The Pesky Rays Won't Go Away

[moonslav59]

Back on that old website, I once started a thread about the Rays, in response to an annoying poster who kept claiming they "wilt in the dog days of summer."

They never did.

Here we are, again. After trading away Snell, and a key injuries to Yonny Chirinos (4th starter) and Nick Anderson (closer), many felt the Rays would be lucky to finish over .500 in 2021, let alone compete for a playoff slot, yet here we are. They also traded away their starting SS a few weeks ago, Wlly Adames.

It can't be smoke and mirrors, since these guys do it nearly every year. They play solid defense, run the bases well, and do all the things stats don't capture very well. They have a strong manager, coaching staff and GM. They develop young pitchers very well, and seem to have a knack for knowing just the right time to trade some of their best players right before the decline or even fall off the face of the earth. They also seem to know who to acquire right before they go on to have career years or resurgences.

If you look at the traditional ways we look at player stats, you'll see they have a deep and solid pen, this year, and their starters have done very well. Their hitting does not look all that great, but the whole league is in a funk over this new ball crap.

Here's a look at the Rays' numbers:

OPS (in order of most PAs, this season and 85+):

.778 Arozarena
.836 Meadows
.697 B Lowe
.686 Y Diaz
.662 Margot
.894 Wendle
.625 WAdams (traded)
.851 Zunino
.642 Phillips
.593 Brousseau
.545 Kiermaier
.750 Mejia
.462 Tsutsugo

As you can see, there is nothing here that looks like a first place team. 3 guys over .800 and just 2 others over .700. They don't have as many sub .600 players as some other teams, but nothing jumps out here.

Now, the pitching, which does look like a first place team's numbers:

(Listed by most IP and 10+ IP) ERA- Pitcher- WHIP

2.57 Glasnow 0.929
4.26 Yarrough 1.211
3.63 Rich Hill 1.019
2.88 Fleming 1.057
4.59 M Wacha 1.200
3.29 McClanahan 1.134
3.47 J Springs 1.029
2.31 Thompson 1.029
1.17 Kittredge 0.826
3.20 D Castillo 1.119
1.69 Stickland 1.250
4.02 C McHugh 1.404
3.60 L Patino 1.067 (10 day IL)
4.50 T Richards 1.000
8.49 C Mazza 1.714
(Cady Reed, Chris Archer, Caz Roe are on the 60 day IL with Chirionos)

Team numbers and rankings:

Offense
Runs: 264 (4th) BOS is 2nd with 267
OBP: .318 (10th) BOS is 7th at .321
SLG: .398 (13th) BOS is first at .447
OPS: .717 (12th) BOS is first at .769

Fielding:
DEF (fangraphs): 2.1 (11th) BOS is 15h at -0.1)
UZR/150: 4.7 (9th) BOS is 7th at 5.2
DRS: 28 (2nd in MLB) BOS is 20th at +3.

Pitching:
WAR: 5.5 (10th) BOS is 4th at 8.0
ERA-: 88 (7th) BOS is 8th at 90
xFIP-: 92 (7th) BOS is 10th at 95
WHIP: 1.12 (4th) BOS is 20th at 1.32
Saves: 16 (8 BS) tied with BOS at 4th. BOS has 7 BS

All-in-all, it looks like the Rays are here to stay. How much depth do they have? Can they handle another major injury?

We will be facing them, soon, and we better bring our A game.

[Thunder]

All I know is starting tomorrow, I am rooting for the Yankees!

[Bellhorn04]

The Rays are so hot, they look like they're going to win 120 games.

[moonslav59]

All I know is starting tomorrow, I am rooting for the Yankees!

Not me.

I hope the Rays sweep or take 3 of 4. A split would be nice for the short term.

[moonslav59]

[/B]

Bellhorn04[/B];1389443]The Rays are so hot, they look like they're going to win 120 games.

Sweeping Toronto in Canada was not easy, but the Mets, O’s and Royals were on the light side.

Let’s see what they do in the next few weeks:

4 @ NYY
3 @ TX

5 with WSH & BAL at home, then...

3@ CWS
4@ SEA
3 v BOS

[Nick]

Here we are, again. After trading away Snell, and a key injuries to Yonny Chirinos (4th starter) and Nick Anderson (closer), many felt the Rays would be lucky to finish over .500 in 2021, let alone compete for a playoff slot, yet here we are. They also traded away their starting SS a few weeks ago, Wlly Adames.

FanGraph had top 100 prospects list with 133 names.

Here are the hard facts.

Rays #1, #4, #12, #24
Sox #53, #54 (Downs and Casas) NO ONE ELSE listed out of 133 names.

Rays also own #84 and 7 ADDITIONAL PLAYERS ranked between 107 and 131. Unreal.

Bloom has his work cut out for him.

Anyone that thinks we should trade our future for a 2 month rental won't like what Bloom will do. Sit tight on Sox prospects (unless its younger guys for younger guys).

Bloom is undoing what DD did. Fortunately we did win a world series ring.

Yankees are getting older and Rays remain young and deadly.

[Nick]

Receiving Verdugo essentially for a rental in Betts (short season), trading away middle of the road relievers for Pivetta (and getting one back), trading away Beni for multiple prospects and grabbing a Rule 5 player off the Yankees are ways in which Sox and Bloom are enhancing our future. He's teaching us you don't have to buy all your good players. And when you do, you minimize risk by dealing out short term deals. (Richards, Ottavino)

[dgalehouse]

[/B]


Sweeping Toronto in Canada was not easy, but the Mets, O’s and Royals were on the light side.

Let’s see what they do in the next few weeks:

4 @ NYY
3 @ TX

5 with WSH & BAL at home, then...

3@ CWS
4@ SEA
3 v BOS

Florida , not Canada.

[moonslav59]

Rays are 15-1 in their last 16!

[moonslav59]

Here we are, again. After trading away Snell, and a key injuries to Yonny Chirinos (4th starter) and Nick Anderson (closer), many felt the Rays would be lucky to finish over .500 in 2021, let alone compete for a playoff slot, yet here we are. They also traded away their starting SS a few weeks ago, Wlly Adames.

FanGraph had top 100 prospects list with 133 names.

Here are the hard facts.

Rays #1, #4, #12, #24
Sox #53, #54 (Downs and Casas) NO ONE ELSE listed out of 133 names.

Rays also own #84 and 7 ADDITIONAL PLAYERS ranked between 107 and 131. Unreal.

Bloom has his work cut out for him.

Anyone that thinks we should trade our future for a 2 month rental won't like what Bloom will do. Sit tight on Sox prospects (unless its younger guys for younger guys).

Bloom is undoing what DD did. Fortunately we did win a world series ring.

Yankees are getting older and Rays remain young and deadly.

Hopefully, Bloom will get us to a point like the Rays are at, now.

We’ve started building the farm up, and hopefully this draft and IFA cycle will give us a big boost.

I think we’ll see our first major free agent additions, this winter, so maybe by next June, we can look at our total system- top to bottom- and smile.

[moonslav59]

Rays by Age in 2021:

OPS
<25 .671 (278 PAs)
26-30 .718 (1294)
31-35 .755 (262)
35+ n/a (1)

ERA
<25 3.14 (83 IP)
25-30 3.47 (267)
31-35 3.68 (81)
36+ 3.63 (52)


Some bright news...

SOX
OPS
<25 .871 (447 PAs)
26-30 .716 (1109)
31-35 .803 (379)
36+ n/a (0)

ERA
<25 2.68 (54 IP)
26-30 4.33 (199)
31-35 3.72 (203)
36+ n/a

[Nick]

I noted elsewhere that Ray's luxury tax payroll for 2021 is $83M compared to $205M for Sox and $207M for Yankees.

Top 4 earners for Rays are Kiermaier, $9M (21,22), Archer $6.5M (21), Glasnow $4.0M (A2), and Low $4M who has the longest contract, 21-24. Several players will go through multiple arb years. That's what they do. Keep churning/recycling players.

Yankees top 4 earners make combined $86M (Cole, Stanton, MeMahier, Hicks). Yanks are on the hooks for them through seasons 28, 27, 26 and 2025. On the horizon, Judge will become FA in 2023. He's earning $10.175M this year in his 2nd arb year. I can see a $30M deal, question is just the length.

Thus Yankees top 4 earn more than entire Rays. In fairness, we're also close.

Sox top earners are Sale ($25.6M thr 2024), Xander ($20M thr 2025). JD and Eovaldi earn $22M and $17M for next two years. Combined, they earn $84.6M, but the length of contracts are much shorter than Yankees top 4, 26 combined years for Yankees to 13 for Sox. We will have more flexibility than the Yankees.

So what? Rays have found a formula to be a playoff contender with limited resources. Not sure they can win a world series with that formula.

Yankees' payroll will continue to inflate, with looming free agency for Judge. I don't see anyway they won't pay what's needed to sign him to a long term deal. Other contracts will still be in place for 2023-2025 when Judge is signed, maybe $30M?. One contract drops off in 2026, 2027 and 2028 to alleviate payroll crunch.

Devers free agency will get here in 2024, but by then JD and Eovaldi contracts will have expired after 2023 season. Moreover, Dustin's $13.75M drops off after this year, Price's $16M drops off after 2022 along with JD/Eovaldi contracts, $39M combined. That's total of near $70M. I get it that we'll have to replace JD/Eovaldi. Obviously Dustin and Price have both been replaced already.

Perhaps some of our younger kids can replace JD/Eovaldi and several of one/two year deals currently in place, Ottavino,Richards and Perez come to mind. That will be the key to afford Sox to go after an 'ace'. If that comes internally, great.

I like our position better than the Yankees going forward. That's a quite a turnaround after last season.

[moonslav59]

I noted elsewhere that Ray's luxury tax payroll for 2021 is $83M compared to $205M for Sox and $207M for Yankees.

Top 4 earners for Rays are Kiermaier, $9M (21,22), Archer $6.5M (21), Glasnow $4.0M (A2), and Low $4M who has the longest contract, 21-24. Several players will go through multiple arb years. That's what they do. Keep churning/recycling players.

Yankees top 4 earners make combined $86M (Cole, Stanton, MeMahier, Hicks). Yanks are on the hooks for them through seasons 28, 27, 26 and 2025. On the horizon, Judge will become FA in 2023. He's earning $10.175M this year in his 2nd arb year. I can see a $30M deal, question is just the length.

Thus Yankees top 4 earn more than entire Rays. In fairness, we're also close.

Sox top earners are Sale ($25.6M thr 2024), Xander ($20M thr 2025). JD and Eovaldi earn $22M and $17M for next two years. Combined, they earn $84.6M, but the length of contracts are much shorter than Yankees top 4, 26 combined years for Yankees to 13 for Sox. We will have more flexibility than the Yankees.

So what? Rays have found a formula to be a playoff contender with limited resources. Not sure they can win a world series with that formula.

Yankees' payroll will continue to inflate, with looming free agency for Judge. I don't see anyway they won't pay what's needed to sign him to a long term deal. Other contracts will still be in place for 2023-2025 when Judge is signed, maybe $30M?. One contract drops off in 2026, 2027 and 2028 to alleviate payroll crunch.

Devers free agency will get here in 2024, but by then JD and Eovaldi contracts will have expired after 2023 season. Moreover, Dustin's $13.75M drops off after this year, Price's $16M drops off after 2022 along with JD/Eovaldi contracts, $39M combined. That's total of near $70M. I get it that we'll have to replace JD/Eovaldi. Obviously Dustin and Price have both been replaced already.

Perhaps some of our younger kids can replace JD/Eovaldi and several of one/two year deals currently in place, Ottavino,Richards and Perez come to mind. That will be the key to afford Sox to go after an 'ace'. If that comes internally, great.

I like our position better than the Yankees going forward. That's a quite a turnaround after last season.

We are positioned well.

Bloom only signed one player to more than 1 year, and that was Hernandez to just 2 years. Richards and Perez have option years, Renfroe has arb years left and we lose a lot of salary, this winter, with only ERod and Barnes tough to replace (or re-sign).

Our highest need areas line up with our highest ranked prospects:

OF: Duran (Jimenez)

1B: Casas

2B: Downs (Yorke)

SP: Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, Ward (Mata & A Ramirez)

[Nick]

We are positioned well.

Bloom only signed one player to more than 1 year, and that was Hernandez to just 2 years. Richards and Perez have option years, Renfroe has arb years left and we lose a lot of salary, this winter, with only ERod and Barnes tough to replace (or re-sign).

Our highest need areas line up with our highest ranked prospects:

OF: Duran (Jimenez)

1B: Casas

2B: Downs (Yorke)

SP: Whitlock, Houck, Seabold, Ward (Mata & A Ramirez)

It's been a quick turnaround for sure without adding lengthy contracts or trading away prospects. No matter how it ends this season, we're much improved.

[Nick]

I would love to hear from Jacksonianmarch, my favorite Yankee poster, laying out his views projecting Sox and the Yankees roster makeup going forward with payroll implications.