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Thread: 2021 MLB draft

  1. #61
    TalkSox Godhead mvp 78's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    Oh it's very likely. If us under-informed folk like him so much, safe bet he is not a secret from the front offices around the league...
    If I had a back of round 1 pick, I think I'd go for a high upside guy like Hill rather than the usual Deven Marrero's that are there.
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  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    If Leiter is there at 4 and the Sox pass, should we be disappointed?

    It seems like we should be, but I can't pretend I go into this with equal information to the Sox front office (or any team's front office).

    MLB.com has Leiter going 7th, citing his size (6' and 195lbs) and his walk rate as reasons he falls. Now this draft was done in December, 2020, and Leiter has certainly has cut down on his walks (from 4.6BB/9 to 3.4BB/9) since then. But he is probably still close to 6' 195lbs...
    https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-in...draft-coverage

    I just read this story on MLB that says that depending on who goes first, Rocker would be the heaviest pitcher in draft history, and Leiter would tie for the shortest... Both have the genes of pro athletes (though one is a baseball player and the other is a football player).

    It also says Lawler's K-rate is up in high school, and Davis is raking; he also has a cannon arm, but most scouts rate him below avg. as a catcher and wonder if he should be moved to rightfield (like Harper).

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-in...draft-coverage

    I just read this story on MLB that says that depending on who goes first, Rocker would be the heaviest pitcher in draft history, and Leiter would tie for the shortest... Both have the genes of pro athletes (though one is a baseball player and the other is a football player).

    It also says Lawler's K-rate is up in high school, and Davis is raking; he also has a cannon arm, but most scouts rate him below avg. as a catcher and wonder if he should be moved to rightfield (like Harper).
    I've herard otherwise about Davis, but I've never seen him play, and, let's be honest, even if I had, I am totally unqualified to tell if a college catcher could stick at that position up to the majors. If the book on him is - might not stick at catcher, than, yeah, I'd pass on him, too. At the number 4 pick, anyway. Maybe gamble on him in another round if he falls.

    But that makes the fourth pick all the more difficult. Fabian is a hot name, but he does seem to have a ton of strikeouts (albeit with a good amount of walks) and is only hitting like .236 against college pitching this year so far. No idea how he will be, either, although I have heard he is a good defensive player.

    I have a feeling the Sox will take one of the shortstops - Lawlor, Mayer or McLain. But I'd love to see them add a high upside arm...

  4. #64
    King of TalkSox a700hitter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I've herard otherwise about Davis, but I've never seen him play, and, let's be honest, even if I had, I am totally unqualified to tell if a college catcher could stick at that position up to the majors. If the book on him is - might not stick at catcher, than, yeah, I'd pass on him, too. At the number 4 pick, anyway. Maybe gamble on him in another round if he falls.

    But that makes the fourth pick all the more difficult. Fabian is a hot name, but he does seem to have a ton of strikeouts (albeit with a good amount of walks) and is only hitting like .236 against college pitching this year so far. No idea how he will be, either, although I have heard he is a good defensive player.

    I have a feeling the Sox will take one of the shortstops - Lawlor, Mayer or McLain. But I'd love to see them add a high upside arm...
    They are all guessing, and they all copy each other.
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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by a700hitter View Post
    They are all guessing, and they all copy each other.
    I do think a lot of them do. But hey, I did the same thing with my 3 person mock draft a few posts earlier.

    To be fair, Baseball America does use scouting opinions and have field researchers and probably pays scouting bureaus for more info. But I have a feeling some of these blog forums like Bleacher Report are a little less thorough...

  6. #66
    I would take the catcher, H.Davis. I would love it if the Red Sox could get him under slot and take a hard to sign guy in the second round.

    The high school shortstops are impressive but the Red Sox will always have the resources to put together a top offensive team. You use the 4th pick of the draft to take something that isn't readily available. My second choice would be Hoglund. 4 might be a little high for Hoglund but if the Red Sox can get him at below slot, they can add a stud in round 2, while adding an impressive pitching prospect to the farm system.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    I do think a lot of them do. But hey, I did the same thing with my 3 person mock draft a few posts earlier.

    To be fair, Baseball America does use scouting opinions and have field researchers and probably pays scouting bureaus for more info. But I have a feeling some of these blog forums like Bleacher Report are a little less thorough...
    It's like nerds all vying for Penny's attention when they first met in Big Bang (or was that the new neighbor moving in upstairs)... except Sheldon, who waited a few years and dated the overlooked sure thing.*

    *obviously, these pop culture references are only symbols for actual associates that will remain nameless; call them Len, Howie and Raj... or Friedman, Cashman, and Blooman... or some guys I forgot at a singles bar (because nobody remembers a singles hitter).

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I would take the catcher, H.Davis. I would love it if the Red Sox could get him under slot and take a hard to sign guy in the second round.

    The high school shortstops are impressive but the Red Sox will always have the resources to put together a top offensive team. You use the 4th pick of the draft to take something that isn't readily available. My second choice would be Hoglund. 4 might be a little high for Hoglund but if the Red Sox can get him at below slot, they can add a stud in round 2, while adding an impressive pitching prospect to the farm system.
    When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it
    The rebuild is complete.

  9. #69
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it
    Maybe they think Davis is as good as anyone else available.
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  10. #70
    https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-dr...-mock-draft-30

    Sox mocked to Marcelo Mayer, who will be a top 5 pick in this draft no doubt. Kid can play. With Hill likely down with a UCL injury and Leiter/Rocker mocked to be gone by 4, it looks to be Hoglund as the next pitcher off the board and the talent gulf seems pretty large. In the MLB draft, you take the best talent available since it can be so hit or miss. You never draft for positional necessity unless you have equal grades between players
    The rebuild is complete.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-dr...-mock-draft-30

    Sox mocked to Marcelo Mayer, who will be a top 5 pick in this draft no doubt. Kid can play. With Hill likely down with a UCL injury and Leiter/Rocker mocked to be gone by 4, it looks to be Hoglund as the next pitcher off the board and the talent gulf seems pretty large. In the MLB draft, you take the best talent available since it can be so hit or miss. You never draft for positional necessity unless you have equal grades between players
    Agreed.

    All things even, I'd like a college player. They seem to be more reliable picks.

    Bloom does not have a great drafting record, but I doubt does not have the same talent evaluation team working with him, now.

    It's a big draft for the Sox, as is this IFA cycle.
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  12. #72
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    mymlbdraft.com and fueledbysports.com has Lawler 3rd, McLain 4th and Mayer 5th

    throughthefencebaseball.com has McLain 3rd and Lawler 4th

    cbs ranks the top prospects as such:
    1. Leiter
    2. Lawler
    3. Fabian
    4. Rocker
    5. Mayer
    6. Del Castillo
    7. Watson
    8. Davis

    I wonder, if someday,MLB will allow draft pick trading.

    Sox 4 Ever

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it
    It all depends what they think is "top talent." If they think someone like Texas RHP Ty Madden or A&M RHP Bryce Miller is a top talent, Bloom will take him.

    That said, the unexpected move by Bloom might be to take one of the remaining from Lawlor, Mayer or McLain...

  14. #74
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    It all depends what they think is "top talent." If they think someone like Texas RHP Ty Madden or A&M RHP Bryce Miller is a top talent, Bloom will take him.

    That said, the unexpected move by Bloom might be to take one of the remaining from Lawlor, Mayer or McLain...
    It's hard to know what Bloom will do. His MO in TB may not be relevant, since he had to draft players with their signability and bonus money in mind- not so much after the slot money system was created, but still...

    He'll take the best talent available, but who he thinks is the best may differ from what we think or what the "experts" think. He's not alone: there are often several "surprise picks" early in every draft.
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  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    It's hard to know what Bloom will do. His MO in TB may not be relevant, since he had to draft players with their signability and bonus money in mind- not so much after the slot money system was created, but still...

    He'll take the best talent available, but who he thinks is the best may differ from what we think or what the "experts" think. He's not alone: there are often several "surprise picks" early in every draft.
    You don't see it so much anymore, as the slot money system was created to prevent those Matt Bush signability draft picks. It does happen now, but more so with the underslot money in mind. THe most glaring example was the 2012 draft when Houston took Carlos Correa first overall, passing on the large #1 favorite Mark Appel (who would be drafted by Houston first overall the following season), along with others a highly regarded as Correa, including Kevin Gausman, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito and Mike Zunino. But Correa was no so much of a reach, as he was often mentioned as a candidate to go first and was a consensus top 6 pick. But Houston took him because he was willing to sign for underslot money, and the applied the savings to their next pick, a projected first rounder named Lance McCullers Jr, who was falling for signability reasons.

    The Royals made a similar move, taking Hunter Dozier at #8 the following year despite his inclusion in the first 20 picks of almost no mock draft that season. But they used the savings from his underslot signing to grab a falling Sean Manaea in the second round.

    Could Bloom try something similar in this draft? He couldn't last year as he had no second round pick (and yet he still made what many called a reach pick)...

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