Register now to remove this ad

Page 216 of 229 FirstFirst ... 116166206214215216217218226 ... LastLast
Results 3,226 to 3,240 of 3421

Thread: A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

  1. #3226
    Deity
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    23,846
    Quote Originally Posted by Bellhorn04 View Post
    You talk the talk, but I walk the walk, because I don't question his decisions.

    (Just having some fun here.)

    Hey, I’m still on board with Kike leading off. Although my logic probably differs from most people’s...

  2. #3227
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    No, but they are cheaper free agents at 31 than at 27...
    No doubt, but a 30 to 31 year old good player has higher team value in an arb year than as a FA.

    Look what people pay 30 and older players as free agents. Surely, if Duran ends up being a very good player, having him another year would be a good thing. Maybe valuable enough to tip the balance of the choice made on when to call up.
    Sox 4 Ever

  3. #3228
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Maybe Duranís path to MLB would have been faster had he stayed at 2b...
    Maybe.

    I guess they moved him for aa reason.
    Sox 4 Ever

  4. #3229
    Deity
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    23,846
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    No doubt, but a 30 to 31 year old good player has higher team value in an arb year than as a FA.

    Look what people pay 30 and older players as free agents. Surely, if Duran ends up being a very good player, having him another year would be a good thing. Maybe valuable enough to tip the balance of the choice made on when to call up.
    There is a delicate balance.

    For a lot of players, arb money in their final year is higher than the AAV of free agency, especially if they are over 30. This benefits a team in terms of years (since it’s one) but for some teams it can force decisions to be made.


    While it’s not likely a 4th arb year could prevent the Sox from, say, extending Devers, it’s not a ridiculous postulate that it might limit them to signing a lesser relief pitcher or closer. Most teams prefer not to hamstring themselves as opposed to more financial flexibility. Even Boston...

  5. #3230
    Deity
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Posts
    23,846
    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Maybe.

    I guess they moved him for aa reason.
    One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...

  6. #3231
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    There is a delicate balance.

    For a lot of players, arb money in their final year is higher than the AAV of free agency, especially if they are over 30. This benefits a team in terms of years (since itís one) but for some teams it can force decisions to be made.


    While itís not likely a 4th arb year could prevent the Sox from, say, extending Devers, itís not a ridiculous postulate that it might limit them to signing a lesser relief pitcher or closer. Most teams prefer not to hamstring themselves as opposed to more financial flexibility. Even Boston...
    You don't have to go to arb with a player.

    I think a player who's value is greater as an arb player than a FA is usually let go or traded for peanuts, and it's a very rare thing, too.

    Look at the JBJ case. Many felt giving him that last arb was overpaying him, myself included, but who knows what he'd have gotten as a FA, especially if it was a 1 year deal.

    I think we were mostly all surprised at what he got as a FA a year older than his last arb year, here.
    Sox 4 Ever

  7. #3232
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...
    I'm not so sure. Had keeping him at 2B speeded up his arrival to the bigs by a year, the timing would be just about perfect.
    Sox 4 Ever

  8. #3233
    TalkSox Godhead mvp 78's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    43,072
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...
    He was a 7th round pick with lots of speed. His defense in the IF wasn't that great to begin with. I think they probably figured that they could utilize his speed more in the OF.
    Building? Back up!

  9. #3234
    TalkSox Godhead mvp 78's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    43,072
    Also, it's not like the Sox MiLB talent level was stocked with middle infield guys when they moved him to the OF. I think they moved him based on his profile, not what the rest of the system looked like. At that point, the OF looked like the surest bet for the future (Mookie/JBJ/Beni).
    Building? Back up!

  10. #3235
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    April and May Sox OPS

    April >> May
    1.175 JD .801
    .958 Devers .933
    .915 Bogey .961
    .862 Verdugo .755
    .763 Arroyo .513
    .671 Kike .728
    .638 Vaz .678
    .619 Dalbec .672
    .589 Marwin .537
    .485 Renfroe .938
    .452 Cordero .558

    Is there anything about the April and May numbers that point to the idea that what you did recently is a good indicator of what you will do in the future? (Like from one month to the next?

    Only one player stayed within 25 points of his April OPS (Devers) and only 2 players stayed within 40 points (Devers & Vaz).

    6 of the 11 stayed within 100 points-so basically 50-50.

    3 of the 11 saw a change or 250 or more points:

    Renfroe+453
    Arroyo +250
    JD -.374
    Last edited by moonslav59; 06-11-2021 at 02:11 PM.
    Sox 4 Ever

  11. #3236
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Here is a look at some AL contender's line-up balance and make-up based on batters with 100 or more PAs.

    Batters over .900+, 800-899, 700-799, 600-699, 500-599, under 500

    11 BOS 2-2-2-3-2-0
    12 TBR 0-3-2-5-2-0
    11 NYY 1-1-4-5-0-0
    10 CWS 0-5-3-1-1-0
    11 OAK 1-2-1-5-1-0
    10 HOU 1-6-1-1-1-0

    We have the most over .900 (2), but HOU (7) and CWS (5) have more than our 4 over .800.

    How about pitchers with 90+ PAs against and OPS Against:

    <.499, 500-599, 600-699, 700-799, 800-899, 900+

    11 BOS: 1-1-3-4-1-1
    11 TBR: 0-3-4-4-0-0
    11 NYY: 0-5-4-2-0-0
    11 CWS: 0-5-3-1-2-0
    11 OAK: 1-2-4-2-2-0
    11 HOU: 0-2-7-2-0-0


    Last edited by moonslav59; 06-11-2021 at 02:41 PM.
    Sox 4 Ever

  12. #3237
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    And who do the Sox turn to if Duran doesnít dazzle in his first 102 plate appearances?
    They continue to look. Is it better to try to find a player who can help or stay with one who isn't getting it done? My answer is bring alternatives on for a try. I do think once the Sox has given a kid a chance to play in the Olympics, they won't then withdraw him.

  13. #3238
    I'll take seventh year of service of a player, albeit possibility for higher compensation than to have six years and having to offer another 5 year deal for his past performance.

    You can always trade him the summer of year 6. There will be takers knowing the guy is on the hook for another year.

    This board now wants nothing to do with seventh year team control due to 4 arbitrations? Unreal.

  14. #3239
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I'll take seventh year of service of a player, albeit possibility for higher compensation than to have six years and having to offer another 5 year deal for his past performance.

    You can always trade him the summer of year 6. There will be takers knowing the guy is on the hook for another year.

    This board now wants nothing to do with seventh year team control due to 4 arbitrations? Unreal.
    I'm not hearing the board saying they don't want the extra year.

    I hear one guy saying maybe it's not worth as much as some of us think it is.
    Sox 4 Ever

  15. #3240
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
    Location
    Sugar Land, Texas
    Posts
    42,402
    Quote Originally Posted by oldtimer View Post
    They continue to look. Is it better to try to find a player who can help or stay with one who isn't getting it done? My answer is bring alternatives on for a try. I do think once the Sox has given a kid a chance to play in the Olympics, they won't then withdraw him.
    How long do you go before you determine a player cannot turn things around?

    We stuck with Renfroe and Arroyo for about as long as Dalbec and Cordero.

    Why are you so certain a player's last few weeks or months play is the best predictor of what is to come?

    The evidence does not support that theory.

    Look, I'm all for giving Dalbec a demotion to work things out, but it's not a no brainer, and the guy we should call up- Chavis- has about the same chance as Dalbec and others of doing okay going forward.
    Sox 4 Ever

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •