Originally Posted by Bellhorn04
Hey, I’m still on board with Kike leading off. Although my logic probably differs from most people’s...
Hey, I’m still on board with Kike leading off. Although my logic probably differs from most people’s...
No doubt, but a 30 to 31 year old good player has higher team value in an arb year than as a FA.
Look what people pay 30 and older players as free agents. Surely, if Duran ends up being a very good player, having him another year would be a good thing. Maybe valuable enough to tip the balance of the choice made on when to call up.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Maybe.
I guess they moved him for aa reason.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
There is a delicate balance.
For a lot of players, arb money in their final year is higher than the AAV of free agency, especially if they are over 30. This benefits a team in terms of years (since it’s one) but for some teams it can force decisions to be made.
While it’s not likely a 4th arb year could prevent the Sox from, say, extending Devers, it’s not a ridiculous postulate that it might limit them to signing a lesser relief pitcher or closer. Most teams prefer not to hamstring themselves as opposed to more financial flexibility. Even Boston...
One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...
You don't have to go to arb with a player.
I think a player who's value is greater as an arb player than a FA is usually let go or traded for peanuts, and it's a very rare thing, too.
Look at the JBJ case. Many felt giving him that last arb was overpaying him, myself included, but who knows what he'd have gotten as a FA, especially if it was a 1 year deal.
I think we were mostly all surprised at what he got as a FA a year older than his last arb year, here.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
I'm not so sure. Had keeping him at 2B speeded up his arrival to the bigs by a year, the timing would be just about perfect.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
He was a 7th round pick with lots of speed. His defense in the IF wasn't that great to begin with. I think they probably figured that they could utilize his speed more in the OF.
Also, it's not like the Sox MiLB talent level was stocked with middle infield guys when they moved him to the OF. I think they moved him based on his profile, not what the rest of the system looked like. At that point, the OF looked like the surest bet for the future (Mookie/JBJ/Beni).
April and May Sox OPS
April >> May
1.175 JD .801
.958 Devers .933
.915 Bogey .961
.862 Verdugo .755
.763 Arroyo .513
.671 Kike .728
.638 Vaz .678
.619 Dalbec .672
.589 Marwin .537
.485 Renfroe .938
.452 Cordero .558
Is there anything about the April and May numbers that point to the idea that what you did recently is a good indicator of what you will do in the future? (Like from one month to the next?
Only one player stayed within 25 points of his April OPS (Devers) and only 2 players stayed within 40 points (Devers & Vaz).
6 of the 11 stayed within 100 points-so basically 50-50.
3 of the 11 saw a change or 250 or more points:
Renfroe+453
Arroyo +250
JD -.374
Last edited by moonslav59; 06-11-2021 at 02:11 PM.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
Here is a look at some AL contender's line-up balance and make-up based on batters with 100 or more PAs.
Batters over .900+, 800-899, 700-799, 600-699, 500-599, under 500
11 BOS 2-2-2-3-2-0
12 TBR 0-3-2-5-2-0
11 NYY 1-1-4-5-0-0
10 CWS 0-5-3-1-1-0
11 OAK 1-2-1-5-1-0
10 HOU 1-6-1-1-1-0
We have the most over .900 (2), but HOU (7) and CWS (5) have more than our 4 over .800.
How about pitchers with 90+ PAs against and OPS Against:
<.499, 500-599, 600-699, 700-799, 800-899, 900+
11 BOS: 1-1-3-4-1-1
11 TBR: 0-3-4-4-0-0
11 NYY: 0-5-4-2-0-0
11 CWS: 0-5-3-1-2-0
11 OAK: 1-2-4-2-2-0
11 HOU: 0-2-7-2-0-0
Last edited by moonslav59; 06-11-2021 at 02:41 PM.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
They continue to look. Is it better to try to find a player who can help or stay with one who isn't getting it done? My answer is bring alternatives on for a try. I do think once the Sox has given a kid a chance to play in the Olympics, they won't then withdraw him.
I'll take seventh year of service of a player, albeit possibility for higher compensation than to have six years and having to offer another 5 year deal for his past performance.
You can always trade him the summer of year 6. There will be takers knowing the guy is on the hook for another year.
This board now wants nothing to do with seventh year team control due to 4 arbitrations? Unreal.
I'm not hearing the board saying they don't want the extra year.
I hear one guy saying maybe it's not worth as much as some of us think it is.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
How long do you go before you determine a player cannot turn things around?
We stuck with Renfroe and Arroyo for about as long as Dalbec and Cordero.
Why are you so certain a player's last few weeks or months play is the best predictor of what is to come?
The evidence does not support that theory.
Look, I'm all for giving Dalbec a demotion to work things out, but it's not a no brainer, and the guy we should call up- Chavis- has about the same chance as Dalbec and others of doing okay going forward.
When you say it's gonna happen now
When exactly do you mean?
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