A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Ideally, he'd be a SP in AAA this year, but as a Rule V guy, he has to stay up or be offered back to the Yanks (which isn't going to happen). So he may just be stuck with the long reliever role this season and then sent to one of the fall leagues to start stretching out for next year. A lot will depend on how the team goes; if the Sox stay in contention, they aren't going to do it during the season this year, If they fall down towards last year's levels, they very well might.

My guess is, he will have several chances to eventually pitch 4+ innings in relief, if Cora wants him to.

Also, we all know Houck is the 6th starter, who may win the 5 slot, but chances are, we'll need a 7th starter often enough to give Whitlock a chance to start, again, if Cora and Bloom want him to do so.

[moonslav59]

Well, they can make a deal with the Yankees to keep him. Either a trade for another player or just a cash settlement. But for all we know, they tried this and Cashman was not amenable...

With a 26 man roster, and our great need for good young pitching arms, he isn't going anywhere.

We can find him all the innings he needs at the big level. The only problem that may occur, is if he starts sucking, and we want to keep him pitching, but not at the expense of the big club. (That's a real possibility, but I'm trying to stay positive, this year.)

[Nick]

With a 26 man roster, and our great need for good young pitching arms, he isn't going anywhere.

We can find him all the innings he needs at the big level. The only problem that may occur, is if he starts sucking, and we want to keep him pitching, but not at the expense of the big club. (That's a real possibility, but I'm trying to stay positive, this year.)

I really don't know what else he needs to work on. Starter pitches, command of strike zone. I can see him getting hurt.

Nine innings pitched and 0 walks. That tells me more than anything else.

[moonslav59]

I really don't know what else he needs to work on. Starter pitches, command of strike zone. I can see him getting hurt.

Nine innings pitched and 0 walks. That tells me more than anything else.

Most young pitchers are "working on something" they want to improve or add.

Maybe all he needs to work on is being stretched out for longer and longer outings.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Last 14 Days:

1.088 Devers
1.077 JD
1.056 Verdugo
1.039 Bogey

.872 Hernandez
.837 Arroyo

.766 Vazquez
.749 Dalbec
.696 Cordero

.631 Marwin
.607 Plawecki
.571 Renfroe

Pitcher by IP and ERA/OPS Against- last 14 days

18 Eovaldi 3.44/.646
14 Perez 5.93/7.85
10 Richards 1.80/.606
10 ERod 3.60/.671
10 Pivetta 5.59/.896

7.0 Barnez 1.29/.255
5.2 Andriese 0.00/.634
5.2 Whitlock 0.00/.000
5.1 Sawamura 3.38/.730
5.1 Houck 5.06/.864
5.0 Valdez 3.60/.387
4.2 DHern 0.00/.600
4.2 Taylor 1.93/.578
3.1 Ottavino 8.10/.764
3.0 Brice 9.00/1.227
1.0 Bazardo 0.00/.400

[moonslav59]

When you look at the practical aspects of setting a batting order, you have to look at a balance between right and left hand hitters. We currently have the following mix, which is right hand heavy. Bringing a lefty substitute for a righty makes some sense. I took a guess at who will be with the club in 2022 and who is questionable at this juncture. That might also be a consideration as to whether a prospect is brought up.

Right Handed

Arroyo
Bogaerts
Dalbec
Hernandez
Martinez
Plawecki
Renfroe
Vazquez

Left Handed

Codero
Devers
Verdugo

Switch

Gonzalez

Likely prospect pool 2021

Duran L
Chavis R
Downs R

So far, this year, the Sox are...

.858 vs RHPs

.728 vs LHPs

(.889 when a RH'er starts/ .674 when a lefty starts.)

[moonslav59]

We all have seen how JD has been Mr. Clutch, but check out these 2021 "Late & Close" numbers:

1.727 Verdugo (1.950 High Leverage)
1.250 Arroyo (.800)
1.194 JD (1.007)
1.159 Marwin (.814)
.958 Vazquez (1.067)
.829 Dalbec (.633)
.818 Devers (.528)

.819 Team (.781)

.619 Renfroe (.393)
.495 Bogey (.533)
.400 Cordero (.833)
.182 Kike (.747)
.000 Plawecki (.000)

[Maxbialystock]

We all have seen how JD has been Mr. Clutch, but check out these 2021 "Late & Close" numbers:

1.727 Verdugo (1.950 High Leverage)
1.250 Arroyo (.800)
1.194 JD (1.007)
1.159 Marwin (.814)
.958 Vazquez (1.067)
.829 Dalbec (.633)
.818 Devers (.528)

.819 Team (.781)

.619 Renfroe (.393)
.495 Bogey (.533)
.400 Cordero (.833)
.182 Kike (.747)
.000 Plawecki (.000)

Neat. Thanks. Early days, of course, but I always say that a small sample is a whole lot better than no sample.

This year I think we have seen--overall, not necessarily in late and close games--that the predicted mainstays (JDM, Devers, Bogie, Vazquez) have all been pretty good.

The surprise to me is all the other guys who have made a difference. As I keep saying ad nauseum, to date (18 games, 1/9th of the season) the Sox lead MLB in runs scored and OPS. There are exactly zero experts who predicted that as a possibility, even for 1/9th of the season.

I look forward to your insights for the bullpen, which to me is also a big surprise. In 18 games to date the rotation has achieved just two quality starts (defined, I think, as 6 innings and giving up no more than 2 or 3 runs). The Dodgers, on the other hand, already have 12 quality starts. There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

[5GoldGloves:OF,75]

There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

... and for preserving the physical and mental health -- and effectiveness -- of bullpens.

[moonslav59]

Neat. Thanks. Early days, of course, but I always say that a small sample is a whole lot better than no sample.

This year I think we have seen--overall, not necessarily in late and close games--that the predicted mainstays (JDM, Devers, Bogie, Vazquez) have all been pretty good.

The surprise to me is all the other guys who have made a difference. As I keep saying ad nauseum, to date (18 games, 1/9th of the season) the Sox lead MLB in runs scored and OPS. There are exactly zero experts who predicted that as a possibility, even for 1/9th of the season.

I look forward to your insights for the bullpen, which to me is also a big surprise. In 18 games to date the rotation has achieved just two quality starts (defined, I think, as 6 innings and giving up no more than 2 or 3 runs). The Dodgers, on the other hand, already have 12 quality starts. There is nothing sacred about "quality starts," but they can be a useful tool for comparing rotations.

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

4+ IP 0-1 ERs
5+ IP 0-2 ERs
6+ IP 0-3 ERs
8+ IP 0-4 ERs

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

[Nick]

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

4+ IP 0-1 ERs
5+ IP 0-2 ERs
6+ IP 0-3 ERs
8+ IP 0-4 ERs

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

I'm going to be a jerk here.

Aren't you and Kimmi and others on this board praised breathlessly how Rick Porcello was God's gift to starting pitching because of INNINGS HE PITCHED?

You loved the idea of 6 IP and 3 ERs.

Can you survive a season with starters giving the team less than 4 innings?

I don't consider 3.2 innings a quality start under any circumstances, unless I'm a Rays fan.

[notin]

I think something like this would be more useful than Quality Starts. If 6 IP and 3 ER is quality, why aren't these as well?

4+ IP 0-1 ERs
5+ IP 0-2 ERs
6+ IP 0-3 ERs
8+ IP 0-4 ERs

I'd also rather have a starter give me 3.2 IP with 0 ERs than one giving me 6 IP with 3 ERs.

Yeah! Opener logic.

To me, that is very dependent on how effective the bullpen is and how often they are used. The occasional short shutout start is nice, but when you need to rely on the bullpen for over 5 innings every game (or even nearly every game), that can lead to a lot of long term issues.

Although it probably is worth noting that in a double header, a 3.2 IP 0 ER start does look significantly better than a 6 IP 3 ER start....

[dgalehouse]

I think folks are going to have to start taking this ballclub seriously as a real contender. They are playing with a lot of confidence and seem to be one of those teams that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Also , the rest of the A.L. does not look especially daunting. Could be a very interesting season.

[Maxbialystock]

I think folks are going to have to start taking this ballclub seriously as a real contender. They are playing with a lot of confidence and seem to be one of those teams that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Also , the rest of the A.L. does not look especially daunting. Could be a very interesting season.

Hey, knock it off. The title of this thread is a realistic view of 2021, which is what you're trying to provide. Wrong! The real purpose of this thread is to discuss stats, acquisitions, etc. [note to moonslav: I hope you can take a joke]

But I do like that line "greater than the sum of its parts" because it fits these Sox. Actually, the Sox "parts" are pretty good, but none of them have names that espn or whoever wants to tout. The Yankees and Dodgers are currently cornering that market.

The Boston Red Sox are currently in the same niche as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics. Playing good ball, but bereft of names and/or huge salaries. Borrriiinnnggg!

[moonslav59]

I'm going to be a jerk here.

Aren't you and Kimmi and others on this board praised breathlessly how Rick Porcello was God's gift to starting pitching because of INNINGS HE PITCHED?

You loved the idea of 6 IP and 3 ERs.

Can you survive a season with starters giving the team less than 4 innings?

I don't consider 3.2 innings a quality start under any circumstances, unless I'm a Rays fan.

I loved the Porcello extension, but I was not for bringing him back.

Had we signed him instead of Perez, I wouldn't have complained.

I get the value of IP and how it "saves the pen," but I still think 3.2 IP and 0 ERs is as good or better than 6 IP with 3 ERs.

I'm not saying call it a "quality start," but I wouldn't mind some new modified version of QS being added to baseball vernacular.

Do you consider 6 IP and 3 ER "quality?" That's a 4.50 ERA. Sure, it's decent, but not "quality, in my book.