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Thread: 2021 MLB draft

  1. #76
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    You don't see it so much anymore, as the slot money system was created to prevent those Matt Bush signability draft picks. It does happen now, but more so with the underslot money in mind. THe most glaring example was the 2012 draft when Houston took Carlos Correa first overall, passing on the large #1 favorite Mark Appel (who would be drafted by Houston first overall the following season), along with others a highly regarded as Correa, including Kevin Gausman, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito and Mike Zunino. But Correa was no so much of a reach, as he was often mentioned as a candidate to go first and was a consensus top 6 pick. But Houston took him because he was willing to sign for underslot money, and the applied the savings to their next pick, a projected first rounder named Lance McCullers Jr, who was falling for signability reasons.

    The Royals made a similar move, taking Hunter Dozier at #8 the following year despite his inclusion in the first 20 picks of almost no mock draft that season. But they used the savings from his underslot signing to grab a falling Sean Manaea in the second round.

    Could Bloom try something similar in this draft? He couldn't last year as he had no second round pick (and yet he still made what many called a reach pick)...
    Good points. Had we had a top 2 pick, I think it would be easy.

    It seems wide open at #4.
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  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    When you pick in the top 5, you don't play the under/over slot game unless you are the Pirates. You have a shot at a top talent, you take it
    The Astros did it in 2012...

  3. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    The Astros did it in 2012...
    They did, but Correia was a top talent and was someone they liked at 1 as well. If there are equal grades on a player and one costs less, go for it. But to draft a guy with a lower grade due to cost savings to grab someone who is free falling who might not be there at pick 2 is a risky game to play
    The rebuild is complete.

  4. #79
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    Here's Baseball America's mock draft 2012:

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ft-2-0-may-25/
    6. Correa
    8. D Marrero

    The Bleacher Report and others had Correa going 3rd.

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  5. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacksonianmarch View Post
    They did, but Correia was a top talent and was someone they liked at 1 as well. If there are equal grades on a player and one costs less, go for it. But to draft a guy with a lower grade due to cost savings to grab someone who is free falling who might not be there at pick 2 is a risky game to play
    .. which is exactly what they did.

    Although they obviously liked Appel, considering they took him number one overall the very next season...

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by moonslav59 View Post
    Here's Baseball America's mock draft 2012:

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ft-2-0-may-25/
    6. Correa
    8. D Marrero

    The Bleacher Report and others had Correa going 3rd.

    No one had him outside the top 6. Those names (Correa, Appel, Gausman, Buxton, Zunino and Giolito) were all etched into those top spots in any order. And only Appel was the flop...

  7. #82
    I wouldn't be surprised if Hoglund ends up being the best SP to come out of round 1. You just never know how things will unfold. Classic example: how many pitchers were taken in front of Roger Clemons in round 1 in the 1983 draft?

    Take Hoglund at 4, sign him to a below slot deal, and then spend that extra money in round 2. I'm leaning toward a SP in round 1, just because the Red Sox are loaded with position prospect studs already: Downs, Duran, Casas, Jimenez. And a few other position prospects could develop into major talents, such as Yorke and Jordan. With this level of talent in the system, the Red Sox can easily fill in a few holes through free agency.

    But the position of catcher is completely different and you often can't rely on free agency to find an elite catcher, which is why H.Davis is also an intriguing choice.

  8. #83
    Deity moonslav59's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised if Hoglund ends up being the best SP to come out of round 1. You just never know how things will unfold. Classic example: how many pitchers were taken in front of Roger Clemons in round 1 in the 1983 draft?

    Take Hoglund at 4, sign him to a below slot deal, and then spend that extra money in round 2. I'm leaning toward a SP in round 1, just because the Red Sox are loaded with position prospect studs already: Downs, Duran, Casas, Jimenez. And a few other position prospects could develop into major talents, such as Yorke and Jordan. With this level of talent in the system, the Red Sox can easily fill in a few holes through free agency.

    But the position of catcher is completely different and you often can't rely on free agency to find an elite catcher, which is why H.Davis is also an intriguing choice.
    I think you should always take who you think is the best player, regardless of position or slot money considerations, unless you have 2 or more players rated very similarly, which could be the case at pick #4, this year.

    That being said, I hope the Sox rate a college pitcher highly enough to take at pick 4. If they take someone else, I'll trust they know more than I do or even all the mock draft sites.

    I will add something about catchers: catching prospects are probably the hardest to "get right." Some that are "gotten right" end up being moved to other positions.

    Although I often frown on anecdotal evidence, like the case of Roger Clemens, think of all the highly or somewhat highly rated young catchers we've had in our system (some by trade) who flopped (some moved up after being drafted by showing promise in the minors or early majors- I won't add Salty to this list):

    Kole Cottam (130th pick in 2018.)
    Austin Rei (81st pick in 2015.)
    Jon Denny (81st pick in 2013.)
    Swihart (26th pick in 2011- man, that was THAT long ago?)
    Lavarnway (was a 6th rd pick, though with Federowicz taken the next rd.)
    Kottaras (PTBNL in David Wells trade, and he actually went on to put up some decent numbers in MLB after being waived.)
    Schoppach (The one we got right: we traded away. 2nd rd 2001.)
    Marzano (taken in first round back in 1984)
    Marc Sullivan (2nd rd in 1979)

    Note: We did take Carlton Fisk in the first round in 1967, and that worked out well, but that was so long ago.

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  9. #84
    I trust that Bloom will make the right decision at 4. His moves have been brilliant so far. And so if the Red Sox take the High School Shortstop at 4, over the catcher and Hoglund, that decision will be based on the belief that that Shortstop is supremely talented and too good to pass on.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fan_since_Boggs View Post
    I trust that Bloom will make the right decision at 4. His moves have been brilliant so far. And so if the Red Sox take the High School Shortstop at 4, over the catcher and Hoglund, that decision will be based on the belief that that Shortstop is supremely talented and too good to pass on.
    As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...
    Or, having cheap young players at key positions, you can afford to spend on FA pitchers.
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  12. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    As much as I would think this team needs to build up it's MiLB pitching, if they take a HS shortstop, I can see why. My first thought was "You don't build up your pitching by drafting high school shortstops," but maybe you do. If, say, Mayer or Lawlor (and/or Yorke) pan out at the lower levels and become ranked prospects, it is possible they can be dealt for a pitcher more established in the MiLB ranks or whom already has MLB experience, which is a lot less risky than taking even a college pitcher...
    Or a shortstop who develops into a Gold Glover at the most important position behind the mound; that guy could help a lot of pitchers.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by 5GoldGloves:OF,75 View Post
    Or a shortstop who develops into a Gold Glover at the most important position behind the mound; that guy could help a lot of pitchers.
    True, but right now the Sox have a lot of shortstops under 21 in the system. Lugo, Bonaci, Flores. They really only need one on hand for the parent club.

    Of course, "high school shortstop" often just means "best player on the team" and it's real common for those guys to find another position before they reach the Majors...

  14. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by notin View Post
    True, but right now the Sox have a lot of shortstops under 21 in the system. Lugo, Bonaci, Flores. They really only need one on hand for the parent club.

    Of course, "high school shortstop" often just means "best player on the team" and it's real common for those guys to find another position before they reach the Majors...
    Ya, I think it's a hardball rule for every legitimate high school prospect to play short... when he's not pitching.

  15. #90
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    Rocker to the Sox- hints at big drop off after pick 4...

    https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-po...draft-coverage
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