their ERAs:
203/ 3.81 ERod
174/ 5.52 Porcello
147/ 4.40 Sale
107/ 4.28 Price
78/ 3.81 Walden
72/ 1.88 Workman
68/ 5.99 Eovaldi
64/ 3.78 Barnes
56/ 5.43 Velazquez
56/ 4.85 Brasier
55/ 4.12 Brewer
54/ 6.20 Cashner
47/ 3.04 Taylor
41/ 5.09 Weber
40/ 6.02 Johnson
40/ 3.86 Hembree
31/ 5.81 J Smith
30/ 4.45 D Hern
23/ 3.86 Lakins, 20/ 9.74 Shawaryn, 19/ 7.71 Thornburg, 15/7.36 Chacin, 12/6.94 Poyner, 8/8.64 Kelley, 6/8.53 Wright.

Projected IP for 2021 (ERA)- 1470 Total
190 ERod 3.80
180 Perez 4.50
160 Pivetta 4.40
160 Eovaldi 4.40
150 Richards 4.20
110 Houck 4.20
70 Sale 3.60
70 Andriese 3.80
70 DHern 3.80
60 Ottavino 3.00
60 Barnes 3.00
50 Sawamura 3.50
40 Brasier 3.80
40 Taylor 3.80
30 Whitlock 4.80
30 Valdez 5.00
(We will likely use 20+ pitchers. I listed 16.)


Fielding Pro-rated 2020 innings (2.7 x2020) by innings:

Catcher
963 Vazquez
427 Plawecki (+26 others)

1B:
489 Chavis
474 Dalbec
446 Moreland (+5 others)

2B:
549 Peraza
322 Arauz
294 Arroyo
165 Chavis (+86 others)
3B:
1283 Devers
70 Arauz
41 Dalbec (+22 others)

SS:
1183 Bogaerts
117 Lin
56 Arauz (+51 others)

LF:
452 Verdugo
270 Beni
258 Chavis
153 Munoz(+289 others)

CF:
1271 JBJ
94 Pillar (+49 others)

RF:
666 Verdugo
484 Pillar
81 JD (+184 others)

My 2021 Projections of Innings by position (1470 per position):

Catcher:
1000 Vazquez
400 Plawecki
70 (Herrman, Hernandez, Wong, Bandy)

1B:
1100 Dalbec
300 Chavis
70 Marwin

2B:
1000 Hernandez
200 Arroyo
200 Chavis
70 Marwin

3B:
1300 Devers
100 Dalbec
70 Arroyo (Marwin)

SS:
1300 Bogaerts
170 Arroyo (Arauz)

LF:
500 Cordero
400 Renfroe
400 Chavis
170 Marwin

CF:
500 Cordero
400 Verdugo
300 Hernandez
270 Duran

RF:
900 Verdugo
570 Renfroe

Total:
1300: Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo, Hernandez
1200: Dalbec
1000: Vazquez, Renfroe, Cordero
900: Chavis
400: Plawecki, Arroyo, Marwin
300: Duran

Batting:

Lost from 2020 (pro-rated PA- 2.7 x 2020 PAs)
PA/OPS
586/ .801 JBJ
340/ .795 Pillar
324/ .617 Peraza
213/1.177 Moreland
150/ .355 Lin
140/ .442 Beni

Added for 2021:
Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero, Marwin, Duran/Casas/Downs
More from: Dalbec, Arroyo/Arauz

Projections:
2020>2021 OPS Player (PAs)
.793>.950 Devers (650)
.680>.850 JD M (650)
.867>.875 Bogey (650)
.844>.875 Verdugo (650)
.680> .740 Hernandez (650)
.959> .800 Dalbec (600)
.645> .775 Renfroe (550)
.800>.775 Vazquez (500)
.733> .775 Cordero (500)
.736> .700 Arroyo (250)
.857> .700 Plawecki (200)
.606> .700 Marwin (200)

Budget

A look at the 2021 budget in Lux Tax Dollars:
25.6 Sale
22.0 JD
20.0 Bogey
17.0 Eovaldi
10.0 Richards
8.92 Ottavino
8.30 ERod
7.00 EHern
5.00 Perez
4.58 Devers
4.52 Vaz
4.50 Barnes
3.10 Renfroe
3.00 Marwin
2.10 Andriese
1.60 Plawecki
1.50 Sawamura
1.25 Brasier
0.87 Brice
0.80 Cordero
4.20 0-3 year players
2.26 40 man roster players

-1.77 Ottavino
2.8 Beni
13.75 Pedey
16.00 Price

15.5 Player Benefits

TOTAL: 204.4M (Cots Contracts)
$5.6M under the tax line

I think we’ll do way better than 2020, but it’s hard to project when we don’t know how many IP we get or how well certain pitchers do. There are also big questions about JD, Cordero and other non pitchers.

I project 86 wins and a close race for the last WC slot.

[moonslav59]

My projected 26 man opening day roster:

IL: Sale, Brasier & Cordero
AAA (Bubble) : Houck, Duran, Arauz

14 Pitchers:
ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetta, Perez
Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Andriese, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock, Valdez

C: Vazquez & Plawecki
1B: Dalbec
2B: Hernandez
3B: Devers
SS: Bogaerts
LF: Chavis
CF: Verdugo
RF: Renfroe
DH: Martinez
UT: Arroyo & Marwin

Since AAA does not start until May, I'd suggest we start Duran or Houck with the Sox and Valdez in AAA.

[Swiharts Ghost]

My projected 26 man opening day roster:

IL: Sale, Brasier & Cordero
AAA (Bubble) : Houck, Duran, Arauz

14 Pitchers:
ERod, Eovaldi, Richards, Pivetta, Perez
Ottavino, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Andriese, Taylor, Brice, Whitlock, Valdez

C: Vazquez & Plawecki
1B: Dalbec
2B: Hernandez
3B: Devers
SS: Bogaerts
LF: Chavis
CF: Verdugo
RF: Renfroe
DH: Martinez
UT: Arroyo & Marwin

Since AAA does not start until May, I'd suggest we start Duran or Houck with the Sox and Valdez in AAA.

Been out of town Moon thanks for this .Have a question about Dalbec he reminds me a lot of the Big Donkey but he has such easy power ! I love this kid he’s like able and a player who could lift a team .The 37 percent strikeout is obviously high but I just could care less knowing what will undoubtedly come back in spades .Moon I guess I’m excited to have a homegrown power hitter finally can’t wait for the season to start and expect bigger things than most from this team .i have learned a lot about the power of coective positivity And hope for our small group here to influence others not only with our team but our families and friends moving forward .I won’t be here too often to much delight I’m sure but while I’m here I’m thankful for everyone here .

[moonslav59]

Been out of town Moon thanks for this .Have a question about Dalbec he reminds me a lot of the Big Donkey but he has such easy power ! I love this kid he’s like able and a player who could lift a team .The 37 percent strikeout is obviously high but I just could care less knowing what will undoubtedly come back in spades .Moon I guess I’m excited to have a homegrown power hitter finally can’t wait for the season to start and expect bigger things than most from this team .

K's are over rated- both for batters and pitchers.

K's suck, if a batter has a .650 OPS, but Dalbec looks to be a .350+ OBP guys who can hit 35+ HRs over 550+ PAs. If he can do that, he can K 350 times, for all I care.

[Sox75]

93 wins! That's my call, & I'm sticking to it.

[jacksonianmarch]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

[mvp 78]

They’ll finish in the 70s. If they weren’t in a division with three legit playoff contenders, I’d say 80, but even with the worst team in baseball in the division, they’ll have 57 games vs NYY, TB, and TOR. The pen is bad. The rotation isn’t much better. As time matches on, they’ll get worse and worse, especially if they sell off pieces.

As time marches on:
Sale comes back
younger studs get promoted

Not sure how that makes them worse. They should be better in the 2nd half.

[jacksonianmarch]

And who, pray tell, are these “younger studs”?

[mvp 78]

And who, pray tell, are these “younger studs”?

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

[kenmeister]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

But the pen does seem like a weak point. My hope is that DHern turns out to be great.

This is a good take. Barnes turns 31 in June and is gone by July unless the Sox are in contention... and maybe even if they are. Bloom passed on many better free agent relievers this winter, so there is little chance he'll keep Barnes and Ottavino, who may be his best trade chips this summer.

This assumes Bloom won't take any Yankee fans' advice and deal ERod, the workhorse ace in his prime and most immediate candidate for a decent longterm extension.

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

[Bellhorn04]

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

I have a ton of confidence that if JH tells Bloom he can spend up to the tax threshold or a little over every year, he'll do it...

[jacksonianmarch]

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

Prospecting is an in exact science. Montero was the top prospect in baseball, so there’s no shame in thinking he’d be better than he was. Although Cash did sell high on him, now didn’t he?

I do not think Durran ends up as a big league starter. He’s not a good defender at this juncture, so you can’t say he offsets his offensive inefficiencies with his glove. His power is nil right now. He doesn’t work counts or take walks and also K’s more than a slap hitter should. So he is a BABIP dependent hitter with limited defensive prowess and doesn’t walk enough. Can’t steal 1b.

Downs I like. Downs, I also surmise, will spend most of not all of 21 in the minors. He saw a handful of games at AA in 19 and is only 22 years old. But I love the package. Power is there, eye is there, contact is above average, reasonable speed with SB instincts, and soft hands. He’s a real prospect, not like Durran who seems to be a hyped up pretender, IMO. In order for Downs to come up, the Sox would need to either have an injury to Bogaerts or no production at all from Marwin, Chavis and Kike. If it gets that far down the line, then you’ve lost some games due to that lack of production

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a good take. Barnes turns 31 in June and is gone by July unless the Sox are in contention... and maybe even if they are. Bloom passed on many better free agent relievers this winter, so there is little chance he'll keep Barnes and Ottavino, who may be his best trade chips this summer.

This assumes Bloom won't take any Yankee fans' advice and deal ERod, the workhorse ace in his prime and most immediate candidate for a decent longterm extension.

However, the next longterm extension Bloom offers anyone will be his first in Boston. As much as some fans have the utmost confidence in such a sudden change in Bloom's approach as Chief Officer, seeing will be believing...

If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber

[notin]

If you sign ERod to an extension now, it’ll be market rate. Bloom isn’t going to lock him up at market rate without seeing how he does this year post myocarditis. If he’s on the team and healthy at the deadline, you deal him and just tell him before hand that you’ll see him on the open market. Pull a Chapman with the Yanks. Got us Gleyber

That doesn’t make sense.

If ERod signs an extension now, it would likely be the same as Sale, a Suspected Injury Discount. THAT is why you wait on him a bit.

But then there is no rule against extending him during the year...